PODCAST · business
Tea and Crumpets
by Will Brown and Adam Eagleston
Tea and Crumpets is Formidable Asset Management's biweekly podcast that features Formidable's Managing Partner and CEO, Will Brown, and Chief Investment Officer, Adam Eagleston, CFA, talking directly about current events in relation to their expertise and business in a conversational manner.
Episodes
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Not Between Two Ferns
On the surface, markets still look remarkably durable. Underneath, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston see a much more complicated picture. In Episode 107 of Tea & Crumpets, they start with the forces keeping interest rates elevated, including persistent inflation, heavy government borrowing, rising…
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Actual Tea & Crumpets
For the first time, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston are actually sharing the same room, complete with real tea, real crumpets, and plenty to unpack. Against a backdrop of continued geopolitical uncertainty, they start with the energy markets, where disruptions to shipping, refining capacity, and...
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Why Don't You Just Tell Me; or, the Last Labor Day | Episode 105
In this episode of Tea & Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston break down a market that continues to send conflicting signals. They examine rising oil and commodity prices, renewed inflation concerns, climbing bond yields, government debt, and growing intervention in markets that are becoming...
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Historical Accuracies
After a summer hiatus, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston return to examine a market that appears to be reaching an important inflection point. They discuss the Federal Reserve's increasingly difficult balancing act as inflation remains stubbornly above target, government debt and interest payments...
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Summer Kickoff
Summer is officially underway, and Will Brown and Adam Eagleston waste no time diving into the headlines shaping markets, energy, and investor sentiment. Against the backdrop of global soccer fever, the duo examines the recently announced Iran-related memorandum of understanding and what it could...
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Epic Furry
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a market that appears remarkably calm on the surface while a growing list of geopolitical and economic risks continues to build beneath it. From escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global energy…
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100th Episode Spectacular, or Irrationally Optimistic (Part 1)
In the 100th episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston celebrate the podcast's century mark by welcoming returning guest Kalee Kreider for a timely and expansive discussion on geopolitics, inflation, energy markets, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and…
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100th Episode Spectacular, or Irrationally Optimistic (Part 2)
In Part 2 of this special 100th episode celebration of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston continue their wide-ranging conversation with returning guest Kalee Kreider, diving deeper into the political, economic, and cultural consequences of the current geopolitical and financial...
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Houthis and the Blowfish
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of…
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We Interrupt This Podcast…
In episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper...
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Oil, Private Credit, and A.I.
In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock…
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Under the Surface
After a brief hiatus (courtesy of a historic Southern ice storm), Adam and Will return to find an index-level market that looks deceptively calm—roughly flat since their last episode—while significant damage has been done beneath the surface to individual stocks. The disconnect between index...
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Happy New Year
We look at the eventful start to 2026 and try to put some context around potential market impacts. Geopolitically, we saw the renewed vigor of the Monroe Doctrine in full force with U.S. action against Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Whether stemming the flow of drugs or increasing the supply of oil...
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Christmas Present
We take a detour into the Dickensian in evaluating the state of the economy. First, the recent inflation print, which showed a significant decline in the level of price increases, was a fiction worthy of Dickens, with the majority of the data simply made up as a result of the government shutdown....
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Ish
After Thanksgiving, we take a look at poultry, especially how dove-ish the Fed is now expected to be, a sharp reversal from a few weeks ago. We also discuss the odds-on favorite for the next Fed chair and how his political leanings may (or may not) influence which direction the Fed takes. Recent...
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I Have Two Gavels. One for Each of You.
After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with...
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Red October?
In this episode, we talk a pay homage to Will's mentor by focusing on value and discipline, two things very much out of favor in the market at present. It is easy to see why as in the wake of five consecutive months of market gains, statistically the odds favor further appreciation. Moreover…
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Hot Pot Paranoia
In this episode, we talk a lot about the job market, which is anything but hot, and its implications for the Fed, which is under pressure. All of the below tend to support President Trump's criticism of Powell being "too late": weakening job growth this summer (only +22k jobs in August, mostly in...
