If a good time sounds like... Or golden hour tastes like... And getting back to yourself feels like... You've got a sense of New Brunswick.
Welcome in! Saturday episode, Jason Moore. We get crazy on the weekend boys, so... Do we?
What? I do. I'm just saying. What do you have planned?
Well, listen to the episode, find out. We get crazy on the weekend with our AFC East takes. That's right. That's right.
No holds barred today. Okay. Well, I'll be curious to hear who you predict to win the division. You're not curious who I predict to lose and finish last night's division?
I'm not as curious about that. You're locked in for third, guys. Oh, you want to find out who you have? Jason's third place pick.
I had Kyle do the math for last year. One point per correct prediction in each division. I didn't know what the results were going to be, but I kind of know. I ended up winning last year's competition, so I have something to repeat.
You did. It's tough. It's tough to nail these down because there's a huge thing every year. Yeah, and it won't be the Patriots, but I do think that whoever is number one in this division, I don't know your guys' rankings here, but it's very interesting, a very tight division.
We like to keep these competitive. And the truth is, on this show, when we do these divisional breakdowns, it's like, I don't hear from people on Twitter about, oh, cool, you pick my team to win the division. I just hear from the fans of the team that has to end up at the bottom and how dumb we are. I think you only hear that when it's a top to bottom, difficult division.
Right? Like we didn't hear it with Tennessee. No, that's fair. I heard it about Cincinnati.
We're not going to hear what the Patriots. So we're talking AFC East today. I'd like you to believe in the back of your mind that I'm, I picked them to win the division. I just want you to think that.
Last year, Jason and I were apparently perfect in this division on the Buffalo, Miami, New York, New England order. So we'll see if that ends up being- You perfectly projected the demise of Aaron Rodgers in. Yeah, Jason and I had some inside information. Well, I was a little sad if you rewind the tape.
I was destined to- Oh, I know why, yeah. Yeah, because I believe Aaron Rodgers was already done. Like from his final season in Green Bay- Yeah, you're predicting a subpar year and now you didn't get to see it. Right.
Well, I mean, it was pretty bad. Yeah, but a different kind of subpar. You wanted a selfish victory lap. Yeah, and I'm not going to victory lap on an injury.
So- You're a man of principle. Yeah, now it's funny because now I want to root for him just to come back like to, you know, come back from the injury. I don't think it's going to happen. But like now that he had the devastating- Wait, he's an underdog now?
So you're on his side? Yeah, well, I am betting against the man, but I'm rooting for him. You could do that. I don't even know what that means.
Yeah, but then you're like rooting against yourself to lose. That's tough. Well, I mean, we're going to talk about it. I just want to do that.
I'm rooting for him to lose every day. A lot of therapy, Mike. Ultimate Draft Kid.com. Go check it out.
Draft Analyzer live right now. And you can jump in there, check out all of our tiered rankings and a ton of tools and resources. Get your team great at import your mock draft. See how you did.
This is the time of year as well. Like obviously we've got our tiered rankings there. That's how you want to draft is from tears. But this is the time of year where you, you know, your draft probably isn't tomorrow.
And so you can watch all the player profile videos. It's like getting, you know, 100 more hours of this show just talking about every single player. It's a great way to prep. All right.
Quick question of the day before we jump into the AFC East Divisional Breakdown. I think it's a fun one. As of right now, looking at where the landscape is in fantasy and where players are going, what's the, who's the player you're most scared to take? Who's the player you're most scared to draft?
Yeah, Mike, go ahead. I will throw out Drake London because he, a great philosopher says all the time he was drafted to be great. I know that guy. And we have seen, like it hasn't been, been nothing from Drake London.
Some guys at this point, like, you know, look, Jameson Williams, we've really seen nothing. He's not Breshed Perryman. Right. We have, we've seen a handful of games where he really takes over.
He has a huge performance. He's kind of like a reason that the offense succeeds and then they win the game. But we have also seen lots and lots of failure. Like he did not, he barely surpassed 900 yards, which he did miss a game, but counting stats, he was barely over 900 yards.
Meanwhile, Adam Thelin, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, they all managed to surpass 1000 yards and they were also dealing with really, really bad quarterback play. So the fact that we haven't seen it. And now it's, it's in the, you're giving a second round pick to get Drake London, which he's like, I think he's good. And you're betting on cousins returning with Achilles.
