DoubleLine Minutes

For the week ended July 24, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough see a lot of red on the ticker tape (00:20), with the S&P 500 down on the week amid the AI skepticism that the market is kind of dishing out right now. It was also a red week for fixed income (3:20) as the U.S. interest rate curve sold off, but commodities (4:48) benefited from a potential second energy shock. While it was a light week in Macro Land, Eric and Mark discuss the 186,000 jobless claims (8:17), the lowest print since 1969, and positive-territory manufacturing and service PMI numbers (10:29), which could have gotten a boost from the World Cup and celebration of the U.S. semiquincentennial. Next week (12:35) will bring lots of macro news, including home prices, a PCE print and a Q2 GDP estimate, but the big event will be the FOMC meeting, the second under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

For the week ended July 17, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel delve into rotating stock leadership amid a route in chipmakers (0:45), a clip-the-coupon bond world (4:47) and stronger commodities (5:55) as war drums spiked energy prices. Notwithstanding losses in erstwhile tech leadership, Ryan Kimmel sees positive signals for the U.S. economy in the form of broadening gains in equities, stellar bank earnings and robust corporate lending. Copper, an economic bellwether, while weak on the week, still is holding up for the month. Topping the week’s macro news (10:23) was outright month-over-month deflation in the June headline CPI and even 2 basis points of deflation in Core CPI. “Generally speaking, it was a positive for the Fed and abated inflation fears from the prior months,” Ryan notes. “Heading into this print, the market was expecting almost a 50% probability of a July 29 rate hike. Following the report, we saw that number drop to 10%.” Fed funds futures are still pricing in a single 25-basis point rate hike by year end. “In my opinion, that’s hedging,” Eric Dhall opines. “It’s tough to see the Fed hiking based on the last CPI, but you just don’t know. If WTI prices were driven again to the $100 level, hawks could be emboldened, but Chairman Warsh might throw cold water on that. I don’t think he thinks raising rates in an energy-shock inflation cycle makes sense.”

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the second quarter with stocks (1:44) led by a 43%+ gain in tech, high-grade bonds (6:07) grinding out the carry despite selling in the belly of the yield curve and commodities (9:53) giving back part of their still-healthy YTD gains. The U.S. dollar (12:28), Eric notes, was very resilient on the Federal Reserve’s commitment to defeat inflation. In a tour of the last two weeks’ macro news (13:25), Mark finds a mostly stable labor market based on his readings of the June U-3 unemployment report, the latest JOLTS report and the update to weekly jobless claims data. Looking to the week ahead, the star prints of course will be the June CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) reports. Mark also will be eyeballing the first corporate earnings results for the quarter.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the market week ended June 26. Trading was marked by new leadership from neglected stock sectors (00:22), significant Treasury curve flattening (5:02) on a more hawkish than expected Kevin Warsh and weak commodities (6:41) as the dollar joined the long bond in cheering the new presumed hawk at the Fed.   Appraising the previous week’s FOMC meeting (9:21) and Warsh’s first news conference as Fed chair, Jeff observes the futures market upped its fed funds expectations to 1½ rate hikes in the remainder of 2026. “With less emphasis on forward guidance,” Ryan notes, “I think that will put a little more volatility into the front end. Markets will be a lot more dependent on incoming economic data. But ultimately, that will reduce the jump risk.” In the past, he explains, Fed officials could “get cornered into one position and then eventually have to change course,” producing “gappy markets.” In the absence of past guidance, he says, FOMC members won’t be tied to past public positions.

DoubleLine’s Eric Dhall and Ryan Kimmel run down the June 8-12 market week, which marked the arrival of the historic SpaceX IPO – an impressive debut for a company with no profits, as Mr. Dhall notes. Aside from the SpaceX splash, the broader equities market was up a little with quite a bit of dispersion in performance. Fixed income (3:37) was positive across the board, with a rally in rates catalyzed by talk of a potential ceasefire. Commodities (5:22) were down for the week, led by energy, but the spike for Dr. Copper could be a positive sign. On the macro front (9:45), the big story was some hot CPI and PPI inflation prints. While the headline numbers were pretty stark, Mr. Kimmel takes a look underneath the hood to provide a more detailed prognosis. He notes that the CPI and PPI numbers are pointing to a hot PCE print later in the month. Next week (18:57) will be all about the inaugural FOMC meeting for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Messrs. Dhall and Kimmel look forward to his debut, cautioning that the arrival of a new chair often leads to some market volatility. Be sure to check out DoubleLine’s Fed Day coverage, including CEO Jeffrey Gundlach joining CNBC’s “Closing Bell” to share his thoughts on the new chair and his first post-FOMC meeting press conference. Minutes will be off next Friday for the Juneteenth holiday but will return June 26. Happy holiday!