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The Gilded Age
In this episode, Will and Adam examine former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich's comments comparing today to the Gilded Age. We acknowledge there are several similarities, including increasing wealth disparity, the emergence of disruptive technology, and widespread commingling of government with...
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Demise of the Switchboard Operator
In this episode, we provide a recap on earnings so far in Q2, which, so far, have been good enough for the market to remain near all-time highs. We also delve a little deeper into some of the megacap earnings, especially as it relates to whether accounting rules are optically improving earnings...
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Dear Jerome
In the first half, we look at the OBBBA, and what its passage may mean for investors, as well as for the government's balance sheet. Debt from baseline projection of 154% of GDP to upwards of 200% of GDP with the OBBBA. Deficits from around 6% of GDP to over 7% with the OBBBA. Despite the...
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Black Eye
In the first half, we examine the (rumored) literal fisticuffs in D.C., and the implications of the proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" on taxes, spending, the deficit, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss the timing of tax cuts versus spending cuts, especially in light of the employment data we...
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The Swamp Always Wins
In this episode, we have a no-holds-barred conversation featuring Kalee Kreider, a seasoned political strategist and expert in climate policy. Together, we dig into the uncomfortable truths about markets, politics, and the economic pressures facing everyday Americans. From election forecasts and...
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Face Off
In the first half, we discuss the showdown between the U.S. and China on tariffs. While the headlines have been stolen by who is calling whom first, we look into the effect the tariffs are already having on container ship volumes, and what implications that has for the rest of the supply chain…
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Winging It
In the first half, we discuss Liberation Day, the violent reaction of, initially, the stock market and, subsequently, the bond market. In terms of the bond market, we look at the frantic trading from last week that ultimately forced the administration to announce a 90-day pause on most tariffs.…
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Liberation Day
In the first half, we discuss the imminent arrival of "Liberation Day", and why uncertainty over tariffs is causing consternation to consumer, business, and investor confidence. We look at the most recent inflation data from the government and examine the widely divergent inflation expectations...
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Canadian, Judge, and Jury
In the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in…
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The Rest is Geography
With headlines versus earnings moving markets, we look at the perceptions and realities influencing investors (and speculators). In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity…
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Trump Tariff Tourette's Threats
With tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada…
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I Can Hear You Clowns
After a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the...
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Defiling Gravity
We take a wicked look upward, where both unidentified drones and market valuations reside. We also discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, investor sentiment, and the outlook for corporate margins (and employment) as AI gains greater adoption. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown…
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Gamma Claus is Coming to Town
We discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump's win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and...
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Undecided Boaters
This week, Will and Adam discuss how markets typically respond to the election cycle, and the importance of staying committed to the long-term view when it comes to investing. We also do a deep, some may say submarine, dive on the phenomenon causing some of the extreme weather we are seeing, and...
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Not Chicken Anymore
We recap the historically strong year-to-date performance of equities and compare Q3 versus the first half of the year. We also delve into the potential market implications of the upcoming presidential elections as well as the ongoing (and escalating) conflict in the Middle East. Learn more about...
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Podcast or podcats?
Special guest Kalee Kreider joins us to discuss the recent presidential debate, its impact on the November election, and all things political. We also explore the impact of broad trends like inflation and AI on the election, the economy, and markets. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management,...
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We Need These Jobs
Will and Adam discuss the large downward revision in job creation and analyze its causes and implications. With the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, they review its current stance on interest rates versus market expectations, as well as the divergent paths the market has historically taken around…
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Hiatus Over
Will and Adam return to provide insight on recent market tumult. We look at the causes (recession concerns, Japanese bank policy) and the effects (sharp decline, quick rebound, spike in volatility). We compare what is normal about today's environment versus the anomalies that cause us some…
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Happy Birthday
We wish Formidable a happy 11th birthday, though the more eccentric among us may say "get well soon", instead. Regardless, we look back on our approach to college planning and the merits of trade schools in the era of AI. We also examine AI's broader implications for inflation, wages, and stocks,...
