Arteris (AIP) Q2 2026 Earnings: The Real Forecast Was In The CFO’s Contract

Arteris, Inc. (AIP) Q2 2026 — Record revenue $24.134M, up 46% and above consensus - but non-GAAP EPS -$0.10 against a -$0.04157 bar, a six-cent MISS on cost. ACV plus royalties $99.5M, up 44%. The 8-K was accepted 4:13pm ET Thu Aug 6 (AMC), so Fri Aug 7 is the reaction: $31.62 to $29.78, DOWN 5.82%. Arteris printed four company records and the stock fell 5.82%. The document nobody read was filed at 8:30 the same morning: an 8-K appointing a new CFO whose performance award vests on $200,000,000 of trailing revenue by end-2030. From the company's own $95-98M guide that is a 20.0% compound rate. Arteris just reported 46%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, PRICE CALL, NOT A BUSINESS-QUALITY CALL) — base-case value ~$28.35 vs ~$29.78 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $28.35 vs the $29.78 close - about 5% below, and 32% below the Street's $42. Path-to-profitability grid to 2030 at an 11% discount: bull $47 / base $27 / bear $14, weighted 30/45/25. - THE PRINT: revenue $24.134M vs $16.502M (+46.2%), above the $23.482M consensus and the $23-24M guide. Licensing $20.824M, royalties $2.103M, services $1.207M vs $0.012M. GAAP operating loss $13.908M; non-GAAP $4.569M. Gross margin 85% vs 89%. - EPS BASIS PROVEN: -$14.065M over 47,276,533 shares is -$0.29751 = the filed -$0.30 GAAP. Add back SBC $6.347M, intangible amortisation $0.777M and acquisition costs $2.215M: -$4.726M, or -$0.09996 = the filed -$0.10 non-GAAP. The -$0.04157 bar is that same basis, so the six-cent miss is real. Q1 -$0.03 + Q2 -$0.10 = the filed H1 -$0.13. - THE MISS IS COST, NOT REVENUE: non-GAAP operating expense went $22.576M (Mar) to $25.530M (Jun), up 13.1% in one quarter, on revenue up 5.2%. The non-GAAP operating loss nearly doubled, $2.519M to $4.569M. - THE LEADING METRIC WENT FLAT: ACV plus royalties exited Q2 at $99.5M (+44%), after $69.1M, $74.9M, $83.6M, $92.8M - five straight quarters of acceleration. Guidance: $99.0-103.0M for Q3 (low end BELOW $99.5M) and $102.0-106.0M exiting the year. The last three quarters added $8.7M, $9.2M, $6.7M; the next two add $4.5M. At 44%, December exits at $120.4M. - THE GUIDANCE LADDER: FY26 revenue $89-93M (Feb) to $91-95M (May) to $95-98M (Aug). ACV $100-104M to $102-106M to $102-106M, unchanged even though Q2 beat its own $95-99M range. Non-GAAP operating loss $5.0-9.0M to $4.5-8.5M to $7.0-10.0M: $3.5M more revenue with $5.5M more cost. - THE BOARD'S OWN FORECAST: an 8-K accepted 8:30am ET Aug 6 appoints Saurabh Sinha CFO from Sept 8, replacing Nick Hawkins. His inducement PSU vests on trailing-four-quarter revenue of $200,000,000 by Dec 31 2030, then a $65 close by Dec 31 2031. From the $96.5M guide midpoint that is a 20.0% CAGR; $65 is 15.4% a year. - VALUATION AND STREET: 49,051,892 shares at $29.78 is $1.461B, not the $1.375B float number on screens. Less $119.8M net cash, EV is $1.341B: 13.9x guided sales, 15.9x trailing, 13.5x ACV. Street 5 Buy / 2 Hold, average $42.00. Jefferies (Garrigan) upgraded to Buy, $50, Aug 7 2026; Roth $40 Aug 4; Oppenheimer $40 Jul 16; Northland $38 May 13. What to watch: UP: revenue +46%, trailing royalties +65%, design starts +21%, RPO $135M, 87% non-GAAP gross margin, $119.8M net cash, positive free cash flow, and a first non-GAAP operating profit implied in December. DOWN: ACV plus royalties guided from $99.5M to $102-106M exiting the year, the Q3 low end below what was just reported, and 4.78M new shares in six months. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.