A good day to be Xi
from General Offensive - General Uprising Hosted by Lynette Nusbacher
The dogged insistence by one of my Israeli national security professional friends that the war aim really was regime change? It’s a bit more understandable now. It’s what Netanyahu briefed to POTUS, and in spite of Ratcliff of the CIA now saying it had been ‘farcical’ and Rubio of Foggy Bottom saying it was ‘b******t’, POTUS went for it. If we’ve avoided a global economic downturn by freezing the war with a bit of a ceasefire, perhaps it will be worth the price of losing the Strait of Hormuz as an international waterway and letting the Iranians charge $2M a bottom to let ships through. The winners in the short term are Israel, who have got a much weaker regional rival. In the medium term, the present Iranian regime appears to be solidly in control even if the IRGC is comparatively more powerful and the Supreme Leader appears to be a bit of a figurehead. Of course the big winners in this are the Reliable Superpower: China. They didn’t start this war, but they appear to have dodged significant economic damage, and will increase their influence in the region at America’s expense. Russia hasn’t done badly, though the sudden popularity of the Ukrainians in the Middle East has got to be a little unsettling to the Kremlin. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe
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