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Saul Grippo
Will and Adam review the new Bearcats flavored Grippo chips, and compare them to the Fed's approach on inflation. We take a look at what the lack of movement in oil prices is telling us about inflation and the economy, and how higher interest rates are (or, more accurately, are not) constricting...
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There's No Way Wainscott Will Approve This Title
We discuss the fluid situation in the Middle East, its impact on oil, and, ultimately, its importance as a key stumbling block on the Fed's path to 2% inflation. The changing expectations regarding Fed rate cuts and how those should (theoretically) affect valuations for stocks are also key…
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Top Men
Will and Adam discuss the potential for broader equity market participation, as well as the strange dynamics affecting the smaller cap indices. We also deconstruct the latest Fed minutes, and what the Fed's changing stance on inflation may mean for interest rates, stocks, risk, and housing....
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Mugabe Shack
In episode 66, Will and Adam discuss the Fed's shifting stance on its inflation target and the implications for consumers and markets. We also examine the diverging fortunes of the Magnificent Seven and compare today's market conditions with those of the early 2022 peak as well as the 2000 peak....
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I Choo-Choo-Choose You
We welcome back special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. With November fast approaching, we get her take on the candidates, what states might determine the outcome, and why "double haters" may be the deciding factor. We...
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Top Hats and Hash Browns
In episode 64, Will and Adam discuss the winnowing of the Magnificent Seven to somewhere between three and four, and the exorbitant valuations on the shrinking number of winners. We also look at the conundrum faced by businesses dealing with pushback from consumers on rising prices while at the...
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Nvidiots
Will and Adam return from a hiatus with the S&P 500 at an all-time high. They recap what drove returns in 2023 (index flows, zero-day options, the Magnificent Seven) and what expectations are baked into valuations at current levels (above-average earnings growth and six Fed rate cuts). They also...
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Passive Observer
We revisit the risks associated with passive investing as the Magnificent Seven stocks become even more unmoored from the rest of the S&P 500. We also analyze the likelihood of the Fed engineering a soft landing, why the market may have celebrated a win on inflation too early, and how we are…
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Unionized Baristas
We talk about the ongoing shift in labor market dynamics and its implications for inflation going forward, which could be "higher-er for longer-er". The market's recent rebound, fueled by hopes of a soft landing and a bounce in the most shorted stocks, is also discussed. We also look at...
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Backwards Pants
Will and Adam provide their perspective on the market impact of events in Israel and Gaza, which come at a perilous time from a market perspective with yields reaching psychologically important levels. We also discuss how flows into passive funds have had an outsized impact on the so-called...
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One-person Riot
In the midst of typical seasonal weakness, we examine the causes for the stock market's recent volatility, as well as the unprecedented moves in the bond market. We also look at oil's ability to help the economy to a Goldilocks scenario, how labor unrest is affecting inflation and consumer...
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Octoberfest
After enjoying the festivities, including a fantastic caricature, we delve into the underappreciated risks associated with both zero-day options and put writing, given the launch of a new ETF that combines the two. We examine the market's recent reaction to CPI data and the potential for…
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Tea and Crumpets is Formidable Asset Management's biweekly podcast that features Formidable's Managing Partner and CEO, Will Brown, and Chief Investment Officer, Adam Eagleston, CFA, talking directly about current events in relation to their expertise and business in a conversational manner.
HOSTED BY
Will Brown and Adam Eagleston
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Tea and Crumpets have?
Tea and Crumpets currently has 107 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Tea and Crumpets about?
Tea and Crumpets is Formidable Asset Management's biweekly podcast that features Formidable's Managing Partner and CEO, Will Brown, and Chief Investment Officer, Adam Eagleston, CFA, talking directly about current events in relation to their expertise and business in a conversational manner.
How often does Tea and Crumpets release new episodes?
Tea and Crumpets publishes regularly with 107 episodes available. Check the episode list for the typical release schedule.
Where can I listen to Tea and Crumpets?
You can listen to Tea and Crumpets on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Tea and Crumpets?
Tea and Crumpets is created and hosted by Will Brown and Adam Eagleston.
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