AB InBev (BUD): Reported EPS $1.90, Real EPS $1.21 — Half the Growth Was the Dollar | Q2 2026

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) Q2 2026 — Revenue $16,660M, +5.6% ORGANIC but +11.0% REPORTED. Normalized EBITDA $5,938M +5.8% organic, margin 35.6% (+4bps). Underlying EPS $1.21, +23.4% reported but only +12.9% constant currency. Reported EPS $1.90, flattered by a $1,402M mark-to-market gain on ABI's own share price. FY26 EBITDA guidance REAFFIRMED at 4-8%, not raised. ADR closed +1.50% at $86.14, a 52-week high; the Brussels line closed DOWN 0.19%. AB InBev's Q2 2026 produced three different earnings numbers and they are all in the same release. Underlying EPS $1.21, up 23.4% as reported and up 12.9% in constant currency — meaning 45% of the headline growth was the dollar, not the beer. Reported EPS $1.90, more than double last year, because a $1,402M mark-to-market gain on derivatives hedging ABI's own share-based pay ran through the P&L when its stock rose. Underneath: Latin America is a machine (Middle Americas EBITDA +10.3% at a 50.3% margin), while the US delivered +0.1% EBITDA growth on STRs of -1.9%, and China's EBITDA fell 16.1%. Our DCF lands at ~$87 against an $86.14 close. That is a one percent gap. HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD BUSINESS, CORRECTLY PRICED) — base-case value ~$88.0 vs ~$86.14 today. KEY METRICS: - 1 BUD ADS = 1 ABI ordinary share; AB InBev reports in USD — no conversion needed - Revenue $16,660M: +5.6% ORGANIC vs +11.0% REPORTED ($822M of the $1,656M increase was FX) - Volumes +0.9% organic; revenue per hl +4.2% — ~75% of growth is price, not beer - Normalized EBITDA $5,938M +5.8% organic; margin 35.6% +4bps — H1 margin -5bps - Underlying EPS $1.21: +23.4% reported but +12.9% constant FX — 45% was the dollar - Reported EPS $1.90: profit $3,751M incl. a $1,402M gain on ABI's OWN share price - Normalized ETR 26.1% vs reported ETR 18.7% (derivative gains are non-taxable) - Middle Americas $5,091M +9.8%, EBITDA +10.3% at a 50.3% margin — now the largest zone - South America $2,961M +7.6%, EBITDA +14.3%, margin +171bps — the best profit line - North America $4,039M +2.6%, EBITDA +0.5%, margin -74bps; US STRs -1.9%, US EBITDA +0.1% - Asia Pacific $1,648M -2.8%, EBITDA -10.9%, margin -269bps; China volumes -9.7%, EBITDA -16.1% - Megabrands +6.2%: Corona +17%, Stella +19%, Michelob Ultra +21% outside home markets - No-alcohol beer +27%, Beyond Beer +44%; BEES carries 72% of revenue, $15.0bn GMV +16% - H1 free cash flow $3,881M vs $1,355M; H1 cash from operations $5,241M vs $2,704M - Net debt $64.2bn — UP from $60.9bn at Dec-25 — but net debt/EBITDA 2.86x vs 3.27x - $3,389M on minority buy-ins vs $1,301M buyback; $1.9bn of the $6bn programme done - FY26 guidance REAFFIRMED not raised: EBITDA +4-8%, ETR 26-28%, capex $3.5-4.0bn - FY23/24/25 revenue $59.4/$59.8/$59.3bn — flat; EBITDA margin 33.6% -> 35.8% - Valuation: FY26E underlying EPS ~$4.50 -> 19.1x forward; EV $234.4bn = ~10.1x FY26E EBITDA - Our DCF at 8.0%: bear $60 / base $88 / bull $120 (base is $112 at 7.0%, $70 at 9.0%) - Reverse DCF: $86.14 implies 2.6% perpetual FCF growth at 8%, or an 8.1% discount rate on our path What to watch: Bull: China volumes turning flat or positive (Asia Pacific EBITDA -10.9% is a 269bp drag that would reverse fast), plus US EBITDA growing actual profit dollars rather than share points. Both, and fair value moves toward $100. Bear: FY26 EBITDA landing in the lower half of the 4-8% band as the tax rate steps up to 26-28%; the buyback continuing at 32%-in-nine-months while net debt stays above $64bn; or the dollar strengthening, which takes reported growth back to the constant-currency rate. Any two and fair value is in the low seventies. Real buyers near $72. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.