Beef Moving Up, Up, Up

BEEF Let's start with a little good news. On Monday, the border in Arizona was opened for beef cattle. Monday had 716 head presented for inspection. 692 were approved with 24 rejected. Similar numbers on Tuesday with 634 inspected, 588 approved and 46 rejected. Estimated weekly crossing is expected to be about 3,000 head per week. Not enough to make a big change but it is progress. A second crossing will open in New Mexico in 30 days as long as Arizona goes well. The current beef market, however, is high and still moving higher. Weekly beef harvest continues restrained, 523K head last week, up from 517K the week prior.  With one more week running up to Labor Day and the end of the summer season, back to school, vacations over, I do think we will see declines in beef pricing. But we’ve got to get there. Middle meats continue to lead the way higher with ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips all strongly moving higher. Chucks and rounds moving up, too. Grinds are moving higher and we’ll wait to see if additional tariff-free imported lean beef will have any effect on pricing. I’d keep the same advice I’ve been saying for a while now. Stay ahead of your needs simply because inventories are tight, but I would not get too far ahead as I do expect a market correction after Labor Day. POULTRY The recent pattern is done, at least for now. Wings are moving a bit lower, while boneless skinless random breasts and tenders are holding steady for the week. Production continues strong staying ahead of last year which I think should protect us from any surge in chicken moving into fall. On the avian flu beat, four new cases affecting 32K birds. GRAINS It seems war and international unrest is good for grain prices. Corn closed today at $5.31, the highest close in three years. We flirted with $5 a few months ago; now it's here and we’ll see where this will end. Still plenty of corn and new crop coming in so will demand keep these prices up. Soy and wheat both up similarly to corn. I do expect we will see firming prices in oil and flour. PORK Pork bellies continue to decline, today’s close $148, down from last week’s $154. I do expect this to continue to decline heading into fall. Loins, butts, ribs, minimal movement. DAIRY Another mixed week on the CME. Through Thursday’s close, barrel is up 1, block declines again, down 5, and butter up 1. Not much to push these markets higher, plenty of raw material available. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn