#515 The Property Markets That Aren't Falling w. Louis Christopher

Everyone's calling it a crash. Louis Christopher runs SQM Research, one of Australia's biggest property data houses, and he says that word is wrong. What we're in is the largest downturn in 10 to 15 years, but the one ingredient every genuine housing crash has ever needed is missing here. Louis breaks down where the market actually is, which cities are falling hardest, and which pockets are barely moving at all. We get into what the budget's tax changes are really doing to investor behaviour, why rents have stalled when everyone expected them to spike, and what he'd buy if he were putting money in today.   WHAT YOU'LL GET OUT OF IT The difference between a correction and a crash, and why a 10% property fall hurts more than a 10% sharemarket fall Why Australia isn't set up for a US or Ireland style collapse The city by city forecasts for the rest of the year What happened to rents after the negative gearing changes, and why the answer is more concerning than it looks Which markets are holding up, and the ones carrying the most risk right now How long this downturn runs, and what the long term growth rate looks like from here Whether the 6.8% long term average still holds   CHAPTERS 00:00  Intro 00:25  Where the property market actually is right now 02:24  Crash or correction, and why the difference matters 03:15  Why a 10% property fall hurts more than a 10% sharemarket fall 04:00  How APRA and the RBA really behave in a downturn 05:00  How long downturns last, and why this one is structural 06:30  What the budget tax changes did to the investor maths 08:45  The flow-on to the economy and state budgets 11:25  Rents went up $2 a week, and why that is the worrying part 13:00  Which suburbs are most exposed 16:18  Semi-rural and lifestyle property, and the risk nobody prices 18:09  Airbnb income and the wealth effect 19:00  The city by city forecasts 21:08  Adelaide and Perth 26:02  What actually drives values over the long term 28:37  How people are coping with record rents 30:17  Population growth and the 6.8% question 34:52  Where Louis put his own money Smarter money moves start here. Learn how to cut through the noise, avoid expensive mistakes, and get ahead faster. FREE 7-DAY MONEY CHALLENGES Pick one and see what changes in a week: https://pivotwealth.com.au/challenges/ WORK WITH US Book a no-strings call: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/booking More about Pivot Wealth: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au BEN'S BOOKS Virgin Millionaire: https://amzn.to/3VFPPDM Replace Your Salary by Investing: https://amzn.to/3J9Ta8g Get Unstuck: https://amzn.to/3xo0MQG All books: https://www.pivotwealth.com.au/books FOLLOW Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pivotben TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@bentalksmoney YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/BenNashPivot Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pivotwealth/ DISCLAIMER This podcast is for education only and doesn't take into account your personal circumstances. It's not financial advice. If you buy a financial product, read the PDS and TMD, and seek advice tailored to your situation. Ben Nash and Pivot Wealth are authorised representatives of Fish Tacos Pty Ltd, ABN 14 649 248 082, AFSL 533055.