There's so much up in the air and it's such an expensive pick for a guy where you feel like you haven't seen enough. Like to me, Garrett Wilson, I guess we're gonna talk about the Jets. But it's like, I've seen enough from Garrett Wilson to go, that's, that's a dude. Drake London, I'm like, I think it's interesting.
So you're not necessarily willing to give him the free pass some fantasy players are giving him on quarterback play. It reminds me of how we thought of DJ Moore for a little while and how we thought of Terry McQuarren for a little while where, I mean, those are two really, really good players that we had seen it. That we had seen in little flashes. And everybody wanted to elevate them in draft in the draft 80 P and like for Terry, like DJ Moore, it finally happened.
He did, or Terry McQuarren were still waiting for it to happen. And like that's the path that Drake London is on right now. Jason, who are you most afraid to draft? Mine is wild.
I mean, this, this should be like a wild card type of player. It's crazy on the way again. I just, yeah, I told you every single year, there seems like there is a player where you go. We should have seen this come.
We should have seen how great it was going to be. It was clear. It was obvious. It was when Stafford came and you have Stafford and McVay and Cooper cop together and you're like, they're 80 P's were really low.
And it was like, after every time we do a mock draft or something, it'd be like, you know, this might just work. No, this is just going to work because you got McVay. And so there's a player out there that is just like when he has a monster unbelievable season and is a top three running back, you can look out there and go, of course, we should have seen this coming. I'm imagining that you'd make a very complicated robust argument and never tell the audience the name and we move on and they just sit there going, did he say it?
Because the other side of the argument is at the end of the year, we're going to be able to do that. It's like, you know, it's not going to work. It's at the end of the year. There's always like, those players are like, we knew, you know, Alexander Madison.
It's like, you know, that's not going to work. It's the bad idea. It's just like, you know, it's like, you know, like, zoom your right this year. It's like, you can bet on it.
It's not going to work. It just never works, those type of players. And this is, I have the same fear. I thought I'm set by the same exact fears of the same guy where it's like, clearly, this isn't going to work.
And also, obviously, it's going to be great. It's the Von H fan. Yeah. The 80 Biddy running back who dominated NFL defenders last year, if you had, I had him on a bunch of rosters, every time he touches the ball, it was like, the defense can't handle this guy.
They can't catch up with him. If he has any kind of Chris, he is going, he's in the perfect scheme fit. And you have to spin for him in draft. So it stands the reason you be afraid to waste the pick.
So he's going right now as the running back. Oh, my gosh, which I want you to spend it, but hold on. I just want to give you. So top 10 that the top 10 running backs, this was the average of opportunities it took.
Oh, that's here. He's got these as a top ten. No. 240 attempts and 66 targets.
That was the average of the top ten. That was the average of the top ten. Of the top ten. Now look, you've got Christian McCaffrey taking that thing to the limit, but it's an average of the top ten.
And he's being drafted as that. 306 opportunities. And Devon H.N. is not the guy who needs 300 opportunities, obviously, because he was in...
He was about to see a first game average of opportunities. He finished top 24 last year with 100 attempts for 800 targets and 37 targets. So about 140 opportunities. Yeah.
If you look at 12.7 per game in the games you played. Did you take out the two games where he was like 5%? No, I didn't. Because I said 15.1 opportunities in nine full games.
Oh, there you go. So it's just it will... Will he stay healthy? Will he get all of those opportunities?
Well, he most of those great. At least it was last year. Will his body hold up to those opportunities? He does not need those opportunities.
If he gets 250 opportunities, which was kind of what he was pacing as a rookie, he will absolutely return. It's will he stay healthy? And the thing is, is I want A-chan on my roster. Like I'm in.
I'm willing to pull the trigger. But I really want him as my second running bag. And he's not. He's the RBL.
Hey, you can't do it. So you've got to rely on a guy that is so dicey as your first running bag off the board. It just feels fragile. There was a time.
That's because it is Jason. There was a time that Austin Echler felt that way. Okay. To give you the like, you know, should be obvious but wasn't obvious.
And it's players that the running bag position don't fill the prototypical mental image of what you have in a workhorse back. And A-chan is that guy. He's small, yes. But when you go and watch the film, I went back and watch the highlights from the Bont-H-chan.
He bounces off a guy's great balance. He doesn't. He goes between the tackles. It's not like he goes down on first contact.
There are attributes to the player regardless of the size that make you think. I mean, I could see your face. You're like, I'm back in. Yeah.
No, I don't know if I'm in or out. I am just scared. So you'll be looking for him to drop. You'll want to take advantage if other people are scared to.
