260821-阶梯拉升,短期谨慎布局

黄金强势突破，国际现货金价站上4,500美元关口并创11周新高（最高约4,540），纽约期金逼近4,540），纽约期金逼近4,586；国内沪金主力大涨至981元/克，逼近千元关口。核心驱动为美联储9月加息预期大幅降温（按兵不动概率升至71%）叠加美元指数跌至5个月新低。但10年期美债收益率仍处4.7%高位、短线涨幅过快（单月+12%），追高风险与回调需求并存。策略上"顺势但不追高"，回踩低吸为主。

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260821-阶梯拉升,短期谨慎布局

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