2030 Reinsurance Predictions We Might Regret | TRP #174

Jerad and Ben skip the small talk and jump straight to 2030, asking the one question worth asking about AI and reinsurance: what actually changes, and what's just getting a shinier coat of paint. They cover cat models, capital allocation, contract structuring, dying market standards, and an industry expense ratio that's somehow gone up instead of down. No guest this week — just two hosts making predictions they might regret.WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:Why AI-driven cat modeling might be the one part of reinsurance that actually gets faster and better, not just differentWhy the relationship-driven, napkin-deal side of the business probably won't look any different in 2030Why the market's expense ratio has crept up instead of down despite a decade of technology investment, and what that says about how the industry should be valuing tech spend in the first placeWhy rigid market standards and clause libraries might not survive contact with natural language processingWhy nobody's handing a nine-figure placement to an autonomous agent any time soon, and where automation actually helps insteadCONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: ⁠[email protected]⁠Website: ⁠https://www.supercede.com⁠ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehq X: ⁠https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQ⁠ YouTube:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQ⁠ RSS Feed: ⁠https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss⁠ OUTLINE & TIMESTAMPS:00:00 Intro01:09 Has reinsurance actually changed by 203002:11 Cat models get the biggest AI upgrade in the industry04:44 How AI reshapes reinsurer portfolio and capital strategy05:46 Why brokers couldn't care less whose paper it is07:21 Alternative capital's coopetition with reinsurers08:06 Testing five contract structures before lunch10:48 The expense ratio problem nobody in reinsurance can explain12:25 What Silicon Valley's AI spend says about return on investment14:50 Is AI reinsurance's Concorde, or its Metaverse18:23 Why natural language could kill reinsurance market standards21:53 Would you hand a $50m placement to an autonomous agent25:07 The most impactful reinsurance app was never built for reinsurance26:53 Monte Carlo, quants, and the last of the 2030 predictions