Biofuel Lobbies BEG for Year-Round E15 Ethanol - Silver Bullet for Corn Market??

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Ethanol & E15 PushThe Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum.The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes.Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term:Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offsConsumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy itProduction capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacityAn E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars.🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCAPresident Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1.Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below.🥩 Beef Prices Hit New RecordsGround beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%.Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below.🌱 Soybean Flash SalesUSDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday:168,000 mt to China152,404 mt to MexicoBoth are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.📊 Inflation UpdateThe December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022.Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below.🌎 Largest US LandownerThe owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres.Other top landowners include:Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acresJohn Malone: ~2.2 million acresTed Turner: ~2.0 million acresJeff Bezos: ~462,000 acresBill Gates: ~275,000 acres