Market Trends with Tracy
by Saval Foodservice
In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries abo
Episodes
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No More Dairy Scaries
DAIRY Two weeks of the dairy markets rocking higher, and we’re done with that. Through Thursday’s close, block is holding steady, barrel is up two, and butter took a decline by five. We’ll see what’s next, but we should have a fairly steady market heading into November. BEEF Beef production...
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Avian Flu Season
DAIRY Last week the block market went off, jumping up $.19/# by the CME close on Friday. This week, not letting up with the block up $.20/# through Thursday’s close. Now the barrel is joining block, up $.19/# with today’s close while butter is up a respectable $.04/#. When markets rocket up like...
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Dairy is Rocking Higher
DAIRY Last week just a minor sign this market is about at bottom. This week, dairy is rocking higher. Through Thursday’s close, butter finally gets on track up two, barrel is up three, while block, the driver of natural cheese costs, is up a whopping 16 cents. Exports are helping here and demand…
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Waiting for Beef Relief
BEEF Beef harvest rebounded last week up to 548K head, compared to the prior week of 484K head. Still running well behind last year. With continually larger animals being harvested, we are down on weight by 5.2 percent and down by number of animals harvested by 7.5 percent. While we do see signs…
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Grains in an October Slide
BEEF Last week’s beef harvest was 484K head, seems like a holiday shortened week but it was not. Prior week was 529K head; this is keeping inventories tight. The pattern we’ve seen the last few weeks continues. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving higher still. We are already higher on middle...
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A Little Bit of Everything in Dairy
BEEF We will start with a little good news. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing for live cattle reopened today and so far, no issues. The next border crossing will also be in Columbus, New Mexico; no firm date yet but I’d expect if this opening continues to go well, we should see the…
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Belly Bargain
BEEF The tight inventories coupled with good demand is slowing this market decline. Continuing to be exempt from market declines, middle meats being led higher by ribeyes continue to move higher. Strips and tenderloins following along. Chucks, rounds, and grinds did get the memo and are moving...
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Stubborn Steaks
BEEF We are in a post-Labor Day declining market. The exception is no one seems to have told strip loins and ribeyes. Pretty much everything in the beef complex is moving lower for next week, except ribeyes and strip loins. Demand is holding both items from moving lower. Even tenderloins are…
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Did You Hear the Pork Market Crash?
BEEF Last week imports of live cattle from Mexico resumed from one port of entry in Arizona. That was “paused” on Tuesday this week for equipment malfunctions. Everyone involved emphasized this is not an animal issue but an equipment issue. They expect to reopen in three days. A second crossing…
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Beef Moving Up, Up, Up
BEEF Let's start with a little good news. On Monday, the border in Arizona was opened for beef cattle. Monday had 716 head presented for inspection. 692 were approved with 24 rejected. Similar numbers on Tuesday with 634 inspected, 588 approved and 46 rejected. Estimated weekly crossing is…
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A Pricey Ride to Labor Day
BEEF This beef market is pushing higher still. I’m still expecting a market correction after Labor Day, but man, getting to Labor Day is not going to be cheap. Beef harvest continues in the same quantities we’ve seen for months, 517K head last week, 509K the week prior keeps beef inventories…
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The Block is Hot
BEEF: Last week’s harvest was 59K head. I thought the prior week of 512K was low, so let's take another step down, with packers keeping pressure on availability with less product available. This puts our year-to-date output down 8.1%. A pretty sizeable decline. They seem to be pretty effective…
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Hopeful Beef Outlook
BEEF: I’m going to start with the weekly beef harvest. Last week’s total was 512K head; the prior week was 528K head. I don’t recall this small a weekly harvest on a non-holiday week. Packers will continue to try and tighten availability to support pricing. They are having some success as Ribeyes...
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Good News in Beef
BEEF Let’s start with some really good news. For the first time since 2018 the US cattle herd increased by 200K head to 94.2 million head, this however is not the start of beef herd building we’ve been looking for. The increases are in dairy cows, the beef herd actually declined 200K head to 28.5...
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Chicken is the New Beef
BEEF The beef market is continuing lower this week though I do see some slowing in the declines. Production continues restrained with 525K harvested last week, down from 529k the week prior. We may see even lower production numbers this week and moving into August to try and bolster some of price...
