7-9-26 Yield Curve Warnings - Signal or False Alarm

Flattening yield curves, violent sector rotations, and shifting market leadership often trigger recession headlines—but do they really predict when markets will peak? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz look at why investors frequently confuse condition indicators with timing indicators. While yield curve flattening and rapid rotations between growth and value stocks can reveal that the market environment is changing, they don't tell you exactly when a recession or bear market will begin. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Markets' Response to Hormuz Limbo 5:54 - Consolidation Patterns Remain Unchanged 11:24 - The Risk of Continuing Iran Conflict 14:58 - The Ambiguous Fed 16:43 - Chip Stocks' Behavior 18:16 - Market Volatility is Low 21:35 - SEC Rules Changes & Liquidity 23:24 - The Japanese Yen & Carry Trade 29:58 - Japan's "Trolly Car" Problem & Risk to U.S. 32:47 - Yield Curve Warnings 37:43 - Long- or Short-duration Bonds? 40:05 - What's the Real Yield? 42:00 - Why Own Bonds Now? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO,w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/oFqAQg5DkiI ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Breakout Still Waiting," https://youtu.be/hGKaEy7tJiY ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday - Markets, Rates, and Risk" https://youtube.com/live/ua-paCoNRwo ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Are Flattening Curves And Style Rotations Deceptive Omens?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/are-flattening-curves-and-style-rotations-deceptive-omens/ 'The Low VIX Hides Fierce Undercurrents" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-low-vix-hides-fierce-undercurrents/ "The Yen At 40-Year Lows: Should You Care?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-yen-at-40-year-low-should-you-care/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Premarket #SP500 #Semiconductors #Investing #YieldCurve #Recession #RiskManagement