Sentinel Minutes

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the US did not end up sending a delegation for a fresh round of talks in Oman. Will Iran take fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 64% (60% to 68%) probability that this will occur. Between now and the end of the year, will Brent crude reach a price of $100 per barrel again? Forecasters give this a 29% (20% to 34%) chance. Technology and AI: OpenAI released GPT-5.6 following a US government review process and claimed that it produced a proof of a decades-old mathematical conjecture in under an hour. The US government is considering an executive order that would regulate open-source AIs, while China is mulling export controls on its most advanced models. Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? We give this a 73% (65% to 80%) chance. Will China restrict foreign usage of its top AI models by March 2027? We’re broadly unsure, at a 45% (22% to 55%) chance. Biorisk: The Ebola outbreak [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(02:30) Geopolitics(02:33) Middle East(04:47) Europe(06:03) United States(08:23) Asia(08:41) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:13) Biorisk --- First published: July 13th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-ceasefire-breaks-openai-releases --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

No dramatic global cyberattacks yet :( Executive summary Geopolitics: Russia closed its railway border crossings with Estonia, Latvia and Finland, prompting speculation about a possible mobilization of troops. Before January 2, 2027, will Russia launch a mass mobilization that involves at least one of the following: involuntary mobilization of at least 300k reservists, forced deployment of active-duty reservists to combat zones, or involuntary mobilization of at least 300k male civilians above and beyond the compulsory 12-month draft requirement? We think there's a 41% (15% to 85%) chance. Will at least 100 Russian troops enter Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and/or Estonia in hostility (in total), by July 1, 2027? Irregular forces will count. We think there's a 4% (0.5% to 25%) probability. If so, will NATO forces capture or kill at least 100 Russian troops in one or more of these countries, combined, by July 1, 2027 as reported by ISW? There's forecaster dissent [58% (11% to 90%)] as to this probability. If so, will the following countries all come to the military aid of the invaded country(ies): Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, France, and Britain? We think there's a 91% (50% [...] ---Outline:(00:26) Executive summary(03:03) Geopolitics(03:06) Europe(06:22) Middle East(07:09) Asia(07:30) United States(07:57) Africa(08:52) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:16) Biorisk --- First published: July 6th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-export-controls-lifted --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

& Federal Reserve Independence & a deadly fungus. Executive summary Geopolitics: Shipping traffic markedly rose in the Strait of Hormuz before falling back because of renewed fighting between the US and Iran, who later agreed to a renewed ceasefire. Russian-occupied Crimea declared an emergency following supply shortages and power cuts resulting from Ukrainian attacks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 43% (30% to 62%) chance. What about on October 15, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 71% (60% to 80%) chance. Will Ukraine control all of Crimea by the end of 2026? Our forecasters give this a 14% (3% to 75%) probability. Will Putin still be the President of the Russian Federation on July 1, 2027? We think there's a 87% (65% to 94%) chance. Will more than 5,000 Pakistani law enforcement, other security personnel and troops be killed in 2026 within Pakistan? Our forecasters think there's a 3.4% (0.1% to 15%) probability. Technology and AI: Alex Bores, who co-authored one of the world's few pieces of legislation that attempts to mitigate catastrophic risks [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(02:55) Geopolitics(02:58) Middle East(04:46) Europe(06:11) United States(08:08) Asia(08:55) Africa(09:11) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:22) Biorisk(14:28) Nature and climate --- First published: June 29th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-iran-resumed-fighting-before --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Ebola is really about to take off. Executive summary Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 43% (30% to 60%) probability, but see below for the operationalization of the question. What about on October 15, 2026? Forecasters think there's a 61% (60% to 65%) chance. Will Ukraine become a full member of the European Union before 2030? Our forecasters believe there's a 22% (11% to 45%) probability. Technology and AI: Open-weight models are narrowing the gap with closed-weight frontier models on some benchmarks. The US fears that China has access to a lithography machine used to manufacture chips that is produced exclusively by Dutch company ASML. Will the US government explicitly prevent an AI model trained by a company other than Anthropic from being released to [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(02:43) Geopolitics(02:45) Middle East(04:25) Europe(05:46) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:18) Biorisk(12:32) Nature and climate --- First published: June 22nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-rises-us --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia's economy. Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability. Before August 2026, will a US-Iran peace deal be signed, involving a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (with or without a toll system)? Our forecasters think there's a 76% (70% to 85%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic's Fable 5 model was released to the general public, before access was revoked for everyone after the US government imposed export controls. The US's Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) was barred from publishing model assessments. Will access to Anthropic's Fable 5 model be restored to the US general public before July 2026? Our forecasters are broadly uncertain, giving this a 64% (50% to 75%) chance. If so, will non-US citizens residing in Europe gain access to it again? Our forecasters are fairly confident about [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(03:28) Geopolitics(03:31) Middle East(04:30) Europe(05:02) Technology and artificial