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The Pork Belly Race is On
BEEF The beef market continues its summer pull back. Overall market tone is moving lower. I expect we will see this through the end of the month; come August we’ll be starting to look at fall demand. Unbelievable, already talking about fall. Last week’s harvest was 529K head, up from the holiday...
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Soy in Action
BEEF As expected, beef pricing for middle meats is moving lower. Strips, ribeyes and tenderloins all coming off a bit from pre-holiday highs. I expect we will see this continue right to the end of the month. Grinds on the other hand are keeping prices high and will be moving higher. Ground beef…
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The Summer of the Pork Belly
BEEF Beef production last week was 537K head, up from 526K the week prior. We are still in that zone of keeping supplies tight to keep pricing up. The animals that are processed have been in the feed lots longer, growing larger; current cattle are running almost 50 pounds heavier than this week...
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The Dog Days of Summer
BEEF We hit Independence Day next weekend and the start of the “dog days of summer." Once we get clear of the holiday I do expect we will see a market reset, especially on middle meats. I’m not looking for a crash, but I do expect we will see a steady decline over the month of July possibly right...
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The Need for Beef
BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d...
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Pressure on the Herd
BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the...
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Stay Ahead of Your Needs
BEEF I’ve been saying for weeks to stay ahead of your needs, and I’m going to reiterate, stay ahead of your needs, as demand does seem to be ticking up a bit. Weekly harvest is not moving up to help meet that demand. Last week’s harvest was 528K head, down from the prior week’s 535K head. While...
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Summer Grilling Had Me a Blast
BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K...
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Pennies Up, Pennies Down
BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current...
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Bellies Off to the Races
Thanks for joining me today, let's look at a few markets heading into Mother’s Day weekend. Let's start as usual with beef. We’ve had a couple weeks of relatively stable pricing, and I think we’ve got another week, maybe two before summer fun and demand start pushing prices up. Beef harvest last...
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Bellies Drop while Beef Corrects
Try to say "Avian Flu Front" five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl. The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week. Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower. Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week.…
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Tentative Good News for Beef
We are well into spring now and some things are shaking in the beef market. First good news, though the strike is not settled, the JBS workers are returning to work while negotiations continue. Good news, beef harvest increased to 533K still running about 10% behind last year, supplies remain…
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An Interesting Summer For Beef
Beef production continues to keep inventories tight and prices pushing higher. Beef harvest last week was 520K head, up a bit from the 503K the week prior but still not enough to fill the demand. Middle meats, those strips loins, tenderloins and ribeyes continue to push higher every week. Thin...
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An Expensive Cinco De Mayo
Beef demand is not backing down, consumer demand for protein continues to increase even as our beef industry continues to contract. No doubt aided by the JBS strike, beef production was only 508K head last week and I expect we will see similar numbers for this week. The market is tight, there is...
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Beef Continues to Climb
BEEF: I've been saying for a few weeks now it would not be a bad idea to keep well ahead of your needs. I’m doubling down on this as the reduced production we’ve seen this year is impacting product availability and pricing. Inventories will be tighter still with reduced production and increasing...
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Butter Takes Off
Beef production continues restrained to keep prices up and packer losses as small as possible. 516K head produced last week, same as the previous week. Heading into spring this is keeping the beef supply tight and prices supported. We have the smallest beef herd since 1951 when there were half as...
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Under Spring Pressure
Beef is tight. Bellies are climbing. Birds are under watch. The seasonal shift may bring more than warmer weather. BEEF: Production is down 10% YTD, with last week at just 516K head. The smallest herd in 75 years keeps supply tight as spring demand builds. Strips and ribeyes look ready to lead a...
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Fowl Play
Production is steady. Prices dipped. But nearly 5 million birds are gone – and migration season is just getting started. BEEF: Harvest rose to 541K head, but we’re still running well behind last year. Middle meats are inching higher, especially strips, while chucks soften and grinds slip again…
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Cupid's Market Shuffle 💘
Valentine’s Day is here, and while roses get the spotlight, the real story is in the markets. Ribeyes and tenderloins are holding steady, strips keep climbing, pork bellies are inching higher, and poultry hasn’t lost its upward momentum. Add in a little lift from soy and a steady dairy tone, and...
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Markets on the Move
From tightening beef supplies and climbing poultry prices to the first real lift in pork bellies and a dairy market finding its footing, this week feels like a shift. Nothing is running away yet, but momentum is building, and the next few weeks could look very different. BEEF: Tight production is...
