Białoruski dylemat Rosji. Łukaszenka nie pomaga

from NEW · host Aleksander Papko, Igor Gretskiy, Daria Zviagina, Paweł Łatuszka, Edward Lucas, Piotr Rudkouski, Jarosław Kociszewski, John Beauchamp, Hanna Lubakowa

Białoruskie przebudzenie postawiło Rosję w trudnej sytuacji. Kreml widzi, że Aleksandr Łukaszenka stracił legitymację, ale nie chce pozwolić na zwycięstwo rewolucji i przepędzenie prezydenta z kraju. To byłby niebezpieczny przykład dla Rosjan.Dlatego Moskwa popiera reżim, choć bardziej w deklaracjach niż w rzeczywistości. Nie może doprowadzić do sytuacji, w której Łukaszenka będzie postrzegany jako satrapa siedzący na rosyjskich bagnetach. To mogłoby zrazić Białorusinów i jednoznacznie popchnąć ku Zachodowi. Rosja przede wszystkim nie chce powtórki scenariusza ukraińskiego i utraty wpływów. Osoba Aleksandra Łukaszenki ma tu znaczenie drugorzędne.Projekt dofinansowany przez Fundację Solidarności Międzynarodowej w ramach polskiej współpracy rozwojowej Ministerstwa Spraw Zagranicznych RP.Publikacja wyraża wyłącznie poglądy autora i nie może być utożsamiana z oficjalnym stanowiskiem Fundacji Solidarności Międzynarodowej ani Ministerstwa Spraw Zagranicznych RP.

What this episode covers

Protesty na Białorusi nie są wymierzone w Rosję, lecz to może się zmienić. Moskwa widzi toksyczność Łukaszenki, ale nie chce stracić wpływów. Nie może przy tym zrazić do siebie Białorusinów, choć sukces ich rewolucji może być przykładem dla Rosjan.

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Białoruski dylemat Rosji. Łukaszenka nie pomaga

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This episode was published on November 21, 2020.

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