DoubleLine’s Jeff Mayberry and Mark Kimbrough survey a June 1-5 market week ending with a selloff in stocks (1:28) led lower by the high-flying tech, consumer discretionary and communications services sectors; higher, flattening bond yields (4:14); and weaker commodities (6:18) with the exception of energy. The risk retreat came on Friday’s strong payrolls report for May, which topped the week’s macro news (7:52) that also included a resilient ISM manufacturing report and an April JOLTS report showing a persistently low-hire, low-fire labor market. Payrolls strength disappointed the doves. Fed funds futures (15:30) now price a hike in the rate by the end of the year. Jeff Mayberry, however, opines that the overall macro picture so far is unlikely to show to new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh a case for tighter official short-term interest rates. The most-anticipated macro prints (18:40) for the week of June 8-12 will be the May CPI and PPI reports on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

On the last trading day of May, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a month that saw a few tech giants (0:41) drive the S&P 500 to new highs while bond yields eased (5:56) albeit to still elevated levels versus the start of the month. Commodities (10:53) declined, led by energy. These moves came amid a ping pong of headlines fueling both hopes for a détente in the Persian Gulf and fears over the precarity of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. “The U.S. is negotiating with some more moderate people in Iran, but the guys with the guns don’t necessarily agree with those moderates,” Eric Dhall notes. “It’s tough to believe that this situation is going to blow over until we start seeing ships transiting through Strait of Hormuz.” On the macro front for the week (13:27), Ryan Kimmel notes that despite softer-than-expected readings on the PCE Deflator for April, inflation still “is not moving in the right direction and remains well above the Fed’s targets.” Looking inside the personal income report for April, he notes real wages and salary growth turned negative. For the week ahead, the biggest item will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payroll and unemployment reports for May.

“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” – Democratic Election Strategist James Carville, 1993   DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey a “neck-snapping” week ended May 15 that saw stocks (0:32) sell off Friday after the S&P 500 marked an all-time high on Thursday. The party crasher came from the fixed income market (3:27). Inflation-focused bond vigilantes sent Treasury yields higher by 20 basis points or more from two-year to 30-year tenors across the curve. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (9:21) edged higher, amid wide dispersion, as energy rallied, copper was flat and precious metals were sold. Macro news (11:21) began with a consensus-matching April CPI on Tuesday but was dominated by an April PPI on Wednesday showing broad signs of inflation. Eric Dhall suggests Friday’s fixed income vigilantism amounted to a “delayed reaction” to the week’s earlier inflation news. Eric and Mark note fed funds futures are pricing in a Fed standing pat until July 2027. The May 18-22 week will be a light one for the statistical mills, with the most notable items being an FOMC minutes release, jobs claims and S&P Global manufacturing and services reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel on May 8 review a stock market (0:39) dominated over the month by a handful of tech giants, a fixed income market (3:32) earning its carry while Treasuries danced to oil’s war tune. Commodities ended the month mixed with energy lower amid gains for industrial and precious metals. The week’s macro news (7:41) was led by stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in April, with Ryan noting improving breadth in terms of sectors adding vs. detracting jobs as well as more jobs in the cyclically sensitive sectors. On the inflation front, he points out a trend of higher prices paid within the ISM services report for April. Consumer prices, Ryan adds, appear to be outpacing income, as registered in May by the lowest reading on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index since its inception in January 1978. For the May 11-15 week, the April CPI report (due Tuesday) and PPI report (due Wednesday) will land on the top of Jeff and Ryan’s desks. They also will be on the lookout for Thursday’s jobless claims report and for retail sales, in particular, the inputs into the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey April market returns, with stocks (0:32) rebounding strongly from wartime losses in the prior month, and IG fixed income (2:55) managing a positive carry in the face of rising yields. Emerging markets debt led risky credit with a 2.7% return. Commodities (3:58) moved higher, led by energy. The week ended May 1 was packed with macro news (6:35), with strong readings in capital goods spending driven by tax-code changes incentivizing business investment and AI investment, and strong but decelerating personal incomes. The April 29 FOMC meeting (8:05), Jerome Powell’s last as Fed chair while he stays put atop his Fed governor’s perch, was characterized by a single dovish dissent from the committee’s decision to leave rates unchanged and three hawkish dissents over the faint signal of easing bias left in its policy guidance. That behavior was enough, Mark notes, for fed funds futures to reprice from a 25% probability of a single rate cut in 2026 to just about nil “as far as the eye can see.” Looking ahead (18:39) to May 4-8, Jeff and Mark will have their eyes on unemployment and payrolls prints for April as well as JOLTS, ISM services and import-export reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel on April 24 review a market week with U.S. stocks nearing all-time highs (0:56), led by rampaging tech, in the teeth of Washington and Tehran’s “double embargo” of the Persian Gulf. Semiconductor hunger (2:58) fed historic rallies in chipmakers and in the South Korean and Japanese stock markets. Fixed income (4:18) staged no big moves, with investment grade sectors slightly lower amid steepening in the belly of the yield curve. Commodities (6:18) moved higher, led by energy, alongside a stronger dollar and weaker gold. Ryan explains the interesting month-long correlation between two-year Treasury yields and WTI prices. Macro news (8:16) was light for the week. Eric points out that retail sales and S&P Global manufacturing signal a U.S. economy “humming along” notwithstanding the wartime shock to energy prices. With Kevin Warsh having “dodged any flak” during his Tuesday congressional testimony and the Justice Department Friday dropping its investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, “the path is pretty much clear” for Warsh’s succession to the chairmanship, Eric says. For the week ahead (15:05), with Wednesday’s FOMC likely promising a nothing burger for Powell’s last session presiding over the rate-setting body, Eric and Ryan will be on the watch for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller house price indices, durable goods order, personal income & spending, the PCE Price Index.

