″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%). Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance. Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form. What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance. Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India. Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...] ---Outline:(00:19) Executive summary(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:22) Geopolitics(09:24) Middle East(11:18) Europe(13:18) The Americas(13:21) Latin America(16:06) North America(20:22) Asia(21:22) Africa(21:43) Biorisk(23:07) Economy(25:08) Nature and climate --- First published: February 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.