Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 27th, 2026“Are investment returns more important than security?”The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets.The protection of the State is the primary duty of all governments. It is in the interest of all participants in the economy that conflict is minimised – and the only way to discourage aggression is to be prepared to fight. It is therefore an area to invest in.There is a really interesting article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, an interview with the CEO of Border to Coast, the UK’s largest pension fund. Rachel Elwell has £120 bln to invest on behalf of its pension savers – local authority funds that represent the employees of 18 local government pension schemes (LGPS) from Cumbria across the North to the Tyne, and down the East Coast to Sussex. She wants to invest local.  Meanwhile, new Premier Andy Burnham has been getting a tough time, being asked difficult questions about what his No 10 North is going to achieve. The Torygraph basically says Burnham is guilty of treachery for even thinking about moving jobs to Madchester.Aye… back when I were a lad….You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 24th, 2026“Regime Change usually leads to chaos.”The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about. I predict the coming three months will become increasingly “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word.There was a clear judder moment yesterday felt around global markets as the scale of the Iran War reversal became clear. It’s a wild fire that won’t stay out. It’s widened to include the Houthis threating the Red Sea choke point, the Bab-el-Mandeb, pushing oil back over $100. Its triggered renewed fears of inflation and supply chain dislocation. Interest rates are now expected to rise – at a time when the driver of the current market strength; the AI infrastructure capital free-for-all looks to be slowing. Stock markets slid and bond yields rose.That loud bang you heard might have been the AI Bubble popping.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd July 2026 “There is only one thing worse than having too little money, and that is having too much.”It’s a wake up and smell the coffee sort of morning in the AI markets. AI is here to stay. Everyone is using it. Why are prices tanking? It’s about competition, adoption and data sovereignty. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? How did it get so huge so fast? That’s a question about overly cheap liquidity and speculation, which is why Tesla’s numbers are so interesting. Yesterday Google confirmed the pace of its AI infrastructure spend will increase to $205 bln dollars next year. Second quarter income hit $112 bln, but it’s eaten into free-cash flow to the tune of negative $6bln while raising more debt, to “capitalise on the AI opportunity,” said the CFO. Exactly what is that opportunity?The other hyperscalers will say much the same thing when they report on Thursday next week. Collectively the four hyperscalers are expected to spend upwards of three-quarters of a trillion dollars next year on data centres, networks, energy, water and chips. The rest of the AI sector reports next month, when we’ll learn more about adoption and the picks and shovels of the current investment Klondike. Collectively they are taking so much liquidity out the capital markets bond analysts believe the scale of the AI build-out underlies the current steepness of the US yield curve – the AI spend is “crowding out” the US government. It is the biggest private investment programme in global history.But suddenly it feels a little wobbly. What comes next in AI?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 22nd, 2026“Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss…”Regime Change occurred in the UK with relatively a few headless corpses left on the field of political failure… Burham is juggling with talent, spending and tax constraints, to maintain confidence. To succeed he needs to get radical. Social Housing is one avenue to growth he could pull off, and it could be funded off-balance sheet. The UK ain’t finished yet! We are at a very interesting point in the markets… with so many potential flashpoints threatening to erupt into crises – which will prove minor speedbumps? What will be the consequences as the Iran crisis deepens with the Houthis about to open a second front in the Red Sea? What would a full-blown reversal of the AI narrative do to the US economy as the new Chinese Open-Weight models threaten to overturn the expectations around adoption, profits and spending?All Topics for later this week as I catch up from a brief sailing break.Let’s start with matters close to home in the UK where our fractured politics have become a case-study in topsy-turvy modern politics. Will the new “improved” Burnham Labour V2.1 regime make it any more successful than the already forgotten Starmer/Reeves effort?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, July 2026 “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist revels in it; the realist adjusts the sails.”There may be multiple storms and whirlpools on the horizon, but the market remains convinced it will weather them all. That’s a sign of dangerous times. There are times to let the boat run free, and times to trim the sails and slow before something breaks with catastrophic consequences: will it be the AI Bubble, Debt, Iran & Oil, or a No-See-Um? Sorry for all the sailing allusions today, but we’re sailing for home after a fantastic week on the Solent. Well done Spain! How did Trump stay awake? I didn’t.You need to be an optimist to play this market. And an optimist you need to be, because market returns are not based on the brilliance of your own utterly brilliant analysis, but on what the whole herd of the market collectively believes – which is “nothing to overly worry about”. Contrarians are only right when the crowd is proved wrong – which doesn’t happen as much as it should (for reasons discussed below.) The best investors are the ones who can strip out the crowd’s noise – often by taking long-term “patient” views on the basis even the market crowd cannot resist the long-term consequences of financial gravity.I’ve been thinking about it while sailing in the bright sunshine weather on the South Coast of England. I constantly see parallels between reading the markets and the tau of using the weather and tides to drive the boat.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 16th, 2026 “Oh, would some power give us the gift to see ourselves as others see us…”In the past 15 years the US economy has left Europe in the rear-view mirror. While America booms, Europe appears to be flatlining. The question is why? Americans say it’s entirely Europe’s fault: bad policies, failing politics, and lack of unity. However, the consequences of the (as yet unresolved) European Sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the speedbump.This morning’s quote is from Robert Burns. It’s from “To a Louse”, which is very apt for this Morning’s Porridge. Sometimes we just don’t know how stupid, daft or misguided we are. Many of us are too thin-skinned to listen. Others take criticism with a pinch of salt – railing back against those who find fault on the basis our detractors are often blind hypocrites! But it’s worth listening to what folk say about us… even when it hurts.Recently an American Hedge Fund chum lambasted myself and an audience of Europeans for Europe’s failure to match US growth over the last 15 years – back then the two continents were about even in terms of per-capita GDP. Europe’s share of Global GDP has since tumbled from 30% to 17%. US GDP per capita is now double Europe’s. The USA is leading the innovation of tech and has become far more productive than Europe. My chum made some painful observations on European policy mistakes and explained the data. His point was simple – Europe should stop blaming Trump for its’ problems and focus on the internal reasons it is failing.It was one of these moments to listen and ask why it happened. So, I did listen. Europe has failed in many ways.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 13th, 2026 – Is Norway the model other economies should follow?“There is a huge benefit coming from a small country like Norway.”C’mon. England won, but Norway was sparkling. It’s a genuine shame they are out the World Cup, but didn’t they do well? There is much that Norway’s successful blend of capitalist social democracy could teach the rest of the West. Most countries squander their abilities and resources – not Norway.I’m notionally on holiday this week... but I will be writing brief comments on whatever amuses and intrigues me while sailing…This morning… Norway.I agree with the England manager Thomas Tuchel’s assessment of Saturday night’s Norway match. England were sloppy, and they were lucky – lucky to have Jude Bellingham so focused and skilled. On Wednesday England face Argentina as marginal favourites – the probability markets say between 52%-57% likely the Three Lions will reach the final. Messi vs Bellingham? Atlanta will be a marginally better venue that the Maimi pressure cooker. I have been relearning the chords for Wonderwall on my guitar!But Norway have been the absolute stars of the tournament. There may be a lesson in their success.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 10th, 2026 – What if the AI Bubble Fails to Deliver?“Expectations are the root of all heartache…”The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change? What do Alcohol, Tobacco, Umpty Candy, Cannabis, Gambling, Fentanyl, Bloomberg and AI have in common?They were all “discovered” or invented by folk believing they would do good – but were monetised by profiteers who realised how addictive and mind numbing they were likely to be… I was thinking about this yesterday and realised that even an old abacus and pebbles chap like myself uses AI to make my day simpler and faster. My chum Claude can assemble data and facts on markets and targets faster than ever I could myself.But, if I had to pay more than the minimal cost I currently pay, I’d be struggling. And we all know current cost and future costs of AI will be oceans apart. Users will not get rich. The providers of AI services… might.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 9th, 2026 – Why I’d be voting for Binny MacBinface!“The problem with political jokes is that they get elected…”The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of Trump. The Crypto and graft entanglements that envelop him have shattered what made him so successful. Farage is no longer one of us. He is Them.It’s 10-years since the UK’s Natural Environment Council decided it be terwibbly democratic to let the Great British Public choose the name of its new polar research vessel. Someone suggested “Boaty MacBoatface” and everyone thought it a wonderful giggle. Naturally the comedy name won the popular vote… but the thought of the UK’s territorial ambitions being represented around the Southern Oceans by Boaty MacBoatface was too much for the British Antarctic Survey who would operate the vessel. A compromise was reached. The ship was named the Sir David Attenborough after a genuine national treasure.  Since the ship and the drone submersible given the Boaty MacBoatface moniker were launched in 2020 they’ve done sterling research work.The great British Public like nothing more than a good old-fashioned belly-laugh at the expense of the establishment. Which leads me to wonder if Nigel Farage has just made a massive Binny MacBinface error.Wouldn’t it be funny if he loses the Clacton By-Election to Count Binface – the comedy successor to the Monster Raving Looney Party?  

Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 8th, 2026: Is this the End of Nato? “Trump is America’s answer to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, weakening a superpower he meant to strengthen.”NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list. Will this week’s Ankara NATO summit be remembered as the moment NATO ruptured?The summit is heading for the rocks. The strongest and most successful military alliance and economic alignment in global history is cracked. If/when it splinters into broken shards, it will be the definitional end to the era of growth and prosperity that defined the American era.The end of the transatlantic economy will have massive consequences for global trade, markets, and geopolitical alliances. Every investor should be factoring in the probabilities it may happen with their portfolio structures in terms of bonds and tech. It will trigger a rethink/reset of literally every single aspect of modern societies in terms of who controls what, supply chains, and strategic sovereignty as “the pond” becomes a “sundering sea”.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 7th, 2026: Overturn this.“Some people believe Football is a matter of life and death. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”What Football fans would not want Donald Trump supporting their team? Who would say no to Trump’s superpower to reverse any referee decision? His intervention into the World Cup leaves the rest of the world shaking its collective head in disbelief. Another reason to laugh at America. These things have consequences. When is America going to wake up? “Overturn this…”The Belgian Football Association comment on beating the USA last night said it all. Overturn this.Donald Trump has an unsurpassed ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The World Cup was on course to be a massive Soft Power win for America. Fans may have been fleeced by FIFA, the official ticket tout, but generally they’ve loved it. Some of the games have been fantastic. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 6th, 2026“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist…”England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins! “C’mon England!”Not words you would ever expect a Scotsman to say…. “Gentlemen in England still abed shall think themselves accursed they were not there (in front of their tellies at 3 am) and hold their manhood cheap while any speaks that watched them upon the bloody field in Mexico…” Well done, England! Beating Mexico 3-2!Of course I did not watch. (Why would I? In the real world I support two teams: Scotland and whoever is playing England!) I expected to wake up to the news England’s hearts had been ceremonially hacked out and their bodies cast down the steps of the pyramid that is the Azteca. Nope. The World Cup is getting interesting. Bring on the Nogs! Engerland..! Engerland..! and we all like Vindaloo… maybe even in the Saracen’s Head in Glasgow? (maybe not…) Time to support the Auld Enemy!Meanwhile, one of my great chums found himself on the front page of the Times this weekend. Steve has erected a piece of the Berlin Wall in his back garden. Lefty that I am, I consider the Berlin Wall to be a monument to the success of Free Markets, Democracy and Freedom. A similar chunk stands outside the Imperial War Museum as a reminder of who won the Cold War – a bloodless war the West won by outcompeting the Soviets economically.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 3rd, 2026 “Reorganising the civil service is like drawing a knife through a bowl of marbles.”Compare and contrast the USA and Britain. The new country and the old. Our problems are not in our inventiveness, our skills or our people, but in how our societies work. We suffer from Politics that don’t govern, Businesses that don’t share, and Bureaucracies that don’t deliver. These are problems of late-stage democracies in need of a reset. Politicians keep promising – maybe one day one of them will actually make changes!Happy Birthday America!Have a great party! Celebrate a quarter millennium of awesomeness! Across the pond in Europe we sincerely mean that. We have much to thank the USA for and much to be proud of. Britain’s finest sailed the ocean to the new world and forged a nation. It was a reaction to a far-away tyrant’s actions, founded on the basis all men are created equal and may only be ruled with the consent of the governed. The new state attracted Europe’s huddled masses giving it the strength and diversity to thrive. Today it is the most powerful nation on Earth – as its’ leader keeps reminding us. The USA has worked pretty well – thus far!You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 2nd, 2026 – We need a revolution in Defence“Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.”The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament.(PODCAST TO FOLLOW)I sometimes wonder if the Houses of Parliament has a window cleaner? What do our politicians and civil service mandarins see when they gaze out at the geopolitical weather? They know the roof is leaking, but to fix it will be expensive and the kitty is empty. Why not throw another tarpaulin over it, and hope it doesn’t rain? Such a hope is not a great strategy here in Britain where weather lore says: “how do you know when it’s going to rain? Because it’s not raining yet?”Yes. Rain is a metaphor for conflict.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026“It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.”2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go...It’s the first of July, and we are at the half-way stage of 2026 – and hasn’t it been fascinating? I thought it might be interesting to skim through what we expected, what happened, and where we might be headed next. Its worth starting from the premise that markets are not enlightened, all-knowing crystal balls, but simply the sum of weighted stupidity – in other words, expectations are based on hopes, while reality is often the result of mistakes.That said, explaining the whole of the global economy and markets in 2 hours before breakfast and doing my day-job is a tough ask, but there are four very visible market themes that stand out in my mind – and of course, they are all inter-related, and they have all repeated themselves through history. This time it might be different - we live in a very connected world. As someone once said: “A toddler having a tantrum in Washington makes old men smile in Beijing.”You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“He can even quote “The Life of Brian” without sounding like a dalek. How bad can it be?”Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t say is about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity out of London is inspired. Who knows… it might even work!Andy Burnham talked well. He presented well. He smiled. He sounded like he believes in what he is saying. His eyebrows worked overtime as they screamed charisma and engagement. Yesterday was all about Burnham – the real-world Mr Deeds from Manchester who is going to roll up his sleeves, fix Broken Britain and save the Labour Party. Maybe. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning! 