intelligence(08:42) Biorisk(10:19) Economy(10:49) Nature and climate --- First published: June 15th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-imposes-export --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since the fragile ceasefire began in April. A Ukrainian maritime drone crashed into a Black Sea port in Romania. Before September 2026, will a NATO country invoke Article 4 consultations in response to suspected or proven Russian aggression? Our forecasters think there's a 21% (12% to 40%) chance. Will a peace agreement between the US and Iran, that includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping with or without a toll system, be signed before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 28% (21% to 35%) chance. Technology and AI: Trump signed an executive order that calls on frontier AI labs to provide the US government with early access to their models for pre-deployment testing. Will Anthropic, OpenAI and Google DeepMind voluntarily act in accordance with Trump's executive order 14409 through the end of 2026? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 77% (63% to 93%) probability. Biorisk: While the Ebola outbreak continues to grow, hundreds of suspected cases and deaths were removed from official case tallies, with the WHO now reporting 93 confirmed deaths. The New World screwworm has been found [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:23) Geopolitics(02:26) Middle East(03:51) Europe(05:32) The Americas(05:49) Technology and artificial intelligence(08:12) Biorisk(11:37) Economy --- First published: June 8th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-and-israel-exchange-fire-for --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people. Israel continues to strike Lebanon and Gaza. Will at least 10,000 deaths in Gaza and Lebanon be attributed to Israeli military action between June 1 and September 1, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 19% (7% to 35%) chance. Biorisk: Reported Ebola deaths continued to rise, though at a slower pace. There are currently between 220 and 300 suspected deaths. Will at least two countries besides the DRC have at least 1,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Bundibugyo Ebolavirus by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% (20% to 50%) chance. Will there be more than 20,000 confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola in the current outbreak by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 55% (35% to 70%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic surpassed OpenAI's valuation in its latest funding round. What is the chance that Anthropic's valuation will exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027? Our forecasters estimate that there's a 35% (20% to 51%) probability. Economy: Will the hourly Brent crude oil futures [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:11) Geopolitics(02:14) Middle East(03:55) Europe(05:00) Asia-Pacific(05:33) The Americas(05:36) Latin America(05:59) The United States(07:12) Africa(07:25) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:27) Biorisk(14:00) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 1st, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drone-hits-romanian-apartment --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. Rubio called Cuba a leading state sponsor of terror and questioned whether diplomacy with the regime would work. Will the US carry out a strike on Cuba's territory by the end of July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 34% (20% to 50%) chance. Biorisk: The number of suspected deaths in the current Ebola outbreak has exceeded 200. How many suspected deaths will there be due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of June and by the end of 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 90% confidence intervals are 870 to 18K and 3.5K to 200K respectively. Will there be more than 10 recorded cases of Ebola in the US and Europe by the end of 2026, including imported cases? Our forecasters think there's a 68% (50% to 85%) chance. Technology and AI: Trump held back from signing an executive order encouraging AI labs to have their models reviewed by the US government prior to release. OpenAI said that a general-purpose model has autonomously solved an Erdos problem, while DeepMind said one of its models has solved [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:34) Geopolitics(02:36) Middle East(03:42) Europe(03:56) Asia-Pacific(04:21) The Americas(04:24) Latin America(06:08) The United States(06:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:19) Biorisk(15:24) Economy --- First published: May 25th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/renewed-us-iran-negotiations-openai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Technology and AI: The US and China discussed AI guardrails to mitigate risks from frontier AI models. Will the US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027 in which both governments state or clearly imply reciprocal expectations, commitments, rules, or norms governing AI development, deployment, security, or military use? Our forecasters believe there's a 21% (15% to 35%) probability. Before 2027, will the US publicly support creating or moving toward an international AI governance body with an IAEA-like role that includes China? Our forecasters think there's a 8.7% (5% to 15%) chance. Biorisk: A new Ebola outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. As of June 13, 2026, what will be the cumulative total number of recorded deaths linked to the Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak first confirmed in Ituri Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in May 2026? Our forecasters’ aggregate 50th percentile estimate is 208 (185 to 230). Geopolitics: Donald Trump again warned Iran to agree to a peace deal quickly, and shared an AI-generated image of him pressing a red button with a mushroom cloud in the background. [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:51) Geopolitics(02:53) Middle East(03:43) Europe(04:09) The Americas(04:11) Latin America(07:21) The United States(07:48) Asia-Pacific(08:00) Africa(09:06) Technology and artificial intelligence(11:04) Biorisk(12:56) Economy --- First published: May 18th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-china-discuss-ai-guardrails --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Donald Trump called Iran's response to the US’ latest peace proposal “totally unacceptable”. Vladimir Putin hinted that the Russia-Ukraine war may be nearing an end. Will Russia and Ukraine end the war with a signed agreement