AI Skepticism, Stale Data and a Coin Toss (E241)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the week ended Nov. 21, with stocks lower on AI speculation skepticism (0:48), positive high-grade bond returns (2:17) and easing commodities (4:36). Their macro review (9:08) includes the resumption of the government statistical mills, idled by the 43-day shutdown, which churned out a mixed bag of overdue labor market data. While fed funds futures are pricing in likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut Dec. 10, Eric Dhall warns weeks of macro prints lie ahead and regards the odds at this point in time as a coin flip. Among the prints due during the Thanksgiving week ahead (19:45), Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for stale-but-we’ll-have-to-take-it September reports of the PPI, retail sales and durable goods; and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November.