Black Eye

In the first half, we examine the (rumored) literal fisticuffs in D.C., and the implications of the proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" on taxes, spending, the deficit, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss the timing of tax cuts versus spending cuts, especially in light of the employment data we have seen since 2022, wherein: Private sector job growth -> a little over 1% cumulatively. Public sector job growth -> over 7% cumulatively. In the second half, we discuss the market's rapid rebound from its April nadir and juxtapose returns (and valuations) for different parts of the equity market. Is it finally time for diversification to help after a 15-year run for the U.S.? U.S. large caps +3% YTD U.S. small caps -2% YTD Developed non-U.S. +17% YTD Emerging markets +11% YTD While the collapse in the volatility index and the huge rally from the lows normally portend further gains, valuations for the S&P 500 are historically high on any number of measures. While the so-called Magnificent Seven are more elevated, the other 493 are also expensive, and have grown earnings a lot more slowly than the tech titans. Contrary to our forecast entering 2025, fewer than one in three stocks are outperforming this year, putting a premium on stock selection. While multiples are high, we think active managers willing to go further afield can find values. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.