Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 3rd 2025 – Survived October? Back to full on Complacency…

Survived October? Back to full on Complacency… “The real work is like rugby. Everything is connected. Everyplay has consequences.” Yet again I was wrong and overly bearish. Markets survived October with barely a shrug. Everything is apparently fine and dandy.. nothing to worry about? Complacency and belief abound. We have been here before…. And what does Rugby tell us about markets?Before I launch into markets… I have to step back and ask: whatdoes Rugby have to teach us about markets and the world? It’s all about approach… Rugby is a metaphor for life. It is fast, it is confusing, everyaction has consequences, and the best team does not always win. It’s about strategic awareness: seizing opportunities and turning them into points, while stopping the opposition from doing the same. You need critical game skills and tacticalprowess. The best teams excel by being motivated, being able to read the game laterally, and having the hard physical skills to triumph. That is why everyone fears the Kiwis and Irish. England should dominate European rugby with the biggest player pool but they don’t think much outside their drills and game-plan and repeatedly get beaten by smaller more passionate nations who are willing to think outside the proverbial box! Rugby is not a bad model for success.Rugby and American Football are not alike in any way. TheAmerican game is stop-start, breaking down the opportunities into a series of stage-managed scripted specialist plays that remove much of the jeopardy and the risks of how fluid play offers goes awry.  I found myself wondering what Rugby, American Football andthe current markets tell us, and the different national approaches. I was thinking how the scale of tech infrastructure spending in AI is a bit like one of these specialised team moments in American football… expensive, straight out the deck, but formulaic rather than innovative and lateral? Does doing things by the “play-book” mean we’re missing the fleeting real opportunities?