Risk assets rallied the week ended April 17, sending stocks (0:43) to all-time highs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, while fixed income (4:49) rallied across sectors, led by emerging markets, and across the yield curve. DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel welcome the market driver: signs belligerents in the U.S.-Iran war might de-escalate and re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Eric and Ryan, however, take a wait-and-see stance amid uncertainties on a hope-for road from ceasefire to lasting peace. Within the rally in rates, Eric notes most of the gains occurred within the belly of the yield curve, with minimal easing in the long bond reflecting growing apprehension over America’s deficit and debt benders. Commodities (6:08) were lower on the week, led by energy, but beneath the broad indexes Eric points out areas of appreciation, including in precious and industrial metals as well as agricultural products. Surveying market moves over the breadth of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Ryan highlights that U.S. rates “are still quite a bit away” from their levels “at the start of conflict.” Inflation is still running higher than Federal Reserve targets, crude oil and distillate prices remain higher than before the conflict, and “one-year inflation swaps are 50 basis point higher. I think the market is pricing in a Fed on hold.”

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough analyze two weeks ended April 10 of markets convulsed by the fog of war, then unleashed by a no-less nebulous ceasefire. Macro news similarly was dwarfed by events in and around the Persian Gulf. “This is not an easy market to see through,” Eric comments. “There’s a lot of fog of war, impeding investors’ ability to discern the fair price of securities right now.” As Exhibit #1, Eric cites the dramatic dispersions in stocks (2:18). For example, he points out the selloff in the SP 500 in the wake of the outbreak of war on Feb. 28 and the ferocious rally after the ceasefire announcement. Fixed income (6:56) likewise witnessed a selloff in rates, sending the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate down about 1 1/2% after the bombs started dropping, but “April to date it’s up 29 basis points,” Eric says. “These competing forces on interest rates are duking it out: the short-term inflationary impulse and the longer-term inflationary impulse from the fiscal overhang because the war costs money and potentially increases deficits.” Commodities (11:24) were no exception to the split-personality markets, surging 34% from Feb. 27 but giving up about 5% in April month-to-date. Mark Kimbrough, while warning “economic data are being dwarfed by the impact of the headlines,” covers the macro reports (15:58) for the past two weeks. These include expected war-related spikes in energy prices and a drop in the U-3 unemployment rate to 4.3%. Mark cautions that the drop in joblessness was largely due to jobseekers dropping out the labor pool. Surveying the release of the March 18 FOMC meeting minutes, Mark sees “more support for the Fed to sit on their hands,” notwithstanding rising hopes among traders for fed funds cuts this year. “The fog of war is the state of ignorance in which commanders find themselves … not only of their enemies, but also of their friends.” Sir Lonsdale Augustus Hale, The Fog of War (1896) “we now see through a glass darkly” Paul of Tarsus, I Corinthians 13:12 (circa 53-55 C.E.)

With the S&P 500 nearing a 10% drawdown from its Jan. 27 closing high, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey the week ended March 27. They start with a stock market with multiple stock sectors (0:30) in the red, energy the only positive sector for the week and month-to-date. Fixed income (3:43) was flat on the Bloomberg Aggregate investment-grade benchmark, albeit with rates higher in the belly of the Treasury curve. Commodities (6:14) as tracked by the BCOM were flat, with the energy sector actually down while agricultural products and industrial metals ended the week in the green. With the caveat that most macro reports (12:42) still have yet to catch up with reality post Iran war, Ryan looks beneath the relatively benign aggregate readings of S&P Global PMI goods and services reports for March and sees higher costs being passed along to consumers. Looking ahead to the Good Friday-abbreviated week of March 30-April 3, Eric is keen to see the March BLS payroll and unemployment reports (due Friday), “the first report that will take into account all the disruption we’ve seen” since the outbreak of Iran conflict.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey weakness across equity, fixed income and commodities for the week ended March 20 amid light macro reports, an uncertain Fed and war in the Middle East. For the week’s macro news, Jeff says surging energy costs and concerns over the Persian Gulf wiped out earlier expectations for federal funds rate cuts this year. Mark notes “everything across the board” in the February PPI report “exceeded expectations.” With a light economic calendar for March 23-27, Mark is more interested in the March data coming through in two weeks, showing “the effects of all the volatility we’ve been experiencing the last couple of weeks,”

At the end of a March 9-13 week whipsawed by the fog of war, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel survey down but not (yet) correcting stocks, higher yields across the curve led by the front end on inflation jitters and energy surging amid rumor-fed price swings. In forex markets, they survey the dollar’s wartime dominance and the yen crushed on Japan and its neighbors’ vulnerability to the interruption liquified natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Eric and Ryan cover the week’s macro prints, including the February CPI and January PCE Price Deflator, while cautioning against taking too much stock such rearview readings while the transience or permanence of the present energy shock remains a big unknown. Fed funds futures earlier in the week had priced in zero rate cuts for the remainder of 2026 before ending the week forecasting a single cut. Ryan fields a listener’s question on the revision-plagued nonfarm payrolls series. Looking to the week ahead, macro prints such as the February PPI remain subject to the same potential obsolescence affecting previous releases. Topping Eric and Ryan’s radar screen will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Jerome Powell news conference on Wednesday. “There’s naturally not going to be a cut,” Eric notes. “But there’s going to be a lot of parsing of the language to see the setup for the new Fed chair” after Powell’s term in that seat ends in May and Kevin Warsh presumably takes over as his Senate-confirmed successor.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough cover a March 2-6 market week rocked by the Feb. 28 outbreak of war in the Middle East, related energy-supply shocks, private credit losses and labor weakness in February. Equities (0:31) sold off across the board with energy the only positive sector for the week with a mere 1% gain. Fixed income (2:52) saw Treasury yields rise across the curve with the exception of a rally in the 3-month T-bill. Bank loans (4:32) were a lone positive note in the spread sectors. Commodity indexes (6:04) surged higher, led by a 25% gain in the energy complex with spikes in oil distillates, notably a 50% surge in diesel for delivery to Europe.   On the macro front (11:16), albeit reflecting activity prior to global economy-roiling events in Iran and the Persian Gulf, ISM goods and services reports were solidly expansionary for February. Import prices ex-petroleum accelerated higher in January. Nonfarm payrolls suffered significant losses in February, even after adjusting for a strike affecting healthcare workers that has since been resolved. The week ahead will include the February CPI (Wednesday) and personal income & spending and PCE for January (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review February performance during the final market week of the month ended Feb. 27. The S&P 500 finished the month down only 1% despite all the negative headlines and volatility. While tech and financials struggled, equities experienced wide dispersion, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index marking its biggest outperformance versus its market-weighted sibling since the GFC era. Also of note, a Cetrini paper on a dark AI future for the economy stoked tech sector concerns. Over in fixed income (6:21), the Agg turned in a nice month while a new bankruptcy continued to mount about private credit. Commodities were up on the week and month (10:55), with oil prices impacted by the Iran situation, and Bitcoin (12:31) may have found a floor. It was a light week in Macro Land (13:19), with updates on consumer sentiment; employment; and inflation, with these numbers not going the Fed’s way. Next week’s releases (18:05) will include ISM PMI prints as well as January retail numbers.

