🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669

📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT

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🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing

With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.

Simon's strategy right now?

🧘 Do nothing.

Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.

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🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120

Oil has been incredibly volatile.

📊 Recent moves

• Early January: ~$60
• Monday spike: ~$120
• Tuesday: briefly below $90
• Current level: ~$91

That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.

The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

🚢 Shipping traffic

• Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day
• Last Wednesday: 0 barrels
• Monday: ~20% of normal

Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.

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⛽ What This Means for South Africa

Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.

💸 Earlier estimates suggested:

• Petrol: +R5.40
• Diesel: +R10

After oil pulled back slightly:

• Petrol increase may be ~R3
• Diesel ~R5

Still extremely painful for the economy.

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📈 Inflation & Interest Rates

Oil shocks ripple through inflation.

📊 Rule of thumb:
Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.

With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:

➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation

For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.

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🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table

Upcoming meetings:

• 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March
• 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March

Previously expected: rate cuts.

Now?

❌ Cuts unlikely

Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.

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⚔️ The War Question

Markets are asking one thing:

How long does this conflict last?

Current signals:

• Iran says it won't capitulate
• US and Israel still active
• UAE attacks have slowed

One possible constraint: missile inventories.

Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.

At some point, stocks run out.

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🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan

The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.

📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels

Possible release:

➡️ 300–400 million barrels

This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.

That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.

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📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios

Best Case

✔ Conflict ends within weeks
✔ Strategic reserves released
✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s

Worst Case

🔥 War escalates
🔥 Shipping disruptions persist
🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200

At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.

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🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call

Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.

📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call

Key features:

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📅 Term: Up to 5 years
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🧠 Index Constituents

The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.

Top holdings include:

• Nvidia
• Palantir
• Snowflake
• AMD
• Broadcom
• SoundHound AI
• Kingsoft Cloud
• BigBear.ai
• DataVault
• Zenitech

Total: 30 companies in the index.

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🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward

South Africa released Q4 GDP.

📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%

Full-year growth:

• 2024: 0.5%
• 2025: 1.1%

Not amazing, but improving.

Forecast for 2026:

📈 1.6% – 1.8%

If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.

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🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…)

The media industry continues consolidating.

Deal overview:

💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery
📦 Price: ~$100 billion

Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.

💵 Result:

• Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee
• Its stock jumped ~15%

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🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal

New twist:

Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.

For South African investors:

Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.

Yes… it's complicated.

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🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea

The concerns:

📉 Traditional media is declining
🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content
🏛️ Politics may influence the deal

Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.

Simon's take:

This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.

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🕒 Market Hours Change

The US switched to daylight savings.

New trading times for South Africa:

📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)

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✈️ Personal Note

Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.

Time flies.

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✔ Key Takeaway

Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.

Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

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