#262: How to trust your trading system

Simon Shares

• Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) announced that former CEO Basson would be exercising a put option to company forcing it to buy back some R1.8billion of Shoprite shares. No problem, except did we know about this put structure? They say it was part of his December 2003 employment contract, but the annual reports of 2003/4/5 make no mention of it?
• Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), horror update. They are really struggling.
• Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL). Everybody wants to know if I am selling, why would I be selling? Just because the price is down?
• Rational Intuitive, what type of investor are you? 

* I hold ungeared positions.

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How to trust your trading system

Time and discipline is the best way to trust. My lazy system is now some 12 years old, so I know to trust it. But how do you get to trust a new system?

I like the approach suggested by Mark Douglas in his book, Trading in the Zone.

• Back test (eye ball) at least twenty past trades.
• Paper trade twenty at least trades.
• Do twenty live trades with small capital amount.

Now you have a system with sixty 'trades' and you know if it works and can trust it.

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Andy

• NFEMOM*, I know you hold it, was just interested in your thoughts on the costs. Expensive, no? Annualised TER 0.37% Transaction Cost 1.20% Effective Annual Cost (EAC) 1.57%.

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