DoubleLine Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel and Analyst Mark Kimbrough note a rotation (0:05) in favor of communications services and financials as well as industrials in the stock market for the week ended Feb. 20. The previous week’s winners – Old Economy sectors: utilities, materials, consumer staples and real estate – were down this week. In fixed income (4:09), investment grade sectors faced the headwind of a slight rise in yields across the Treasury curve while high yield and bank loans had positive returns. The long bond led yield-curve steepening Friday on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s tariffs. Commodities (6:41) moved higher with crude oil up 6%. Among the week’s macro news (8:32), Ryan Kimmel sees positive signs for U.S. manufacturing; but headline and core PCE moving higher in December, decelerating wage and salary growth; and more signs of a K-shaped economy in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February. Mark Kimbrough spies a “hawkish tilt” in the minutes of the Jan. 28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Looking ahead (20:41) to the week of Feb. 23-27, Ryan and Mark will be on the lookout for home price appreciation indexes, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report, jobless claims and the producer price index for January.

Under the hood of broad stock indexes (00:19) for the week ended Feb. 13, Macro Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel and Analyst Mark Kimbrough see ongoing rotation from knowledge-economy sectors such as financials, communication services and tech as well as consumer discretionary into old-economy sectors such as utilities, materials, real estate, consumer staples and energy. These money flows largely continued the stock-market leadership of the prior week. Ryan and Mark also note a change of the guard, year-to-date, in investment styles with equal-weighted large caps outperforming market-weighted large caps and value outperforming growth. In fixed income (4:06), bull curve-flattening lifted the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, with Agency mortgage-backed securities outperforming investment grade corporates and Treasuries. In risky credits, emerging markets debt kept up with Agency MBS. Commodities (6:54) weakened, while in precious metals, silver stabilized and gold recovered above $5,000 per troy ounce. A heavy week for macro news (8:22), retail goods sales came in somewhat weak. Encouraging news on inflation arrived with the Employment Cost Index for 4Q2025 and the Consumer Price Index for January. Nonfarm payrolls for the month came in unusually strong versus expectations. Mark cautions that the bulk of the new hires were concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, and Ryan is taking a wait-and-see attitude given this data series’ history of downward revisions. Looking ahead to the abbreviated holiday week (22:09) of Feb. 17-20, Ryan and Mark will be on the lookout for the Wednesday release of minutes of the Jan. 28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (to see whether there is corroboration for a reprise in U.S. manufacturing) and Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator report for December.

For the week ended Feb. 6, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey big industry and investment-style dispersions in the stock market (0:43), including winners and losers within tech; more underlying volatility in bonds than meets the eye (5:26); and commodities roiled by volatility as well as dispersion (8:31). They also take note of a massive ongoing decoupling of gold and the “purported digital gold,” bitcoin, that Eric says is putting both mid-tier bitcoin miners and crypto believers to the test. On the macro front (12:41), the brief government shutdown delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January payroll and unemployment reports to Feb. 11. Mark finds expansionary signs in the ISM manufacturing and services reports for January, while cautioning not to read too much in one month’s data. Looking ahead (19:01) to the week of Feb. 9-13, Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for the January labor reports and consumer price index.

