AERO Stock: Aeroméxico Posted Record Revenue — and Still Lost $58 Million

Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO) Q2 2026 — Aeroméxico posted a record second-quarter revenue of $1.479B (+12.6%) on capacity up just 1.9% — and still swung to a $58M net loss, as jet fuel expense jumped 79.9% to $494M. The stock fell 8.5% to $15.30, now 25% below its November IPO price. Aeroméxico's board policy permits hedging 40-60% of its jet fuel. It has hedged ZERO for six straight years — and this was the quarter fuel doubled. But the fuel shock isn't the real story: Delta ate the same 75% fuel spike and still earned $1.4B pre-tax. Aeroméxico's $68M of operating income didn't cover HALF of its $136M interest bill. Fuel was the trigger; the post-Chapter-11 balance sheet was the loaded gun. Meanwhile it trades at ~3.4x EV/EBITDAR vs 5.6-6.6x for Copa and Volaris, with an Eleventh Circuit ruling on the Delta joint venture due any day and a Volaris-Viva merger that would control ~69% of Mexican domestic traffic. Our base case: $21.50. THE CALL: SPECULATIVE BUY (3/5, A LEVERED BET ON JET FUEL) — base-case value ~$21.50 vs ~$15.30 today. What to watch: the price of jet fuel, the Eleventh Circuit ruling on the Delta joint venture, and whether management finally announces a fuel hedging program Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.