by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 35% (25% to 50%) chance. Technology and AI: The White House is reportedly considering introducing an executive order mandating that the government reviews new AI models before they are released to the public. Will the US Federal Government through executive order or legislation regulate the release of all new AI models from frontier laboratories by November 3rd, 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 32% (27% to 40%) probability. Economy: The S&P 500's rebound since late March has been driven by the smallest number of stocks on record, namely a handful of Big Tech stocks. Will the tech companies Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple account for at least 65% of overall growth of the S&P 500 in Q4 of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 33% (15% to 60%) chance. Biorisk: Passengers who were on the cruise ship associated with the hantavirus outbreak are [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:40) Geopolitics(02:43) Middle East(03:35) Europe(04:37) The Americas(04:40) Latin America(05:02) The United States(05:35) Asia-Pacific(06:12) Technology and artificial intelligence(07:46) Economy(09:13) Biorisk(11:44) Nature and climate --- First published: May 11th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-stalemate-continues-putin --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran unveiled a fresh peace proposal, but Trump was not satisfied with it and says that Iran has not paid a big enough price for the war to end yet. The US said it would guide stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran warned it could attack US naval vessels in response. Will Congress put any constraints on the war in Iran by June 1, 2026, using the War Powers Act? Our forecasters think there's a 6% (5% to 7%) chance. Will there be a new conflict in Africa that kills over 100 thousand people before May 1, 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 17% (15% to 30%) chance. Technology and AI: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 was found to have a similar level of performance to Anthropic's Mythos model on the UK AISI's suite of cyber tasks. Unlike Mythos, it has been publicly deployed. Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5, making it unavailable to the general public, before 2027 because of its use in cyberattacks? Our forecasters believe there's a 7% (5% to 8%) chance. Economy: Brent crude oil prices reached a new war-related high, as did gas prices in the US. Outgoing [...] ---Outline:(00:18) Executive summary(02:09) Geopolitics(02:12) Middle East(03:07) The Americas(03:48) The United States(04:58) Europe(05:30) Africa(06:03) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:10) Economy(13:08) Biorisk(13:37) Nature and climate --- First published: May 4th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-says-it-will-target-us-naval --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Another round of peace talks between the US and Iran failed to materialise, with Iran only committing to indirect talks in Islamabad and US negotiators cancelling their trip to Pakistan. Will direct or indirect US-Iran negotiations, with representatives from both nations present in the same country, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's an 80% (75% to 85%) chance. Will the US end its naval blockade of Iranian ports before June 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 47% (33% to 70%) chance. Will US strikes on Iranian territory, excluding strikes on boats, ships and waterborne drones, resume before June 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 46% (40% to 55%) probability. Technology and AI: Unauthorized users reportedly gained access to Anthropic's Mythos model. Will Anthropic release a model to the general public that outperforms Mythos Preview on over 50% of examined benchmarks including the words “agentic” and “coding” before 2027? Our forecasters think there's a 73% (51% to 90%) chance. Economy: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump's nominee to be Federal Reserve Chair looks set to get a Senate hearing after the Department of Justice dropped its case [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:31) Geopolitics(02:34) Middle East(04:18) Asia(05:26) The Americas(05:29) The United States(06:26) The Rest of the Americas(07:05) Europe(07:17) Economy(08:24) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:59) Nature and climate(12:57) Miscellaneous --- First published: April 27th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-iran-peace-talks-called-off-unauthorized --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends. Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance. Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability. Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance. If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability. If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate. If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...] ---Outline:(00:17) Executive summary(03:50) Geopolitics(03:53) Middle East(06:34) The Americas(06:37) The United States(08:55) The Rest of the Americas(09:33) Asia(10:08) Africa(10:23) Economy(12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: April 20th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place. What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance. What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability. What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance. Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:45) Geopolitics(02:48) Middle East(06:18) Europe(07:45) The Americas(07:48) The United States(09:42) The Rest of the Americas(10:01) Asia(10:14) Economy(11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:54) Nature and climate --- First published: April 13th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-to-blockade-iranian-ports-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties. Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 20% (8% to 42%) probability. Will the US place more than 1,000 troops on the ground in Iran before July 2026? We think there's a 39% (20% to 55%) chance. If so, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate estimate is August 12 2026 (80% CI: May 24 2026 - June 3 2030). If not, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate is May 30 2026 (80% CI: April 20 2026 - Sept 13 2027). Will Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party win the Hungarian parliamentary election? We think there's a 44% (35% to 60%) chance. Technology and AI: The authors of AI 2027 updated their forecasts. Anthropic accidentally leaked the source code to Claude Code. [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive summary(03:36) Geopolitics(03:39) Middle East(08:22) Europe(09:52) The Americas(10:41) Asia(10:55) Economy(11:56) Technology and artificial intelligence(14:26) Biorisk --- First published: April 6th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-iranian-power-and --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Israel attacked a number of steel and nuclear sites in Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the beginning of the Iran War. US Marines and Special Operations Forces have arrived in the Middle East, amid increasing discussion of the potential deployment of US combat forces in Iran. Will the Houthis attack or seize at least one ship before May 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 64% (50% to 77%) chance. Will the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 25% (18% to 30%) probability of a government being in power that does not include the IRGC. Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 66% (55% to 80%) chance. Technology and AI: Epoch announced that one of its FrontierMath open problems was solved for the first time, by GPT-5.4 Pro. A federal judge temporarily halted the Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk. Will AI have solved at least 1 problem that qualifies as a “solid result” in Epoch's FrontierMath: Open Problems collection [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:50) Geopolitics(02:53) Middle East(08:03) Europe(09:05) Asia(09:55) The Americas(10:21) Economy(14:11) Technology and artificial intelligence(16:19) Biorisk --- First published: March 30th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iranian-steel-and-nuclear-plants --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: More oil and gas facilities in the Middle East were targeted in Israeli and Iranian attacks. Another US Marine unit is being deployed to the Middle East. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power infrastructure, and Iran threatened to retaliate against critical sites including desalination plants; Trump has backed down for now and says US-Iran talks are ongoing. Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% chance (14% to 55%). Will the US place >10,000 boots on the ground before July? Our forecasters think there's a 13.5% probability (4% to 27%). Technology and AI: An AI agent at Meta reportedly went rogue recently, exposing sensitive data to those who should not have had access. An AI security researcher says that there have been other “loss of control” incidents over the past year. Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 5% chance (3% to 7%). Economy: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed for over three weeks, and several more weeks of [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:46) Geopolitics(02:49) Middle East(07:44) Asia(08:09) The Americas(09:29) Europe(09:45) Economy(12:40) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 23rd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/oil-and-gas-facilities-attacked-in --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US bombed Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil terminal, but spared its oil facilities. A US Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan to the Middle East. Trump said that NATO faces a “very bad future” if its members don’t send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 42% (20% to 75%) chance, Will 10 or more desalination plants in the Middle East be attacked from March 16 to April 15, 2026? Our forecasters assign a 11% (5% to 20%) probability of this happening. When will the US cease major military operations against Iran's territory along with air and naval assets? Our forecasters’ aggregate point estimate is April 19 (March 28 to May 10). Technology and AI: Anthropic is suing the Pentagon for designating the company a supply-chain risk, with Microsoft filing an amicus brief in support of Anthropic's case. A wide range of voices, including Yoshua Bengio, Steve Bannon and Susan Rice, signed the Pro-Human AI Declaration, with polling [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:50) Geopolitics(02:53) Middle East(09:52) Asia(10:10) Europe(10:54) The Americas(12:18) Economy(14:38) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 16th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-nato-us-bombs-kharg --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The Iran War continues, with the US and Israel continuing to strike targets in Iran and Iran continuing to launch drone and missile attacks. Iran is launching decreasing numbers of missiles over time. Will the US place at least 1,000 US troops in Iran before May? Our forecasting team gives this a 21% (7% to 38%) chance. Will there be more than 100 combined US and Israeli deaths before July? Forecasters think there's a 38% (15% to 60%) chance. Will weekly shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to at least 75% of pre-war levels before April and before May? Our forecasters think there's a 39% (20% to 58%) probability before April, and a 61% (50% to 75%) chance before May. What will be the maximum Brent crude oil price before April and before May? Forecasters estimated maxima of $135 ($110 to $150) and $143 ($112 to $175) respectively. Will the month of April see no airspace closures outside Iran that are related to the Iran War? Forecasters think there's a 39% (30% to 55%) chance of this happening. And: Trump continues to hint that he’d like to see [...] ---Outline:(00:23) Executive summary(03:18) Geopolitics(03:21) Middle East(06:52) Asia(08:51) Europe(09:19) The Americas(10:08) Economy(13:00) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-continues-strait-of-hormuz --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly. Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof. Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance. Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability. Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here. Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance. Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(03:02) Geopolitics(03:05) Middle East(07:35) Asia(08:11) Latin America(08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: March 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-israel-strike-iran-iran-retaliates --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continued to move military assets to the Middle East and Europe. A Russian tanker believed to be carrying oil is on its way to Cuba, in potential violation of a US embargo. There is unrest in Mexico after a cartel leader was killed. Will the US strike Iran by March 8, the end of March, or the end of June? Forecasters provide estimates of 38% (25% to 51%), 66% (55% to 75%) and 79% (65% to 90%), respectively. Conditional on this happening by the end of June, will there have been 30 consecutive days without any US strikes on Iran on November 3, 2026 (the date of the midterms)? Forecasters estimate a 78% (60% to 90%) chance. Conditional on a strike by the end of June, will cyberattacks that the team believe were credibly attributed to Iran occur by the end of June and cumulatively lead to more than 10 estimated deaths? Forecasters give a 6.5% (2.0% to 15%) chance. Will the US remove (either partially or completely) sanctions against Cuba by the end of 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 48% (31% to 67%) probability. Will any oil [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:58) Geopolitics(03:01) Middle East(07:19) Europe(08:13) Asia(08:30) Africa(08:46) Latin America(09:55) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:59) Capabilities(12:13) Governance(17:17) Economy --- First published: February 23rd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-buildup-in-middle-east-continues --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance. Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability. Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B. Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof. Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:14) Geopolitics(02:17) Middle East(04:39) Europe(06:58) Asia(07:10) United States(09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:07) Economy(13:22) Biorisk(14:15) Nature and climate(14:43) Miscellaneous --- First published: February 16th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired. Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof. What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%). What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite. Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence(05:46) Geopolitics(05:49) Middle East(06:27) Europe(07:30) Asia(08:12) Biorisk(09:11) Economy(09:48) Nature and Climate --- First published: February 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks. Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%). Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance. Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form. What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance. Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India. Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...] ---Outline:(00:19) Executive summary(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence(09:22) Geopolitics(09:24) Middle East(11:18) Europe(13:18) The Americas(13:21) Latin America(16:06) North America(20:22) Asia(21:22) Africa(21:43) Biorisk(23:07) Economy(25:08) Nature and climate --- First published: February 2nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis. Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability. Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance. Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability. Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance. Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:50) Geopolitics(02:53) Europe(05:38) Middle East(08:33) The Americas(08:36) Latin America(09:09) North America(14:51) Asia(16:26) Africa(16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence(20:12) Economy(22:15) Biorisk(22:43) Nature and climate --- First published: January 26th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase. Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI. Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention. Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026. They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(03:11) Geopolitics(03:14) Europe(07:44) Middle East(11:58) The Americas(12:01) Latin America(13:25) United States(15:00) Asia(15:20) Africa(15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence(19:11) Economy The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: January 19th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil. Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high. They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term. They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(03:56) Geopolitics(03:59) Middle East(06:07) Europe(09:42) The Americas(09:45) Latin America(13:33) United States(16:24) Asia(16:56) Africa(17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: January 12th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran. Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media. Forecasts: Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power. Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025. They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026. They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:33) Geopolitics(02:36) Latin America(09:35) Europe(11:29) Middle East(13:37) Asia(14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence --- First published: January 5th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-attacks-venezuela-and-captures --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The US likely covertly struck a facility in Venezuela. China imposed sanctions on American arms manufacturers following the approval of a new US arms package for Taiwan, and China launched live-fire military exercises aiming to encircle Taiwan. Iran is refusing to allow the IAEA to inspect its damaged nuclear sites. 90% (85% to 93%) probability that the US will intervene militarily in a Latin American country in 2026, which could involve airstrikes or strikes from ships, a ground invasion or limited actions on land. Tech and AI: China is reportedly worried that AI could threaten Communist Party rule in the country but also doesn’t want to overregulate AI and fall behind in a “race” with the US. 8.6% (2.2% to 20%) chance that more than 10 people will die in a drone attack (which could involve multiple drones and either state or non-state actors) in an advanced economy (as defined by the IMF) in 2026. Conditional on such an attack, we also estimate that there is a 16% (6.0% to 30%) chance that more than 100 people would die from a drone attack in 2026. 