Yeah, I need to scare people off so that I can have him. Oh, man. Because you love him. I do.
I do. But you love most of it too. I know you've talked about this. Obviously he's in at the value.
You love everything most of it. Yeah. I mean, the last year is running back to going in like what is it, the eighth round or something. Yeah.
Seems a little like the pendulum swung too far. I'm just an inverse of H&M. To me. H&I per efficient, Ben banged up, lower opportunities.
Hypo hyper hyper hyper. No, I'm saying what's the opposite though. Oh, I see what you're saying. Is it a thi?
Yeah. I think it's a hypo. Hypo efficient. It was just a passing comment should be analyzed.
Just a little prefix joke. Come on. It's the good stuff. That is the good stuff.
Why that listen? Thank you. At least get it right. Josh Jacobs.
Don't check. Okay. I will answer. Yes, you did.
I knew it. With Josh, is the word you're looking for. Please be quiet. We are trying to analyze these players.
A-efficient. Josh Jacobs. Should work. Can work.
Great team. Big money. Feels scary. Because what you saw over the year last year was inefficiency.
47% of the time over 10.5 points, which is our metric for consistency for a running back. That's 50% obviously not what you want if you're spending a high pick. Ended with an injury 3.5 a carry. Didn't look like the player that led to AFC in rushing the year before.
That's what defines a scary pick to me. As you go into the season, not in love with last year's film, but in love with all the externals. At least when he went down his back up, who had not really started in a game, came into the look terrible. Not true.
That is. Strong ending for zimier life. And there's some, you know, he was late to camp. Bat Thor.
Bat Thor. I don't know if that was everything. It was a tough season. For the quarterback position they rotated through.
The fact that like, fat Thor was just. So he was a high-po-efficient. Bat Thor was such a throw away joke. That just… Yeah, it shouldn't work, man.
I was so mad at it too. Because I had Josh Jacobs. And I was like, stop it. Like… Stop the bad boy.
He just negotiated a contract. He's not fat. And then I dressed up as Josh Jacobs from Halloween. Yeah, he kept on.
He kept on. So look, I know you agree that Josh Jacobs is kind of a terrifying pick. Oh, yes it is. You know, there's a world like he's already done it.
He could be a top three run. Yes. He could get the kind of work on it. And what do we want?
We want a team that's going to win ball games. And often said we like a quarterback that we like. He's got all those. He's got a deal in behind him.
We love that. Yeah. Well, no, he's got Marshall on the way behind him. Fair.
We'll see if Dylan makes a team. Oh, how's that feel? That's an intense feel. Hey, feels bad.
Well, could have been. Good prefix, Joe. That's what Mike is owning it on for 2024. That's what you got to look forward to.
I've got a lot more lined up. Good. Good. Let's get divisional.
All right, we are on our third divisional breakdown episode. We're in the AFC right now. We're looking at the AFC East. It's a fun division to talk about.
A lot of very relevant fantasy football players to discuss. And as I've said on previous episodes, we're looking at some of the offices and changes for each of these teams, players, rookies, coaches, schemes, how things went last year, how we see things transpiring this year. And ultimately, we'll try to nail this division prediction wise, but there are question marks. And we'll start with the team that has won four consecutive AFC East titles, the Buffalo Bills.
And they still got it done last year. Miami, same record. Buffalo ends up with the division title. They lost the Chiefs.
The struggle right now in Buffalo is like, is the clock, you know, is time running out for Buffalo on this championship window because the money that they're spending for Josh Allen is only going to continue to increase. His cap hit jumps from 30 to 60 next year. And his cap has already hurt the team. They've lost some pieces.
They are for fantasy purposes. It's really, really interesting what's going to be necessary from this Buffalo Bills offense. They're going to need to put up even more points than ever. And they've got Josh Allen to do it.
I didn't see anything that said he's going to slow down, but they lost so many weapons. They have the second most vacated targets in the league. I think there is a slight lack of confidence in the offense continuing to be the predictable provider of fantasy points that has been in the past. Now, last year, they're projected Vegas out of 10 and a half wins.
They go 11 and a six. This year, it's a 10 and a half again. You know, they had the opposite coordinator change. That was a really key moment for this team where we saw Sifondigs fade into irrelevance for an important part of your fantasy season.
And they stopped it on the football. I mean, with Kindorci for weeks, one through 10 yards a game, there were seven, but they threw the ball the 13th most, eighth and points per game. Those numbers stuck. They were sworn a ton of points after the transition to Joe Brady, but the passing percentage dropped down to 31st in the league.