DoubleLine Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review changing industry leadership in the stock market (0:18) for the week ended Jan. 30. The Bloomberg Aggregate squeaked through with gains (3:39) despite higher rates while risky fixed income sectors turned negative. Commodities (6:50) moved higher, driven almost entirely by energy. The forex markets (9:30) witnessed coordinated intervention by the U.S. and Japan to stave off more yen weakness. The week’s macro news (10:58) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee, which Wednesday stayed on hold, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference, and President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. For next week’s macro calendar (19:09), Ryan and Mark will be especially interested to see forthcoming labor-market benchmark revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, perhaps even an overhaul of the birth-death model.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the week ended Jan. 23. They survey a mixed bag for stocks (0:31), with the S&P 500 lower on tech and energy and materials the winners; fixed income (2:06) slightly negative on spillover effects from the selloff in Japanese government bonds and rates up across the Treasury curve; and commodities (3:40) surging higher on energy and precious metals. The macro front (5:43) brought the shutdown-delayed release of benign readings, to be taken “with a big grain of salt,” on the PCE Deflator for October and November; and a weakening in personal income, resulting in a declining personal savings rate. Topping the week ahead (13:36) will be the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference on Jan. 28. Fed funds futures price in a mere 3% probability of a rate cut at the FOMC meeting, rising to only 33% by the end of Powell’s mandate.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the market week ended Jan. 16. They observe dispersion among stock-market sectors (0:50), with Real Estate climbing on President Trump pressuring the Government Sponsored Enterprises to buy more mortgage securities in an effort to lower mortgage rates. A mixed bag also prevailed in fixed income (5:00), with Treasury yields in the belly of the curve moving out 5-6 basis points while non-traditional credit sectors still provided positive returns. Commodities (6:52) tacked on gains as crude oil responded to risks of U.S. military strikes and Iranian threats of retaliation. Interestingly, both the dollar (8:46) and gold were up on the week and year-to-date. In the week’s macro news (10:26), the December consumer price index, notes Mark Kimbrough, offered “some clues that core good inflation is moderating.” For the Jan. 19-23 week, topping the billboard will be the November print of the PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a positive 2025 for stocks, bonds and commodities (1:22), with outperformance in European and emerging market equities. After scanning the first YTD returns for the New Year (5:46), they dive into a data-heavy macro week (9:02) ended Jan. 9. Topping the week’s prints are mixed December labor readings and trade-deficit narrowing that sufficed to raise the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow annualized estimate for 4Q2025 to 5.4% from 2.9%. A review of fed fund futures pricing (17:06) indicates a Fed standing pat until odds for a rate cut reach to a coin flip on April 29, presumably Jerome Powell’s last day to preside over the Federal Open Market Committee. Looking to the week ahead (17:55), topping Jeff and Ryan’s watch list will be the December CPI report (due Tuesday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review markets for the week ended Dec. 19 and close a year that saw gains across equities and fixed income as well as stellar precious metals. Stocks (0:52) registered a meager return for the week but gained nearly 18% YTD. In fixed income (3:11), Treasury yields fell across the curve on the week. The Bloomberg Aggregate has returned more than 7% YTD. Broad commodities (4:32) are up almost 15% for the year and flattish for the week. Silver and gold continued to surge to new all-time highs and platinum to its highest level since 2008. The week’s macro review (9:06) included somewhat weak labor market readings and a surprisingly weak consumer price index for November. Both reports, Eric and Ryan caution, should be taken with a grain of salt, given effects of the recent government shutdown and seasonality. With the holiday season, the Dec. 22-26 week ahead promises to be a quiet one for data releases. One of the few notable prints will be the updated estimate due Tuesday of 3Q2025 gross domestic product.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and cross-asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Dec. 8-12 week, notable for stocks (0:34) erasing the week’s gains after Thursday’s all-time high on the S&P 500. Heavy selling in tech names drove the downside with financials, materials and industrials nonetheless diverging higher. In fixed income (2:03), the Treasury curve steepened as longer yields moved higher, shorter yields lower, in the wake of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s news conference. Broad commodities (3:10) fell, with crude oil posting the biggest losses. Precious metals continued to rally with silver continuing to gain momentum. For the week’s macro stories (5:45), Mark Kimbrough covers small business optimism, JOLTS, employment-cost and unemployment-claims stories. Then he and Jeff Mayberry turn their attention (11:14) to the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting, its quarter-point fed funds cut and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference amid growing if still-minority policy dissents, signs of weakening labor and a murky outlook on inflation. Looking to the week ahead (20:49), Jeff and Mark will be on the lookout for payroll and unemployment reports, retail sales,  S&P Global manufacturing and services reports (Tuesday); and jobless claims and November CPI (Thursday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a mixed performance for markets in November, with the S&P 500 ticking up slightly despite a rough run for tech stocks. But that same sector experienced a bit of a bounce back amid a risk revival in the first week of December (2:20), which also included a strong rate rally on the front end of the interest rate curve heading into a likely Fed cut next week (3:30), a healthy run for commodities (5:22) and more volatility for Bitcoin (6:05). Over in Macro Land (9:26), the week’s prints included a split picture on ISM PMI manufacturing and services data, a soft ADP labor print (10:38) and a consumer sentiment report that underscores an optimism gap between survey responses and hard data (13:39). Next week (16:50), the FOMC will hold its final meeting of 2025, with futures markets forecasting a 95% chance for another rate cut.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the week ended Nov. 21, with stocks lower on AI speculation skepticism (0:48), positive high-grade bond returns (2:17) and easing commodities (4:36). Their macro review (9:08) includes the resumption of the government statistical mills, idled by the 43-day shutdown, which churned out a mixed bag of overdue labor market data. While fed funds futures are pricing in likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut Dec. 10, Eric Dhall warns weeks of macro prints lie ahead and regards the odds at this point in time as a coin flip. Among the prints due during the Thanksgiving week ahead (19:45), Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for stale-but-we’ll-have-to-take-it September reports of the PPI, retail sales and durable goods; and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a mixed market week (Nov. 10-14) that marked the end of the federal government shutdown and production of the penny. Equities were up a bit on the week with some pretty interesting dispersion (00:34); fixed income was flat (2:32); energy pumped up commodities (3:49); and Bitcoin fell below the important structural marker of $100k (6:25), with Eric and Ryan noting that the drop is reflective of broader risk sentiment. Over in Macro Land (11:04), they discuss the timeline for government data releases and the likelihood that there will be some holes in October prints. Among non-U.S. government data sources (14:56), they review small-business optimism, weekly payroll numbers and state jobless claims. Next week (18:22) will deliver the FOMC October minutes and some PMI numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall review a negative week ended Nov. 7, 2025, for stocks (00:48), with the year’s high-flying Tech and Communication Services sectors the worst performers on the week; a mixed bag in fixed income (3:06); and flat commodities (4:00). With government JOLTS, payrolls, factory orders and trade reports sidelined by the federal executive branch shutdown, macro pickings (5:43) were largely limited to private data sources, including contractionary manufacturing and expansionary services reports from the ISM. One notable exception was a Congressional Budget Office quantitative analysis relating projected lengths of the shutdown to hits to fourth quarter GDP growth. “The shutdown is really starting to weigh on the economy,” Eric notes, “as we know that government spending is additive to the GDP equation.” Looking to macro reports for Nov. 10-14 (10:08), Jeff Mayberry notes, “If you think Nov. 3-7 was bare, next week is terrible. There’s nothing. No CPI, no PPI, no retail sales. As for the Small Business Optimism number, that’s it for next week.”  

