As Much Fun As a Ride Down a Rusty Slide

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🕊️ Israel-Iran Truce HoldsThe ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains intact. 🌙 Overnight calm continues, and international energy traders are closely watching developments. A Financial Times article explains that a symbolic, pre-communicated strike on a U.S. base in Qatar signaled the conflict would avoid damaging Iran’s key oil infrastructure. ⚠️ Fears about the Straits of Hormuz being closed — and disrupting global oil flow — were eased. Iran’s ally, 🇨🇳 China, would’ve been the hardest hit, giving Iran incentive to avoid escalation.🌽 July Corn Hits New LowsJuly corn futures traded to fresh life-of-contract lows Tuesday, breaking through levels not seen since August 2024. 📉 With first notice day approaching Friday, volume is shifting to the September and December contracts. Hedge funds have mostly rolled out, but ~200,000 contracts remain open. The July–September spread remains inverted, and some in the Eastern Corn Belt believe this could flip to a carry amid continued fund selling and ample commercial supplies. 🏦🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Crop Breaks RecordsBrazil is on track for a record-large second corn crop at 123.3 MMT, per Agroconsult. That’s 9.2% higher than May’s estimate and nearly 20% more than last year’s output. 🌧️ Favorable weather in April and May — especially in Mato Grosso — is boosting yields by nearly 12%. However, this bumper crop is raising concerns about added pressure on already weak domestic prices and sluggish export demand. 💰📦🚢 Corn Flash Sale to MexicoUSDA reported a big corn sale Tuesday: 630,000 MT (25 million bushels) sold to 🇲🇽 Mexico.554,400 MT (22M bu) for 2025/2675,600 MT (3M bu) for 2026/27📊 This supports demand sentiment but hasn’t turned the tide in weak futures yet.🌱 Soybean Oil Fills Chart GapsSoybean oil has slumped, dragged down by falling NYMEX diesel prices (down 40¢ since Sunday). 📉 It’s now testing chart gaps opened during the recent biofuel euphoria. Traders expect those gaps to fill — notably down to 51.19 in the December contract. Smaller gaps between 53.46 and 53.62 are also being eyed. 📈 Technical traders are positioning cautiously with tight stop-losses around those levels. 🧮🌤️ Weather Outlook: Warm but MoistWeather remains mostly non-threatening through early July. ☀️ Both the Euro and GFS models have backed off earlier rain projections, but 6–10-day forecasts still look hot and moist. CropProphet’s 15-day outlook is friendly for soybeans 🌱 and mixed for corn 🌽, with the Upper Midwest benefiting most. However, corn still shows slight downside vs. USDA estimates due to last week’s crop rating drop.