It was the James Cook experience. A lot of plays per game. They went six in one. They finished on a roll.
And so is this a new identity? Like how predictive is a seven game sample when this team made investments in the draft, bringing in Keon Coleman, Carter Samuel, do you see a balance or do you see them trying to run back? We got them to six in one over the back. I think you're going to see them try to run it back, especially when you look at what they did personnel wise.
You know, letting Sifondigs go, they took Sifondigs from the focal point of this offense to a more ancillary, almost irrelevant piece of the offense during those last few games. They won those games and then they said, hey, let's get more of this short area where Dalton Kekade's going to step up. Carter Samuel has worked with Joe Brady before. I think Curtis Samuel is the number one target in the wide receiver room here in 2024.
And so I think they're going to try to do more of the same, which to me just means like the way that I started out the bills, when I took a look at the changes, the splits last year, the personnel, I think this is going to be a running back and tight end team. I think they are going to have a lot of short passes, a lot of, you know, get the ball out quick. And, you know, I'm in love with both James Cook and Dalton Kekade. And I'm not really into most of the other pieces.
So let me bring something up then because we've talked about the transition that Patrick Mahomes has made in Kansas City with the offense over the last few years. Is that was kept the target has changed tremendously? You just lost Sifandig's, who was a downfield threat, made big plays, 29% of targets and then gave Davis, you know, yes, he can goos from here and there, but 50% of targets caught a ton of touchdowns in big plays. Both those guys are out and it's hard to, like, if you tell me I'm subscribing to short area targets, like that hasn't translated to number one finishes from a home.
You know, the offense has changed a lot. You don't have the over the top type of kill stuff there. So you have more variation in outcome for the quarterback. Is that what you are?
Is that the extension or do you just throw it out because Josh Allen can run the football? No, Josh Allen running is going to keep him up near the top. He still finished as my, I guess in six point passing, he was my number two quarterback, but in four point leagues, he's still my number one. And losing games, I've got to give a shout out to this tweet.
It's just such a fun fact. Here's receiving touchdowns since 2020, including playoffs. The best of the best. Gabe Davis with 33 CD lamb with 33, Demar chase 32 and Justin Jefferson 30.
Say it again? Yeah. So Justin Jefferson, Demar chase and CD lamb with 32 and 33. They have fewer touchdowns than Gabe Davis.
And Gabe is with 33. That's including playoffs. But basically all came in the case. Of course, yeah.
But where he had, he had 15 touchdowns in the case. Yeah, it's a wild, wild step. So no, no, Davis. That is 284 of AKA targets by the bills.
That is the most associated with any quarterback draft in the top eyes of 2018. That is a ton of AKA targets, nearly 300. Are you afraid, Mike? Are you afraid of the unknown here with the offensive changes?
I, my, my projections came out very unafraid, but, but, but the more that the offseason season has been moving forward, like Josh Allen's mobile. It's not a fear of does he like full on Patrick Mahomes from last year where Mahomes ends up as the QB eight is incredibly disappointing for fantasy football. I don't see that happening. But yet the stories of last year's Kansas City Chiefs where they really didn't have like, it wasn't a wide receiver at least being drafted anywhere near the top of ADP.
That's where Buffalo is right now. Like Kion Coleman, what the data I'm seeing is going as the wide receiver 45. So that's the first, but on top of that, like it's, it's up to Dalton Kincaid now of Mahomes has Kelsey. And despite the disappointing feelings of Travis Kelsey from last year, because at the end of the season, he's number one, the season as a whole, Travis Kelsey was actually fantastic.
So does, is there a player on this team that can fill the void that, because you still need, while the rushing will carry you to at least have a really safe floor, you need some men, you still need passing to take yourself to being an elite, like a top two guy. We know this from Josh Allen, a rookie, right? Yeah. It was the, it was the, it was the Fondig's arrival that launched him into number one every year.
This is the first time ever that the QB1 and ADP has his wide receivers drafted outside the top 40. There you go. But I am curious. Now I like Kion Coleman.
I liked him in the draft process. The Bills liked him enough to make him a second round pick. I'm curious if your sentiment around Josh Allen would be different if he, if they had taken Xavier Worthy or they had taken Lein Mcconkey players that you liked more in the pre draft process. Yeah, if they had been able to get their hands on someone, you know, like Brian Thomas, uh, Yeah, Brian Thomas, uh, first rounder.
They traded back a couple of times. They could have taken Xavier Worthy. They, they said no. They traded back and got, you know, the consolation prize and they say the nice things and they're great.
