24th February 2026 – Tariff, Private Credit & Software Uncertainty drives market lower

In this episode, Mark Gardner discusses heightened market uncertainty driven by tariff concerns, fears of AI disruption (particularly from Anthropic's agentic AI tools impacting software incumbents like Oracle, IBM, CrowdStrike, Apple, and potentially payment networks like Mastercard and Visa), and private credit jitters (including Blue Owl halting redemptions amid software sector exposure and liquidity worries). While acknowledging overreactions in some areas and strong defensive moats in regulated or high-stakes sectors, he advises caution, selective buying on dips via dollar-cost averaging or staged entries rather than broad ETFs, and a risk-off stance given upcoming events like Nvidia earnings, multiple Fed speakers, Trump's State of the Union, and various company reports.Key Takeaways:1. Software sector hammered overnight due to Anthropic's perceived threats in agentic AI, hitting names like Oracle, IBM (-13%), CrowdStrike, and Apple; claims of disruption seen as overstated for many with strong moats.2. Private credit concerns rising from lender exposure to battered software; Blue Owl halting redemptions flagged as a major warning sign ("owl in the mineshaft"), with potential defaults feared up to 8% in worst-case scenarios.3. AI disruption narrative spreading sector-by-sector via looped AI-generated research and social media; genuine moats (regulatory, secure data, medical, low-error tolerance) remain largely impenetrable.4. Buying opportunity ahead for select software stocks with multiple defenses, but avoid catching falling knives—prefer staged entries (4-5 clips) waiting for stabilisation rather than broad ETFs.5. Positive notes include Woodside's strong results (production/cost/FCF beats), gold/silver/copper resilience, and lithium/Bitcoin strength amid broader risk-off tone.6. Upcoming catalysts to watch — Nvidia earnings, Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Bostic etc.), Trump's State of the Union, plus earnings from WiseTech, Fortescue, Woolworths, Salesforce; expect continued uncertainty and volatility.