2026 YTD Recap: Six Weeks, One Thesis Confirmed

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, February 6, 2026 — Bonus Episode: 2026 Year-to-Date Recap. SIX WEEKS IN. 25 EPISODES. ONE THESIS CONFIRMED. THE DECOUPLING THESIS: From day one of 2026, we called it. Bearish crude, bullish natural gas. Short crude rallies, accumulate gas on dips. Six weeks later, the data confirms everything. CRUDE OIL JOURNEY: - Week 1: WTI opened $57.41. Brent $60.85. Digesting 2025's 20% crash. - Week 2: OPEC+ Jan 4 freeze delivered exactly as predicted. 1.65M bpd cuts locked. - Week 3: WTI spiked to $62 on Iran tensions. We called it a sell. Collapsed to $59.22. - Week 4: IEA confirmed 3.84M bpd surplus. WTI crashed to $59.33. - Week 5: Geographic features week. Pre-recorded. - Week 6: WTI CRASHED 5% Monday from $66.51 to $62.25. $63-64 resistance held. Gasoline inventories 257.9M — highest since June 2020. EIA FORECAST: $52 average for 2026. Current price 17% premium. NATURAL GAS JOURNEY: - Week 1: $3.44, down 5% on warm weather. - Week 4: EXPLODED 70% on brutal cold snap. Highest since 2022. - Week 6: $3.34-$3.46. Storage draw 379 Bcf. LNG 18.3 bcfd near record. EIA FORECAST: $3.50 avg 2026, $4.60 for 2027. THE SCORECARD: ✅ OPEC+ freeze: CORRECT ✅ Crude surplus: CONFIRMED ✅ Gas buy on dips: EXECUTED (70% spike) ✅ $63-64 resistance: HELD ✅ Decoupling thesis: CONFIRMED Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]