I think that's what they called it, but all right. They've got, you know, good press conferences. Uh, Kion Coleman, delightful guy. You are our number three choice.
How's that feel? I mean, if he's right back, that's what you wanted, but go on. Um, you know, the, the, the words out of camp are not that great. They're saying he's coming along a little bit slower or not in those words.
They say he's still got a lot to learn. He's, you know, he, we don't know how many positions he's going to be able to pick up. Yada, yada, yada. You're going to have a slow start, I think, to the rookie year for Kion Coleman.
And my concern for Kion Coleman is like he projects to play like to X and we, I had a different opinion of just Kion Coleman, the prospects coming in the day that he wasn't really my favorite player. He was too hot, too cold for me. And does he come in and is he now for this offense? Is he a rookie version of Gabe Davis?
He's still the better bet to me than the Curtis Samuel bet. Okay. That, that would, and I know we'll disagree on that. That's fine.
I think the better bet, if you have all your wide receivers going outside the top 40 and you want to, you want to bet on upside at that point in your draft, Curtis Samuel is going to be a pedestrian option for your, for your fantasy roster. He just is. He's not going to, you're going to like Dalton Kincade more than Curtis Samuel every week. They're in the same area of the field.
You're going to have to rely on, on gadgetry and things for Curtis Samuel. I mean, look, we've been here with Curtis Samuel before. Yeah. I mean, Curtis Samuel will, I agree with what you're saying, but Curtis Samuel will dominate his average draft position.
He'll beat it, but he'll beat it to a point that's irrelevant. He doesn't have the ceiling. So if you want to take a shot, I have no problem betting on, you know, the bigger body, more athletic young guy with a bigger body bet. You know, that's, that's what I would do personally.
Like I said earlier, my bet is on Dalton Kincade and on James Cook. I believe those two guys are going to have phenomenal season. I like the James Cook bet. We, we know that RB14 right now that a lot of picks behind the body chain that you mentioned earlier last year finished as the running back 11.
And he was a huge part of the offensive philosophy shift when they made the offensive coordinator change. That's when things really kicked into gear for James Cook. He went from about 10 points a game to about 15, and his opportunities went up nearly five a game, and especially in the, in the receiving game. And we know we've, we've had an article that came out a few years ago of the, the Borgogan, look at the Borgogogan Oregon.
We, you know, vacated targets. We want so badly to just take, receiver, plug them into the vacated targets and say, look how many they're going to get. Doesn't work that way. We found that, well, actually, you know, yes, they, they fill a void for targets, but the running backs often see an uptick in targets.
So I, I have come around. I like the, I like the bet on James Cook and, but Dalton Kincade is, it's, it's tough because, yes, the, the natural progression of the player first round pick. He's a tight end. It takes some time.
His season for a rookie tight end was actually fantastic. It was fantastic. It's just being overshadowed by Sam LaPorta. But it's still hard to shake what happened as soon as his production really came when Dawson, Dawson, Ox was off the field.
You were like, yeah, here we go, baby. Dalton Kincade. We knew it all along. We've waited for it.
Eight targets a game from week seven to 10. And then, you know, a couple of weeks later, you know, offensive shift and Dawson, Ox comes back. And then the numbers go back down. Well, it shows you that, because players tight ends, it's a pro, it's a process to get to the 80, 90% of snaps.
It's a natural process. But then when Knox going out, it just forced it for a while, you saw how the production would be with that kind of a workload. And then it went back. So I, I would imagine we'd all have come into this year saying the snaps are going up.
I think he has just as much potential to be in the training, bright conversation as McBride does. I mean, it's a huge opportunity. Josh Allen's a better quarterback than Kyler Murray. And, you know, training, bright can't be the number one target for Kyler.
You're just, Marvin Harrison's going to be the number one target. Right now you're saying Kincade's the guy. I'm saying don't, don't, don't, he can't, he should or could be the number one target for Josh Allen and the bills. So I'm completely in on him and he doesn't cost as much as trying to chase LaPorta's double digit rookie touchdowns.
And then going back to James Cook, this is the running back 11 last season, who's being drafted as the running back 14 has way more opportunity. They relied on him more when this coordinator shift happened. And you only had two touchdowns. You're a competition that he had two touchdowns.
So like, you know, that's a problem with him. That's the problem with him. Absolutely. But he's, there's no way he plays 17 and doesn't get at least two, right?