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The Valentine’s Setup ❤️
Markets are slowly building momentum as Valentine’s Day demand begins to take shape. Beef inches higher, chicken keeps climbing, pork waits for its next move, dairy tests a rally, and grains remain quiet. The coming weeks will show whether this momentum sticks — or stalls. BEEF: Production pulled...
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The Early Thaw
Winter’s grip on the markets is starting to loosen. Beef has turned higher sooner than expected, chicken keeps climbing, pork begins its spring setup, dairy shows signs of life, and grains remain frozen in place. This early shift may be subtle — but it could shape the market mood for the weeks...
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The January Tug-of-War ↔️
January is doing what it does best – pulling markets in opposite directions. Beef splits between falling middle meats and rising end cuts, chicken prices wake up, pork stays a value, grains soften, and dairy pushes into rare territory. These early-year moves may look quiet, but they’re setting up...
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The New Year Split
The calendar flipped, and the markets followed. Beef is splitting seasonally, chicken is finally waking up, pork remains a value with signs of strength, grains won’t budge, and dairy keeps testing new lows. This is the quiet part of the year where small shifts now can mean big moves later. BEEF:...
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The Two-Week Turn
The holiday push is wrapping up, and the markets are starting to show their hand. Beef is splitting in two directions, poultry feels steady but uneasy, pork stays a value, grains won’t budge, and dairy may finally be finding a floor. With January right around the corner, the next two weeks could...
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The Holiday Push
Holiday demand reminded the markets who’s in charge — beef hit rare production levels while premium cuts held firm. As poultry and grains wait it out, pork stays a value and dairy keeps sliding into bargain territory. With the calendar about to flip, the real question is what holds… and what...
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Have Yourself a Pricey Little Ribeye 💰🥩
Middle meats are the gift that keeps getting pricier, and buyers are wondering whether the peak is finally here. Meanwhile, poultry stays affordable, pork remains a value, and dairy drops to holiday-baking lows — making this week’s markets as mixed as a stocking full of surprises. BEEF: Holiday...
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Gravy Train or Pain?
As we head into Thanksgiving, the markets are serving up a mixed plate — some items are easing, others are heating up, and a few might burn your budget. Whether it’s a gravy train or a little holiday pain depends on the protein. Let’s dig in and see what’s really simmering this week. BEEF: Middle...
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Roasts Rising, Butter Sliding
Markets are shifting as the holidays approach — beef heats up with middle meats climbing, chicken stays steady, and pork holds its value. Grains stay quiet, and dairy continues to slide with butter finally leveling off. The big question: is this the start of the holiday run-up, or just the calm...
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Stocking Up & Selling Off
As the holidays close in, markets are showing their seasonal split — beef buyers are getting bold while poultry prices cool and dairy keeps sliding. With soy stirring and pork settling, everyone’s stocking up for the end-of-year rush… but which way will prices break when the wrapping paper comes...
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Finding the Floor
Markets are starting to settle after weeks of decline. Beef finds its bottom, chicken holds steady, pork pops, and dairy and grains edge higher. The big question — is this the foundation for a rebound, or just a pause before the next dip? BEEF: After weeks of decline, the market has found its...
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We Can't Believe It's Pandemic Butter Pricing
Still no government reports on markets, but we're piecing a few things together to get a good feel of what's happening. Butter is now trading at levels we’ve not seen since the pandemic five years ago. I don’t think there is much more downside to this butter market, but lets see where it goes. I…
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Chicken Hits Two Year Low 📉
Chicken prices have hit their lowest level in two years, making it the week’s biggest story. Beef’s slowdown continues, pork holds steady, and dairy drifts lower — but poultry steals the spotlight as the market’s best deal. BEEF: Prices are still drifting lower, though the declines are slowing....
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The Waiting Game
Markets have slowed to a crawl, with beef, chicken, and pork all easing while buyers wait for a clear direction. Grains stay quiet, and dairy can’t decide which way to move. It’s a week of watching, waiting, and wondering what’s next. BEEF: The market keeps trending lower as buyers wait for the...
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Relief or Rally ❓🥩🧈
This week the markets send mixed signals – beef prices slide but middle meats refuse to budge, chicken keeps dropping while avian flu stirs again, and pork bellies dip as loins hold value. Grains stay calm and dairy finally bounces after weeks of decline. Is this the start of real relief, or just...
About this show
In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates.
Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies.
We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries abo
Hosted by
Saval Foodservice