Are Sub-$9 Soybeans Inevitable??

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Soybean and Wheat Futures WeakeningSoybean futures are moving closer to August lows, with the Jan24 soybean contract dropping 20 cents per bushel on Thursday, hovering around 20 cents from its August low. Factors such as a massive Brazilian crop, the US/China trade tension, and global supply pressures continue to weigh heavily on prices.Similarly, the Dec24 HRW wheat contract dropped 8 cents and is trading just 9 cents above its August low. However, there is some optimism as US winter wheat conditions are likely to improve with the recent rainfall.🏛️ Trump Administration ChangesPresident-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The nomination is expected to face Senate challenges, especially given Kennedy’s controversial stances on food safety, environmental policies, and vaccination.Trump’s tariff proposals continue to attract attention. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, believes tariffs are a necessary tool for addressing unfair trade but emphasized that their implementation needs to be cautious. Despite this, Dimon was not invited to serve in Trump’s administration.🔋 US Ethanol Production Hits Record HighThe US ethanol production reached a record-high last week, with output hitting 1.11 million barrels per day. This exceeded previous records set earlier this year. Ethanol stocks also saw a slight increase of 5% year-over-year. However, implied gasoline demand saw a slight dip of 1.1% compared to the same week last year.🌎 Brazil Adjusts Crop EstimatesBrazil's Conab (National Supply Company) has made slight adjustments to its 2024 corn and soybean crop estimates. The forecast for corn production stands at 119.8mmt, a small increase, with soybean production remaining at 166.1mmt. Exports for both crops have been adjusted slightly as well.💡 Farmers Turning to Generic ChemicalsWith a decline in farm income, farmers are increasingly turning to generic pesticides and fungicides to cut costs. This shift could financially impact large chemical companies like Bayer, Syngenta, and Corteva, particularly as patents on active ingredients expire. Bayer's stock reached a 20-year low due to these changes.🌧️ US Drought Conditions UpdateDrought conditions continue to persist across a large portion of the Corn Belt, although some relief came last week with rainfall across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Drought conditions in Nebraska and Southeast Wisconsin worsened, but significant improvements were noted in the Southern High Plains, including Kansas and Oklahoma.📦 USDA Flash SalesUS soybean export sales were reported at 176,000mt (6 million bushels) for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings the year-to-date soybean export sales up by 17% compared to last year.