He had the, yeah, you're saying that's the floor of the touchdown world and he's still finished where he finished. Yeah. So he was only behind McCaffrey and Breeze Hall and yards from scrimmage. He's a good back.
Yep. He's a little back. He is, but he's great. And I think we want to see every role.
Arizona Miami Jackson, Del Baltimore to start the year. Oh, by the way, can't call him in one pick ahead of Lad McConquien, Mr. Constellation. How do you feel about that?
Teams make bad picks all the time. Hold on. Hold on. Arizona Miami Jacksonville.
That's the first three weeks. Not too shabby. That's in Miami. Yeah.
Miami defense should be okay. It should be, but you're, I feel like you're forced. I'll be taking Miami in that game. I'm not talking about that.
I'm talking about in offense. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Point against the Bills and make.
Oh, you're liking. You're liking the beginning for this. Yes. I'm liking for, for fantasy.
That's, I'll take that. Miami was 11 and six as well. We'll move on and talk about them. They had a projected win total of nine and a half last year there, nine and a half this year.
So far, we're rerolling. Vegas is rerolling this division. They played just six games last year against teams with the winning record. How they do?
They were one in five. And that became a storyline that we were watching for fantasy. Their only one was that win in week 16 against Dallas. It's not great, Bob.
I feel like we are doing the same routine with Miami of a year right now because we've had two exceptionally prolific starts of the year, especially for two where you look like a great fantasy pick and then things slow down at times for Miami. But, you know, where are you with them? Number one in points per game. You know, the office is going to work with McDaniel's.
They added Odell Beckham. They didn't lose anybody of significance over the offices and you're rerolling it. You get waddle back healthier than he was last year. I will be honest, I'm a driver's in football and I frequently forget that Odell Beckham signed to the Miami Dolphins.
I knew he signed and I still dropped him in dynasty. I think this time next year, we will say, do you guys remember Odell? It's on the Dolphins last year? That's how it feels.
But the big pieces, like some offenses with predictability, you love it when it's like Miami. Yeah, you know, where you have, you know, Ty, you can waddle. You're done. You're done talking about receiving options, right?
Yes, you are. I will. I think Malik Washington's name just needs to be thrown out there. He's a lower draft than wide receiver rookie coming in, but they got two of those guys this year in the draft.
They draft a Jalen right, the speedster that fits this system running back running back a little bit later in the draft. He was a day three pick and Malik Washington. Those are two sometimes pieces fit a team very well, like a champ last year. And I think those two guys do fit the mold.
So it's just worth noting, keeping your eye on maybe not a deeper legal or something like that. I am in agreement. Like Malik Washington had one of my prospect scores that I look at. That was like elite, like top of the charts.
I mean, he fell in draft. So it's like, okay, we got paid attention to that. But Puka had a very similar score in this metric and then fell in draft and not saying he's puking to Kua, but I'm saying he is he's not a player that he's going to do anything if both of these guys are healthy, but should Tyreek or Jalen waddle miss time, that's going to be a fascinating one. And not every draft pick is the same.
Like you watch the draft reactions. This one was Mike McDaniel on the phone. The GM talking about how Mike McDaniel has been trying to get him to draft him for a couple rounds now. And McDaniel was pumped for this pick.
All the O'Dell fans upset about what you're saying right here. No dales opportunity to be the next chase Claypool at the Miami Dolphins. I think all the O'Dell fans are in New York, though, and they're fine with him not being good for the Dolphins. Where are you with two?
I went and comes to making decisions for late round draft picks at the quarterback position. I mean, Jason, you're making a face that says I don't want him. You don't want a piece of the two experience. I mean, in best ball, I think he's a much better option simply because the variance he was not very consistent.
This running game is out of control sometimes. And so you can have a funny way to play, but it's true. Yeah, you can put it this way. Who led the, am I correct that he led the NFL in passing yards last year, I believe, do it did.
4624 yards, 550. See if that was one. I believe he led the NFL in passing. You can't do better than that.
His consistency score. He led the, yes, you know, who's number two. I do. Cheering golf.
Yeah, baby. Those lines were awesome. But my point is you can't ask much more from him and he had a consistency score of an F having 23% of his games last year. He exceeded 20 points.
That's just this is a second straight year where if you drafted to and you played him for the first half of the year and then you traded him into Mike, it would have been a good decision. Yeah. Yeah. Which is exactly what I mean, Mike, you traded for two from me because he was an MVP candidate and he was dominating for the first six weeks of the season.
Really needed a quarterback and then it takes my season. So you were not happy. You acted like I did it on purpose. Like I told you to stop.
