″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Executive summary Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired. Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof. What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%). What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome. Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite. Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...] ---Outline:(00:22) Executive summary(02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence(05:46) Geopolitics(05:49) Middle East(06:27) Europe(07:30) Asia(08:12) Biorisk(09:11) Economy(09:48) Nature and Climate --- First published: February 9th, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.