DoubleLine Cross Asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a week ended Oct. 31 with just two sectors, tech and consumer discretionary, holding the S&P 500 above water, and risk sectors of fixed income – high yield, bank debt and emerging markets – showing gains with investment grade sectors lower as yields shifted higher across the curve. On the macro front, the first meeting by U.S. President Trump in his second term with China President Xi, Ryan notes, “removed some of the tail risk of further trade-war escalation.” However, the week’s biggest market-moving event came out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, cut the federal funds target rate 25 basis points. Powell’s flat advisory against assuming a further rate cut at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting lowered market-priced probabilities for such a cut from as high as 95% to 60% and pushing yields up along the curve. Looking ahead to Nov. 3-7, given the idling of government statistical mills during the shutdown, Mark and Ryan have private-sector data releases for October on their menu: ISM Manufacturing (Monday); ADP private employment and ISM Services (Wednesday); University of Michigan consumer expectations survey (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough analyze the week ended Oct. 24 with stocks with tech leading on a benign September CPI print, fixed income eking out its carry and commodities led higher by WTI on U.S. sanctions against Russian crude oil. Gold, they note, posted its first negative week since mid-August. On the economic front, in the absence of national jobless claims data due to the federal government shutdown, Mark Kimbrough notes state-level stats suggest no undue stress in labor markets. S&P Global PMI data show an expansionary U.S. economy in both manufacturing and services sectors. Turning to the effects of the government shutdown, Mark unearths some research from the 1970s indicating that while delays in data collection probably will have little impact on the quality of the October nonfarm payrolls once that statistical series resumes reporting, biases due to poor memory recall could degrade the fidelity of the household U-3 unemployment survey and especially the CPI for the month of October. Looking ahead to the week of Oct. 27-31, Jeff and Mark will be especially interested Wednesday in guidance coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (after it is expected to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point) and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the markets and macro news for the week of Oct. 13-17 as the government shutdown reaches Day 17. It was a pretty positive week for stocks (00:29), with the only negative sector, financials, impacted by “a string of one-off credit events”; the Agg was up during a pretty quiet week for fixed income (3:07); and commodities were up (5:13), with precious metals up despite a dip in gold. It was another light week for macro data due to the shutdown (7:12), but Jeff and Ryan look at metrics including small business optimism, state jobless claims and credit card data. Fedspeak (13:05) events included Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell discussing QT policy ahead of the blackout period for the October FOMC meeting. Jeff and Ryan also field a listener question on whether mortgage rates coming in due to mortgage spreads tightening could lead to inflation (14:37), with them noting that rates would have to come in a lot for the current dynamic to change.

