EPISODE · Aug 18, 2026 · 3 MIN
260818-短期加息概率下降,保住了上周的上涨
from 蘸糖金闻-黄金追踪分析 · host Monica.D.S
美联储鹰派立场: 新任主席Kevin Warsh偏鹰，利率维持3.5%-3.75% 加息风险: CME FedWatch显示35.8%加息概率 30年期美债收益率: 5.275%，高位压制金价 ETF资金流出: 黄金ETF持续赎回，90天资金流转负 美元强势: DXY指数维持高位 央行持续购金: 中国连续20个月增持，全球央行Q1净买入244吨 地缘政治风险: 中东局势、俄乌冲突持续 去美元化趋势: 黄金占全球官方储备27%，首次超过美债 亚洲实物需求: 印度、中国节假日需求旺盛 机构看多: 高盛4,900、摩根大通4,900、摩根大通4,500-$6,000年末目标
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260818-短期加息概率下降,保住了上周的上涨
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