83% (75% to 90%) [...] ---Outline:(00:24) Executive summary(02:03) Geopolitics(02:06) Europe(03:41) Asia(05:39) Middle East(06:40) The Americas(06:43) Latin America(09:01) United States(09:11) Africa(09:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:56) Biorisk --- First published: December 29th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/forecasts-for-drone-attacks-and-ai --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: The EU opted not to use Russian assets either directly or as collateral to fund Ukraine's defence. The US seized an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and pursued another; one of them was Chinese-owned. The US Congress renewed its military commitments to Ukraine, Taiwan and other allies in Europe and Asia. Tech and AI: METR found that Claude Opus 4.5 has the highest measured time horizon on their suite of multi-step software and reasoning tasks, at around 4 hours and 49 minutes. A former DeepMind Director of Engineering thought, very likely incorrectly, that he had solved a Millennium Prize problem with AI assistance, potentially in an example of AI psychosis/AI-catalyzed hubris. Forecasts This week, we forecasted on a few of the things we think may or may not happen in 2026. We’ll have more for you next week. Forecasters think there's a 5.7% (3% to 15%) chance that the US unemployment rate will rise above 10% at any point in 2026. They think there's a 44% (39% to 50%) probability that a major AI lab will hold an IPO. They believe [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:39) Geopolitics(02:42) Europe(03:46) The Americas(03:48) Latin America(06:52) United States(07:35) More Epstein files were released by the Department of Justice following the success of a discharge petition in Congress, but they were criticised for being heavily redacted. They feature photographs and other materials related to Donald Trump, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, Bill Clinton and others.(09:24) Middle East(10:26) Asia(10:52) Technology and artificial intelligence(14:03) Biorisk --- First published: December 22nd, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-unemployment-and-ipos-in-2026 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027. Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months. They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance. They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026. Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2. And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:52) Geopolitics(02:55) Europe(06:06) Asia(06:38) The Americas(12:22) United States(13:28) Middle East(13:42) Africa(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence(17:49) Economy(18:12) Climate and Nature --- First published: December 15th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-freezes-russian-assets-us-and --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027. Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement. Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick. Forecasts: Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%). Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026. [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(02:30) Geopolitics(02:33) Europe(05:08) Asia(07:06) Middle East(07:27) The Americas(08:46) United States(10:22) Africa(11:16) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:41) Economy(14:31) Biorisk(14:42) Climate and Nature --- First published: December 8th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-signals-diminished-role-in-nato --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue. Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad. Forecasts: Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026. They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025. And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026. Geopolitics Europe Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:40) Geopolitics(01:43) Europe(02:37) The Americas(02:40) Latin America(04:03) United States(05:42) Middle East(07:09) Asia(08:15) Africa(08:59) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:54) Biorisk(11:01) Climate and Nature --- First published: December 1st, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/airspace-closed-over-venezuela-russia --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue. Forecasters believe there's a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026. They estimate that there's a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026. Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:45) Geopolitics(02:48) Europe(05:35) The Americas(05:37) Latin America(08:39) United States(09:26) Middle East(10:37) Asia(10:46) Technology and artificial intelligence(14:26) Economy(15:29) Biorisks --- First published: November 24th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupted an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign. Economy: The President of the New York Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with top Wall Street dealers to discuss signs of stress in money markets. Forecasts: Forecasters estimate that there's a 61% (45% to 75%) chance that the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan will resume peace talks by the end of March 2026. They think there's a 70% (50% to 90%) chance that the Houthis will refrain from attacking ships in the Red Sea through the end of March 2026. They believe there's a 73% (50% to 90%) chance that the US will carry out an attack on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025, and a 47% (20% to 70%) chance that Nicolás Maduro will still be [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(01:51) Geopolitics(01:54) Asia(04:44) Middle East(06:50) The Americas(06:53) Latin America(09:23) United States(10:26) Africa(10:37) Europe(11:04) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:28) Economy(14:20) Biorisks(14:50) Climate --- First published: November 17th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/rising-china-japan-tensions-iran --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher. Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks. Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs. Forecasts: Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026. They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January. And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Executive summary(01:45) Geopolitics(01:47) Middle East(06:02) Africa(06:54) The Americas(06:57) South America(08:24) United States(09:18) Europe(09:39) Asia(10:04) Technology and artificial intelligence(12:39) Economy --- First published: November 10th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacking Venezuela. Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan. Tech and AI: OpenAI plans to develop an automated research intern by September 2026, and a true AI researcher by March 2028. Its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Company was approved by the Attorneys General of California and Delaware. Economy: A one-year trade truce between China and the United States was agreed, covering tariffs and export controls. Forecasts: Forecasters now believe there's a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week. They think there's a 2.2% chance (range: 1% to [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(02:22) Geopolitics(02:25) The Americas(02:28) South America(04:40) United States(06:08) Middle East(09:04) Africa(10:37) Europe(11:07) Asia(11:24) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:48) Economy(15:19) Biorisk --- First published: November 3rd, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-to-send-troops-to --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies. Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoffrey Hinton to Steve Bannon to Prince Harry. Economy: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from Canada after Ontario aired an anti-protectionism ad featuring clips of Ronald Reagan. Biorisk: The fall migration of wild birds is causing bird flu to spread rapidly in Europe, with the highest number of countries reporting early outbreaks for at least a decade, though there haven’t been as many total outbreaks as in 2022. Forecasts: Forecasters believe that there's a 6% chance (range: 1.5% to [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:06) Geopolitics(02:09) The Americas(02:12) South America(06:20) United States(09:00) Asia(10:02) Middle East(11:53) Africa(12:25) Europe(13:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(16:34) Economy(17:06) Biorisk --- First published: October 27th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/aircraft-carrier-ordered-to-the-venezuelan --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US. Economy: Trump said that imposing an additional 100% tariff on China would not be workable. Two regional banks in the US disclosed issues with bad loans. Tech and AI: The UK's internal security agency, MI5, warned of scenarios in which humans might lose oversight and control of AI. Biorisk: We may be [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(02:34) Geopolitics(02:37) Middle East(05:09) Europe(07:03) The Americas(07:06) South America(09:42) United States(12:43) Asia(14:34) Africa(15:34) Technology and artificial intelligence(18:14) Economy(21:49) Biorisk(23:54) Nature and climate --- First published: October 20th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/cia-authorized-to-operate-in-venezuela --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia. Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71% on Friday but partially rebounded on Monday morning. Tech and AI: OpenAI's used subpoenas against advocacy orgs described by critics as overreaching and intimidating. Its deal with AMD resulted in the chipmaker's stock price soaring. Forecasts: Forecasters assigned a 55% probability (range: 40% to 70%) to there being fewer than 150 deaths in [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:40) Geopolitics(02:43) Middle East(05:44) The Americas(05:47) South America(07:42) United States(09:38) Asia(10:09) Africa(10:28) Europe(10:38) Technology and artificial intelligence(13:02) Economy(15:01) Biorisk --- First published: October 13th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-ceasefire-agreed-trump-threatens --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. Executive summary Top items Geopolitics: Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries. US politics: The Trump administration was blocked three times from sending National Guard troops to Portland. Artificial Intelligence: AI progress continues with the releases of Claude 4.5 and Sora 2. California makes addressing AI catastrophic risk a legal requirement. US Senators Hawley and Blumenthal introduce a bill to address the worst risks of AI. Economy: The US economy continues to display indicators of distress. Biorisks: ∅ Climate and nature: ∅ Forecaster estimates: Will [...] ---Outline:(00:25) Executive summary(02:14) Geopolitics(02:17) Europe(04:51) United States(06:46) The Rest of the Americas(08:56) Middle East and South Asia(11:02) Africa(11:29) Asia-Pacific(11:56) Economy(14:41) Artificial Intelligence(17:55) Biological risks(18:41) Climate and Nature --- First published: October 6th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:<img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VBp_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aa8a4a1-4e2e-498a-94fb-b57d2188ac3f_1118x1252.png" alt="Map showing Russian hybrid-warfare attacks on European infrastructure from 2018-2025. The map displays various targets across Europe, marked with different colored dots representing energy/communications, transport, military, water/undersea infrastructure, and other targets. It also indicates assassinations with diamond symbols. Key incidents are labeled, including sabotaged fiber-optic cables, cell towers, and infrastructure attacks from Britain to the Baltic states." style="max-width: 100%;" />Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising. US Politics: US government may face a shutdown, former FBI director indicted. Artificial Intelligence: USG advisors against global governance of AI. Climate and nature: Up to half of Prochlorococcus, a plankton at the bottom of the ocean food chain that produces about 5% of the planet's oxygen through photosynthesis, may die off if the climate significantly rises. Forecaster estimates: 1.2% that [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(02:10) Geopolitics(02:12) Europe(05:13) United States(07:35) The Rest of the Americas(08:38) Middle East(09:17) Asia(09:45) Economy(10:28) Artificial Intelligence(10:31) Policy(14:08) Chips, Datacenters, and Investments(14:39) Evals and Research(16:05) Other AI(17:26) Other technological risks(18:03) Climate and Nature --- First published: September 29th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-may-shoot-down-russian-jets-next --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia's airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella. US Politics: A US comedian's show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left-wing groups. Tech and AI: Open-source AIs were used to design variants of a simple virus genome, eliminating the need for most lab work. Economy: The US Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations. The Shiller PE ratio is 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble. Forecaster estimates: What is the chance that Maduro will [...] ---Outline:(00:19) Executive summary(02:48) Geopolitics(02:51) Europe(05:28) United States(09:46) The Rest of the Americas(12:48) Middle East and Asia(12:51) Pakistan-Saudi Arabia agreement(13:58) Lebanon and Syria(14:06) Iran(14:19) Israel and Gaza(14:51) Indian subcontinent(15:38) Asia-Pacific(16:25) Africa(17:03) Economy(18:04) Artificial Intelligence(23:12) Other technology(24:51) Biorisks(25:55) Climate and Nature --- First published: September 22nd, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-comedians-show-suspended-after --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI's largest compute provider; the deal lifted Oracle's stock price. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Multiple Russian drones entered Poland's airspace, some of which were shot down. Forecasters examined the probability of a Russian incursion by air, land or sea that (accidentally or deliberately) results in the death of a citizen of a NATO country within the next 6 months. Israel carried out an airstrike on Qatar, killing multiple members of Hamas’ political leadership. The US condemned the strike. US Politics: A close Trump ally, conservative activist Charlie Kirk, was assassinated in the US state of Utah, leading to predictions of a rise in [...] ---Outline:(00:32) Executive summary(02:16) Geopolitics(02:19) Europe(05:09) Middle East(06:18) The Americas(06:21) The United States(08:06) Venezuela(09:27) Brazil(09:54) Asia-Pacific(11:20) Technology and artificial intelligence(15:38) Economy --- First published: September 15th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drones-shot-down-over-poland --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Executive Summary Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks. Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large military parade. Biorisk: A large chikungunya outbreak continues to grow in China. Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide. Forecasts ---Outline:(00:22) Executive Summary(01:13) Forecasts(03:54) Economy(09:24) Geopolitics(09:27) Asia(10:57) United States(12:53) The Rest of the Americas(13:48) Europe(15:52) Middle East(17:40) Africa(18:15) Artificial Intelligence(21:41) More tech(22:24) Biorisks(22:37) Climate and Nature --- First published: September 8th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/possible-postwar-ukraine-security --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September. Executive summary Top items: Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members. Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé. Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic identifies AI-driven cyberattacks. $200M pro-AI lobbying group started by OpenAI President and a16z. Economy: Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over irregularities in her real estate filings, raising the prospect of reduced Fed independence in the future. Forecaster estimates: 42% probability that the Supreme Court upholds at least three quarters of Trump's tariffs by [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(01:53) Geopolitics(01:56) Middle East(04:47) Europe(05:43) United States(07:51) The Rest of the Americas(08:50) Asia(09:42) Africa(10:31) Economy(15:16) Artificial Intelligence(19:02) Biorisks(23:17) Other --- First published: September 1st, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthi-pm-and-cabinet-killed-rfk --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025. Executive summary Top items: Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza. Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela. Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model. Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC's official list are not shielded from liability. Forecaster estimates: What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between [...] ---Outline:(00:31) Executive summary(02:07) Geopolitics(02:09) Europe(05:08) Middle East(05:11) Gaza(08:06) Iran(08:29) Yemen(08:40) United States(12:00) The Rest of the Americas(13:58) Asia(14:00) South Asia(14:29) East Asia(16:52) Africa(17:46) Artificial Intelligence(20:34) Economy(21:46) Other technology(22:15) Biorisks(22:57) Climate and Nature --- First published: August 25th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/un-famine-declaration-us-moving-22k --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.” And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military. Geopolitics ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:10) Geopolitics(01:13) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska(05:12) Middle East(06:22) Europe(07:04) United States(08:31) Elsewhere in America(08:41) Asia(09:38) Africa(10:12) Artificial Intelligence(12:21) Biorisk --- First published: August 18th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/a8f8dd54-e796-4d55-af82-882c3a2f7dd6 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Executive summary Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%. Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK. Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.” And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military. We are bottlenecked on distribution, so we’d appreciate it if you shared our work with your networks. [...] ---Outline:(00:29) Executive summary(01:30) Geopolitics(01:33) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska(05:46) Middle East(06:57) Europe(07:44) United States(09:11) Elsewhere in the Americas(09:21) Asia(10:19) Africa(10:53) Artificial Intelligence(13:02) Biorisk --- First published: August 18th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-putin-talks-end-with-no-ceasefire --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

Status: green Executive summary Key items this week are: Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the end of this month. Geopolitics: Putin and US envoy Witkoff met in Moscow to discuss conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump and Putin plan to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a path towards a ceasefire, without Ukraine. Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City. [...] ---Outline:(00:21) Executive summary(02:33) Biorisk(04:09) Geopolitics(04:12) Russia/Ukraine(07:48) Middle East(07:51) Israel and Gaza(09:22) Iran(11:26) United States(14:53) Asia-Pacific(15:59) Europe and the Caucasus(16:27) Africa(16:58) Tech and AI(21:10) Economy(21:12) Tariffs(22:30) US housing market(23:41) Climate and Nature --- First published: August 11th, 2025 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-preparing-to-take-over-gaza --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.