You were straight. You were mad at Andy. You were telling me you and a man. Of course I would have been.
I was doing fall. I called him up and I said, yo, slow it down. Andy got back off of the way. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right.
I would have been mad. So, but so to for to he's going right now as the QB 13 on sleeper. Actually one pick ahead of Jared Goff. So it's funny, but like Brock Purdy is ahead of to a so for a guy that can lead the league and passing yardage to only have the 29 touchdowns on the 46 hundred yards.
I think that's low. I think that there's a little bit margin for that to go up by a couple. And I think that Jalen Waddle is a huge part of this. Like Jalen Waddles struggles.
It's hard to really encapsulate them on a box score where the guy was just he was hurt all the time. You know, on and off the field. So playing and struggling through it wasn't that wasn't anywhere close to the same player that we had seen before that. So I'm betting on Jalen Waddle to look assuming health, of course, return to form and then it being not.
We have ish. You have the elite Tyree kill on one side and then you have a really good Jalen Waddles. No, you have an elite Tyree kill and then you have an up and coming elite wide receiver in Jalen Waddle who was just paid to be that as well. So I think that there is there's a world where two hits the 46 hundred yards and keys at the 33 passing touchdowns, which is I don't want to keep dumping on the CJ Stroud draft pick, but it's like to a if you're telling me at the end of your two has more yards and touchdowns and CJ Stroud to go.
That's not elite. You're like, yeah, that's fine. That's that's not weird. And yet to has been drafted as the quarterback 13 and and and sprout is being drafted as like the quarterback five.
And last year they had the fourth most games lost on the offensive line, which had a higher rated unit. They lost a starting guard this off season. Keeping to upright has been a huge priority, but he has the weapons like waddle even in the games he played played a smaller snap count than the year before. So he missed games was injured and then played a lower snap count because he's probably still injured in those games.
Exactly. So I know you love waddle from a value perspective this year. Are you on board with the bounce back Jay for a while? Yeah, I do think waddle has a bounce back and to you know you joked around earlier about how two years in a row if you drafted to and traded him.
I mean it was awesome because he did start the season. They have like new plays at the beginning of the year that nobody knows and then they get figured out. I guess but Miami's opening schedule is even better than buffaloes. You got home against Jacksonville, home against Buffalo, who's lost so many defensive pieces Seattle and then home against Tennessee, Tennessee, Tennessee.
Yeah. How many fathers to that? Give you that team name. So, you know, maybe you draft him and trade him a month in because it's not going to be consistent because of the running game.
That's the one that's the one that's the one speaking of which we already talked about the bonnage. Yeah. He's good. Drop him late.
He's going. He's going as the RB a remoster the RB 25. So the world is saying we expect the baton to be passed. This isn't back to back.
This isn't, you know, a committee situation where their expectation is most or can repeat a this outlandish season touchdown wise, which really you needed that right. That's how he was vaulted to that level was 20 plus touchdown. Yeah. I mean it was just, you know, there were games where he didn't have as many attempts 11 attempts, nine attempts, 10 attempts, but getting into the end zone having all those opportunities inside the five yard line.
It was kind of unbelievable. And yet they brought all the same people back in you. Imagine that, you know, when you listen to Mike McDaniel's talk, it's well, this is the leader of our running back. Yes.
And you should listen to those things. Like that's why that's what makes the bet on H and so scary is like it will be a time share. Most of it is going to play even. It always has been for him.
Like, yeah, the baton, it can be passed. That's fine. And it's Devan H and is the leader, but he will be the leader of a time share with most of it. And then are you that confident that when they get when it's they're inside the two or inside the five, are you that confident it will be H and getting the majority of those?
No, that's where it becomes a scary proposition. I very in most of your like, well, this is the time back and forth when they run off the field. That's kind of how this office works. Yeah.
It's weird. And this is pretty much the only offense. I think in the NFL where I'm fine with both running backs. I think both are going to have great seasons.
You saw that I think the best comp for this is back in the day with Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones, where Thomas Jones was getting a ton of touchdowns. Jamal Charles had a ton of touchdowns. He wasn't used inside the five. It was like, he just ripped off long ones.
He had seven receiving touchdowns. And you know, that's what happened. That was the year with Jamal Charles was the number one. That's the type of ceiling for Devont H.
Is 12 long rushing touchdowns, seven receiving touchdowns. And all of a sudden, he's the number one running guy. All right, we will take another quick break and talk about a team that was well, they were, they didn't even get to start doing what they wanted to do last year. All right, as we continue through the AFC East, we reach the New York Jets.