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Oct. 6-10 week, punctuated by a Friday trade-war fright that reversed the week’s gains in stocks (0:27) and spurred a flight to safety into bonds (3:47). Commodities (6:11) followed energy lower, and gold consolidated near $4,000 an ounce. The “debasement trade” (6:25) attributed to gold’s winning streak is a topic for discussion, with Eric and Mark reminding listeners that despite gold’s luster as an asset outside the manipulations of fiat currencies, ultimately central banks’ appetite for bullion, or lack of it, will help decide where gold prices go from here. The week’s macro data (10:00) showed gradual weakening in consumer credit and, via the FOMC minutes, a flock of “scared doves” behind the Sept. 17 fed funds rate cut. Due to the government shutdown, the Oct. 13-17 week (17:41), Eric and Mark note, perhaps will be most notable for the scheduled government indicators that are NOT released: CPI, PPI and import prices on the inflation front and retail sales. Among the few major releases expected are the Federal Reserve’s beige book and industrial production report.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3 against the backdrop of a federal government shutdown. Eric and Ryan discuss the continuing strong run for equities on the back of high-fliers for September, Q3 and year-to-date (00:25) as well as healthy returns across all three time periods for fixed income (3:54) and commodities (5:38). While data delivery was light in Macro Land due to the shutdown, Eric and Ryan do take a look at prints that reflect a softening labor market (14:37), waning consumer confidence (19:00), weakening PMI numbers (19:44) and lower home prices (21:49). Next week could be a light week or very light week for data (24:35), depending on the shutdown, with the University of Michigan consumer survey among the nongovernmental prints on the schedule.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough chart a quiet week ended Sept. 26 for equities (0:36) and fixed income (1:53) while commodities advanced led by energy. The week’s macro prints (4:40) included preliminary expansionary readings for manufacturing and services on the S&P PMI for September; revision of second-quarter GDP to 3.8% annualized; and Core PCE preserving a disinflationary trend, albeit with a recent pick-up in services prices. Looking ahead (12:25) to the week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3, the big question will be whether a budget standoff between congressional Republicans and Democrats leads to a government shutdown on Oct. 1. If the federal bureaucracy goes dark, private data such as the ADP employment report, Jeff Mayberry notes, could become more important than usual, given the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and other reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the Sept. 15-19 week, with stocks (0:22) rallying to new highs on tech, comm services and consumer discretionary; yield-curve steepening (2:15); and commodities weakening amid strength in precious metals (3:40). The week’s macro news (7:04) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarter-point fed funds rate cut and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Sept. 17 indicating a preoccupation with risks to the labor market, albeit in a context of ongoing concern about the future path of inflation. While forecasts in some corners called for as many as three FOMC member dissents, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who has called for three 0.5% federal funds rate cuts over the last three FOMC meetings of 2025, voted in disagreement with Wednesday’s quarter-point cut. However, Eric and Ryan take note of the extraordinary dispersion among FOMC members over the future course of monetary policy. Looking ahead to the week of Sept. 22-26 (21:43), Eric and Ryan will be particularly focused on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August. Based on CPI, PPI and import and export prices, economists’ consensus forecasts a relatively benign month-over-month increase of 20 basis points (0.20%), which would leave the year-over-year Core PCE increase unchanged at 2.9%.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a pretty positive run for markets for the week of Sept. 8-12, with performance impacted by investors believing a Fed cut is all but assured next week. The tech sector pushed the S&P 500 to more record highs (1:05), fixed income was supported by a rally on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve (3:27), and commodities were up on the back of industrial and precious metals (6:06). Over in Macro Land, the BLS released steep prelim benchmark revisions to establishment survey jobs data, but Eric and Mark caution the final numbers could vary (7:57); Mark breaks down the deceleration in the PPI print (11:02); Eric and Mark look at the most recent CPI print and whether its supportive of a Fed cut (13:43); they review job numbers that are supportive of a Fed cut (16:15); and they talk about the latest dour outlook in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (17:36). Next week, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with the only real speculation is on whether it will be a 25-bp (most likely) or 50-bp cut and if FOMC nominee Stephen Miran will be approved in time to participate in this meeting.

Stocks (0:33) were mixed the week ended Sept. 5 as yields (1:51) fell across the fixed income universe and commodities (4:16) were flat with gold among the winners and crude oil and industrial metals lower. In the week’s macro news (5:12), DoubleLine Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel notes, was dominated by weakening in the labor market in August. That weakness, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry says, translated into the federal funds futures market pricing in 2.9 quarter-point cuts over the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2025 and six cuts, totaling 150 basis points, over the next 15 months. Looking ahead to the Sept.8-12 week (16:09), Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions (Tuesday), August producer price index (Wednesday), consumer price index and jobless claims (Thursday) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a mostly quiet week ended Aug. 29 and the month of August. On the week, equities (0:40) proved a mixed bag, with energy leading upside sectors, and utilities and tech heading lower. Tech pressured by news Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek will rely on Chinese chip manufacturers. Common stocks also witnessed outperformance in small-cap and equal-weighted indexes. Fixed income (2:43) hosted further steepening of the Treasury yield curve. Commodities gained (4:18), led by precious metals, with the dollar ending the week flat.   Amid the week’s mostly benign macro news (5:15) such as a bounce-back in capital goods orders decent personal income and spending, Mark Kimbrough notes, a positive second-quarter GDP report notwithstanding, a weak 1Q-2Q growth rate for private domestic final purchases. Turning to Fed watch (11:46), Jeff Mayberry reports the futures markets on Aug. 29 are pricing in an 88% probability of a federal funds rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets Sept. 17 and 2.7 quarter-point cuts total in 2025. Looking ahead to macro news (12:29) in the abbreviated week of Sept. 2-5, Jeff and Mark will be especially focused on the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports due on Friday.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the market week of Aug. 18-22, which started out as a little bit of a down run for equities before being boosted by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday. Chair Powell’s comments seemed to raise prospects for a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. In addition to the stock bounce, fixed income (3:20) and commodities (4:50) had positive weeks. Eric and Ryan conclude the market recap with a review of Chair Powell’s speech and the market reaction to what had been expected to be a more hawkish stance (5:40). Over in Macro Land (10:35), topics covered include housing data; labor numbers; and strong S&P Global PMI prints, which notably contrast with ISM’s weaker prints. Next week’s releases will include durable goods data and the latest PCE number.

