2026 Market Shock: Adam Johnson Predicts a 20% Drop and a Massive Rally?

In this week’s episode, we sit down with Adam Johnson, Portfolio Manager of the Bullseye American Ingenuity Fund and author of the widely followed Bullseye Brief. Adam brings his signature 1980’s Wall St. energy as we dive deep into current market dynamics, the power (and pitfalls) of short sellers, the AI productivity boom, inflation surprises, and what investors should brace for in 2026. We kick things off with Adam sharing some of his biggest surprises from the past year—including why several of his high‑conviction names stalled out despite strong fundamentals. From Toast to SMCI, Adam breaks down how aggressive short-selling and the removal of the SEC’s old “uptick rule” have reshaped market behavior in the age of algorithmic trading. From there, we zoom out to the macro landscape: Why falling oil prices were the real inflation antidote in 2025 How AI is already creating meaningful productivity gains Why profit margins remain at historic highs despite tariffs, geopolitical tension, & political chaos And why, even after a massive run, the AI trade may only be in a consolidation phase—not the end of the story Then we look ahead. Adam reveals his two biggest predictions for 2026: 1. A market that climbs far higher than anyone expects thanks to accelerating earnings and a surprisingly strong U.S. economy. 2. A political “blue wave” scare in Q2 that could spark a sudden 20% pullback—only to set up an even more powerful rally as spending ramps up. We also get into: Whether oil is headed for the low $50s—and why that could be wildly bullish The “everything rally” and where value, growth, international, and commodities fit in now Why investor sentiment still isn’t too hot… and why that matters The biggest real risks no one is talking about How to stay disciplined when the market tries to shake you out Finally, Adam shares the moment he knew he’d fully matured as a portfolio manager—and why long-term conviction is the ultimate superpower in the face of noise. This is one of our most wide-ranging, high-energy conversations of the year. If you care about where markets are headed—and how to position for the year ahead—you don’t want to miss it.