Oh boy. With the grittiest seven and ten season you've ever had. We all sat, we all sat down Monday night football. Monday night football.
Yes. I guess. And we said, it begins. Aaron Rodgers era in New York.
Here we go. He runs out with the American flag. I mean, the fans are excited and this is the future. Maybe that flag was too heavy.
You know, it's our pregame tweet. Right. And then it just wasn't prepped because he's not usually doing that. That's a good point.
They get strained one little bit too much. That's just Aaron jog out. Can we look just a casual jog out? Kyle, find out what hand he had the flag in.
Was that the Achilles tour? Yeah, it's important. Go on. Hey, they were projected for nine and a half wins.
If he runs, if we want him to be able to get a little bit more. If he runs, if we want, he comes out running again with the flag. Just get just unload. This was hard breaking.
It's not a real dynamic. If you're an agent quarterback, let someone else hold the flag. They also have the same protective wind totals they did last year, which is nine and a half. They have an easy strength of schedule.
This is supposed to be the redemption year for Aaron Rodgers. We know what the defense is like. We know what Reese Hall is like. I mean, doesn't it all come down to whether Aaron Rodgers is healthy and capable as the quarterback of this football team for how this season goes?
Because if he's, if he's an above-end, he's not going to be able to get a little bit more. Let me just put him out like the Kirk Cousins level quarterback. Oh, brother, then this team is going to win a ton of football games, right? Yes.
They have an incredible wide receiver, who we haven't seen the full potential of in Garrett Wilson because he hasn't had somebody in the football. But this is so make or break and it feels like you are every bet you make on an offensive player when you drop them in fantasy for the Jets, is it better on Aaron Rodgers? It doesn't feel like you can escape that reality. Yeah.
There's there's at least a break glass in case of emergency with Tyler Taylor, which is a significant backup upgrade this year. But you're still always hurt to every time he takes over as a backup, get certain you get the third string. Yeah, who is this? Who's third string?
I believe that if I'm lucky, I believe. Yeah, I mean, you know, Garrett Wilson would be worse with Tyrone Taylor. But honestly, this is what is scary to me about drafting Garrett Wilson, who's almost my, you know, who scares me to draft pick. Okay.
Just because I'm not as confident that Aaron Rogers at age 40 off in a kiddies tear will be great. Now, can he manage the game and get wins? Absolutely. I think he's gonna be very good for the Jets if he's, you know, healthy.
How many passing touchdowns did they have last year? I deleted it out of our show. So you can't see. But do you know the answer to this?
Man, I'm gonna guess 13. Mike, you want to take a shot? Yes. Oh, I'm, and I'm high.
I'm sure. I think I'm gonna go. Let's go 11. It's 11.
Oh, it's 11 passing touchdowns. That's how is that possible? It feels, it feels almost impossible. And seven of the 11 were inside the 10, which means there were four passing touchdowns that were outside the 10 year for a football that plays 17 week, 29th and points per game.
But it sets up pretty nicely this year, schedule wise. Breeze Hall, another year removed from the injury. Yeah, we're all in love with the Breeze Hall potential for the season. I've got him ranked extremely high.
Yeah, you got to love that coming into the season, at least entering the season, the Jets have their offensive line is currently ranked fifth by PFF. We love that they've made some big time additions. The sign to tackles, right? I think they like my question for Breeze Hall is how like, what will the amount of the receiving game truly be?
Because 95 targets is, that's not happening. If it did, then Breeze Hall is, is far and away the number one fantasy football running back at the end of the year. But it was like, the numbers got so juiced up by the end of the year where the Jets could do nothing offensively, except just be just be terrified to throw it to Breeze and beg him to do something for the team. So where do you guys think the receiving work?
What's that line going to be at? Yeah, that's a big deal. That's why I have him behind Beazhan in my order, because it's usually, okay, Chris from Caffries one, then you got Beazhan and Breeze. Who do you want?
And you can make a strong argument for either of them. He didn't play 50% of the snaps for the first month. After that point forward, he's actually on pace for 111 targets in the games that he was actually fully active of. But you're right, what was happening was that offensive line was so bad and the quarterback was so bad, they would literally just snap the ball, let him throw and dump it over the line.
It was their only thing they could do on offense and sometimes it worked. This is a bet on better efficiency by the offense to get all together. More fashion opportunities. Yeah, it's a bet on Breeze Hall.