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough dissect a market week ended Aug. 15 marked by positive stocks, with an interesting dispersion within the asset class (0:46); bonds troubled by inflation readings (3:14); and flat commodities (4:45). The week’s macro calendar (7:38) was packed with inflation news. After a noncommittal July CPI, a hawkish July PPI prompted a selloff in rates and moderated Fed rate-cut probabilities for the remainder of 2025, with the futures market pricing in two cuts by year-end. On Friday, a 4% import-prices jump for July exceeded expectations, albeit the year-over-year change was -0.2%. Looking ahead to the week of Aug. 18-22, Eric and Mark will have on their radar (19:59), among other news, the FOMC July 30 meeting minutes (Wednesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech (Friday) at the Kansas City Fed’s annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel break down market moves of the week ended Aug. 8, 2025, following a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting interest-rate expectations. They discuss a rebound in equities (00:56), a modest pullback in fixed income after last weeks’ rally (2:48), a mixed picture for commodities (4:04) and currency dynamics (7:08). Over in Macro Land (9:35), Eric and Ryan review a quiet data week, highlighting durable goods revisions, ISM services softness and jobless claim trends. They also explore the implications of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the nomination of a dovish Fed governor. Next week’s prints will include possibly impactful CPI and PPI reports (18:26).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the stock, bond and commodity markets for the month of July (0:37) and the “week of volatility” ended Aug. 1 (3:39). The latter, they note, was driven by a week packed with macro news (7:41). That environment included a more hawkish-than-expected Fed chairman amid rare public dissents on the FOMC on Wednesday and Friday’s overwhelmingly negative payroll and unemployment reports. Mark Kimbrough also singled out the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly funding announcement (9:16). With elevated deficits locked in under Trump’s budget legislation, Mark notes there was “a sigh of relief” in the T-bill market after the government announced “nominal-coupon and floating-rate auction sizes are expected to remain stable for the next several quarters.” Jeff Mayberry, watching fed funds rate expectations (21:33), says the futures market, on Powell’s guidance, Wednesday had priced in 1.3 quarter-point cuts by the end of 2025. Those market odds surged to 2.3 cuts on Friday’s labor reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the week ended June 25, featuring a run of daily highs for the S&P 500 Index buoyed by resurgent retail speculation, a pretty good week for bonds (3:58) and more struggles for commodities (6:00). Over in Macro Land (7:15), it was a light week of prints, including a dip in the LEI, some soft home sales data and a mixed picture for PMI manufacturing and services. Next week (14:20) will bring the FOMC meeting and the possibility for rate-cut dissent drama and potential Fed chair auditions as well as labor, inflation and GDP numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the week ended July 18, including tech-driven new highs in equities (0:46), a bond market shaped by a steepening yield curve (2:28) and gains in the broad commodity market (4:42). The week’s macro news (6:52) was led by tame reports on the consumer and producer price front. Core CPI for June posted its fifth consecutive monthly surprise to the downside versus consensus expectations. Notwithstanding a short-lived media trial balloon from the Trump administration about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the markets (16:09) are pricing in no action on the fed funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30, and only two cuts in the second half of 2025.

For the week ended July 11, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel first sort through a pause in the stock rally (0:47), bonds (2:34) giving back a bit on higher rates and higher commodity prices (4:34) amid U.S. tariffs announced on copper. While “copper got hit with a 50% tariff in the U.S.,” Eric Dhall notes July 11 that copper prices fell on the London Metal Exchange over the week while rising 9% in the U.S. “A bit of a mismatch there depending on where you’re delivering copper.” The impact of the tariff remains an open question. “It depends on how the tariff applies. Does it apply to raw copper ore? To finished copper? It’s a complicated beast. That’s why you didn’t see the U.S. price surge more than that 9%.”   Ryan Kimmel (6:19) notes that stocks seem to be interpreting tariff drama as negotiating tactics rather than a serious threat to growth. Meanwhile, in the wake of passage of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” he sees “higher term premium baked into the long end” of the Treasury yield curve. Surveying macro news for the past two weeks (7:42), Eric Dhall and Ryan see more weakness in labor markets than would suggest a superficial read of headline household and establishment survey numbers, with the prospects of a diminishing labor force given an expected ramp-up of illegal immigrant deportations.   Turning to Fed watch (13:52), Eric and Ryan note increasing odds of a cut in the federal funds target rate at the Sept. 17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. They ponder the prospect of an “Apprentice-style battle” among candidates to succeed Chairman Jerome Powell. All eyes during the July 14-18 week (15:20) will be on Tuesday’s release of the June CPI report, especially any indications of tariff impacts, and Wednesday’s release of the PPI.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap market performance for the week of June 23-27 as well as the month and second quarter, which was a pretty good run for asset holders. They review the healthy performances for stocks (00:18) and bonds (2:48), recap a rough period for commodities (4:04), check in on the safe-haven assets of gold and Bitcoin (5:02) and discuss the economic bellwether of copper and the U.S. dollar (5:42). Over in Macro Land (7:01), prints include prelim U.S. PMI numbers for June that reflect a decent expansion period; home prices in April experiencing their second month of contraction (9:31); a new Q1 GDP estimate (11:19), which prompts Eric and Mark to note the importance of waiting for the merged data for trade-flow-impacted Q1 and Q2; and PCE numbers that are moving in the Fed’s direction (17:53).   There will be no episode next week with Friday’s holiday, but the show will return July 11. Have a Happy Fourth of July!

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a relatively flat market week shortened by Thursday’s Juneteenth federal holiday. In their rundown of stocks (1:00), fixed income (2:20) and commodities (4:30), Eric and Mark note there was little market volatility despite ongoing trade policy uncertainty and the Israel-Iran conflict. Gold, a safe-haven asset, was actually down on the week. Over in Macro Land (7:01), the week’s prints included retail sales, import prices and jobless claims, with the market seeming to shrug in response to each release. The big news event of the week was Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (11:38), with the Fed keeping rates steady. Eric and Mark discuss the details of the FOMC officials’ decision to sit on their hands and the prospects for cuts this year. Next week’s prints (17:19) will include PMI manufacturing and services, housing prices, consumer confidence, durable goods and inflation. This episode was recorded June 20, 2025, before market close.