2024 wrap and 2025 predictions (TLP 2024w52)

Wrapping up 2024 trends in technology, business, and the economy, and making 2025 predictions. Notes: Wrapping up 2024 trends in technology, business, and the economy, and making 2025 predictions. It is important to state that these predictions are not what I want to happen, but are instead what I think will happen. Therefore they are not my opinions. 2024 predictions revisited: e/acc versus decel will become more vocal. With the election victory of Donald Trump and US tech leaders, especially Elon Musk, siding with him, I think this year has largely been victorious for the e/acc side. Senior tech leaders are now realizing that they need to get their hands on legislative powers, as those powers have been used against them in the past too often. An example of this is the DOGE initiative lead by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, with the aim of reducing government red tape and bureaucracy in the US. Result: prediction met, with a win on the e/acc side. Nuclear will make a comeback. One interesting trend this year was data center owners taking power supply into their own hands, by investing in small nuclear reactor technologies. These reactors are called Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). In an unprecedented example of "build your own infrastructure", they no longer trust governments to provide reliable, cheap energy. Amazon for example announced such an investment in October 2024. Ref: https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/sustainability/amazon-nuclear-small-modular-reactor-net-carbon-zero Result: prediction met, and this trend will continue in 2025. Main stream media will be gamed by generative AI. I have been unable to find evidence of this in 2025, either because people are too wise to images and videos generated by AI, or because the results are not good enough yet to fool them on a large scale. Result: prediction not met, but maybe in the near future? The EU will continue to regulate tech. With the Digital Services Act in 2022 (Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Services_Act) and the Digital Markets Act of 2023 (Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act), the EU is already ramping up pressure on tech companies operating in the EU. The EU moves slowly like all large bureaucracies, but it is only a matter of time before they start to impose fines on large tech companies using these legislations. In the meantime, legal firms around the EU are making a fortune helping firms to prepare for compliance. It is GDPR all over again, only more far-reaching. The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) have published a great overview of the legislations here: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/12/eu-tech-regulation-good-intentions-unclear-consequences-2024-year-review Result: prediction met. Free speech restrictions will drive more people to VPNs and anonymous services. The biggest surprise for me this year has been the UK, which has made a sharp turn towards authoritarianism under the new Labour government lead by Sir Keir Starmer. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer In a remarkable turn of events after Brexit, the UK is now arguably the most heavy-handed European country for regulating its own citizens free speech online, with many high-profile cases ending up with prosecutions and prison time. Result: prediction met. 2025 predictions: America first. The Donald Trump election victory marks a return to insular foreign policies and protectionism. Ireland will be impacted if corporation tax is reduced in the US. The Empire strikes back. DOGE efforts will run aground when unions and other employee legislations prevent mass lay-offs. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency The "Deep State" civil service is too entrenched to be unraveled in a single term. I suspect these efforts will get bogged down next year. AGI will continue to disappoint. I recorded an episode previously about the lack of a "Moore's Law" for AI (ref: https://techleader.pro/a/658-There-is-no-Moore's-Law-for-AI-(TLP-2024w35)), and how OpenAI model growth is already slowing down. "AGI is near" is the new "Singularity is near". While recent growth in generative AI has been remarkable, we are still decades out from AGI. Woke media is dead. The final sting of a dying bee. Most people want to be entertained, not preached to. They are voting with their pockets. I expected large gaming and Hollywood companies to pivot back to their historical center grounds next year. The EU will continue to swing Right. Immigration policies and a lack of policing is spurring the growth of ring-wing parties across the EU. The Left offer no solutions to these problems, but offer more of the same. Across the EU several incumbent government parties at at risk, look to Germany first, then France. The above predictions are just for fun, and are not met as advice to take actions or investment decisions. Happy New Year! Notes and subscription links are here: https://techleader.pro/a/673-2024-wrap-and-2025-predictions-(TLP-2024w52)