#381 Peter Grandich: Why the U.S. Stock Market's Biggest Tailwind Is About to Reverse

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6Timestamps: 00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"13:11 — Taxes17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails30:40 — Gold32:00 — Spend less than you make33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk38:38 — The craps table metaphor41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"