“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.”Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders. Who will UK Prime Minister in Waiting Andy Burnham choose to be the next Chancellor the Exchequer? It’s the second most important job in the country – the role of national CFO is critical. It requires a competent politician with a grasp of finance, bonds, taxation, project management, and central banking, but it’s likely Burnham will offer the post to secure the support of political rivals with careers spent in politics rather than commerce. Will it go to Ed Miliband, the least popular minister in a very unpopular cabinet, or has it already been promised to Wes Streeting, former Health Minister, in return from him standing down his own premiership goal in return for the job?I have a suggestion for Burnham. How about Rachel Reeves?That would be a bold call.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 25th, 2026 – The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy“Democracy doesn’t collapse when a ruler lies, it collapses when people stop caring that he lies.”The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with powerful bullies taking all they can while the weakest in society will wither. Is it a film script, or what’s happening now…?LINK TO PODCAST This Morning’s Porridge is a little late because I went for a swim again this morning. Delicious it was! The heat dome over Europe has been extraordinary – but hopefully it will break tonight. The swim gave me some time to think after Scotland’s dismal 3-Nil drubbing by Brazil in the World Cup last night. So, today, something a little different for the Porridge…One of my guilty pleasures over the last few years has been The Boys - a Prime TV series. It’s curious mix of comedy, satire and visceral gore – lots of gore. It makes a Tarantino movie look like a BBC period-drama. Heads explode and bodies are ripped apart every couple of minutes in the most horrible yet surprising ways imaginable. It is sweary, it is improbable, and its utterly compulsive. It is very funny in an urgh sort of a way. The heroes are nearly as bad as the villains. There are lots of in-jokes and references which is great for nerds like me.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“The temperature’s rising, it isn’t surprising, it’s too damn hot.”Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane AI valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

"To move a mountain, start with the smaller stones…”The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will happen when the US economy is also past its top, and following the UK into maturity?It feels like a bit of a watch and wait kind of day. The streets are melting in the summer swelter – it’s simply too hot to go to London this morning. The SpaceX IPO has taken a spanking (exactly as predicted), the AI bubble and the debt financing required to make it happen looks poppy, and the market is still digesting the threat of Fed rate hikes. There are times when the best thing to do is simply stop, look and listen, and wonder about the bigger things.Thus, it was that I found myself thinking about the big film of the summer - The Odyssey – the ultimate “Journey” saga. Spoiler Alert: Wiley Odysseus, the King of sea-girt Ithaca, offends the Gods and is punished with 10-years of wandering the Mediterranean, undergoing multiple calamities, before he returns to his wife and (grown up) child, having lost his entire army and crew in the process (and fathering a couple of sons on the way, one of whom will inevitably slay his father in a case of mistaken identity years later.)Last week I was at an event hosted by Looking for Growth (“LFG”) in London, talking about how the UK could ease the funding journey for start-ups. I was there to back up the experience of two successful founders, Chloe Coleman of Vouchsafe and Ben Warner of Electric Twin, with some market context and history. They’ve both led their start-ups through successful funding rounds. (LFG is a cross-party campaign group seeking to reverse decline by promoting growth. They have the good sense to realise it’s as much a societal issue as a simple financing problem.)Today’s founders/entrepreneurs can face as terrible a journey as Odysseus to fund themselves. They have to overcome the barely coherent Cyclops of bureaucracy and regulation, the Giants of Risk Aversion,  the Enchantress sweetly asking them to sell out early or a Funder who transforms your lithe startup into wallowing swine, the lotus promises of money that never materialises, the Siren song of deep pocketed US private equity, and the Scylla or Charybdis of market bubbles and crashes. Even if founders get past the first peril; the definitional seed funding – it might not get any easier on subsequent funding rounds for growth capital if the cruel and pernicious market gods decide to abandon you.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“The king is dead. Long live the King.”Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask? There is little surprise that Sir Keir Starmer is now expected to resign - setting in motion a transfer of the UK premiership to Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor who won his way back into the Houses of Parliament last week. Starmer’s exit is being painted as proof that political instability is now built into the current UK political system - triggering a wall of worry among the commentariat about the Gilts Market and Sterling – what will the markets think of the seventh Premier in 16 years? Will the threat of increased borrowing and spending plans trigger market wobbles? And, how sustainable will the new government be?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“After all, we’re all on the same team… aren’t we?”What is the point of the G7 meetings? The issues are clear: growth, defence, security and future threats – like the developing El-Nino. Instead, the leaders dance around the Orange Man, ignoring the fragmentation around them. If we are going to put Europe on track, we have to identify the problems and address them at root. Capital Markets and Defence are examples of where it’s gone wrong – and we have solutions!What were they really thinking about at the G7 Meeting? For some leaders it may have been a blessed relief to get away from mounting domestic political pressures. For others an opportunity for a brief spell in the reflected sunlight of the event – smiling as they demonstrated they had a seat at, or adjacent to, the table. (Adjacent – word of the decade – it means SFA.) For most their biggest fear would have been the challenge of dealing with Donald Trump. But it was an older, orange-er, heavier looking Trump who grumped over the event. He may be telling everyone he was the boss and he got what he wanted from Iran… but the most dangerous 4 words in politics are “doesn’t he look tired.”You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“I am extraordinarily patient, provided I get my own way in the end.”The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing the nation dear today. Before getting into the main story on the Morning Porridge – the latest in the sorry tale of Thames Water - let me write about yesterday’s brazen intimidation of a British Yacht, the Bright Future, in foggy conditions in the English Channel yesterday. Regular readers will know I am a passionate sailor, and I’ve crossed the Channel many times in daylight, at night, in storms and in periods of calm, including foggy days.The fact there is practically nothing the UK can do to stop UK shipping being harassed by the Russians in our home waters is a consequence of the many years of neglect of our Armed Forces by successive governments. It’s another lesson in the consequences of bad policy and poor decisions.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“Sometimes I’ve believed six impossible things before breakfast”Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just how sustainable US Bonds markets might be as the global economy shifts.I think I have used the classic Alice in Wonderland (actually, it’s from Through the Looking Glass) quote more times than any other over the nearly 20 years I’ve been writing the Porridge.It feels kind of apt this morning.Yesterday Global Stock markets hit record levels, rallying on the back of the Iran deal. However, we all know (even though many aren’t prepared to accept it as the actuality) that the deal represents a definitional defeat of the USA by Global Terrorist Central - Iran. Don’t take my word for it – read the editorial in the New York Times: President Trump Lost This War.Iran won an asymmetric war versus the strongest Military Nation on Earth – knowing Trump would not put the boots on the ground that would be needed to win it. There are lots of lessons the Chinese, Russians and NATO will be absorbing. Resilience is the new watchword.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“Tonight, there’s going to be a jailbreak… don’t you be around…”There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequences in terms of global power and hegemony.Cage Fighting on the White House lawn seems the perfect metaphor for our times. Scotland beating Haiti at 4 am on Sunday morning at the World Cup was probably less significant, but very, very satisfying.That was a busy weekend. The peace deal between the USA and Iran is a fascinating lesson of the consequences of unconstrained power. The fact the US Government effectively turned off Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models was a pivotal event – and could impact the coming AI IPOs, the global adoption of US AI models, the future path of AI, and the ongoing exceptionalism of the US Tech Sector.Let’s start with AI.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 12th, 2026 – Let the Games Begin – Love the World Cup“And we’ll really shake em up when we win the World Cup!”What’s not to like about the World Cup? Forget the noise, forget the rancour – and celebrate the greatest festival of visceral tribal sport on the planet. Life is not about the money in your wallet, or the price of your stocks – but the laughs you laugh, the sighs you sigh when the penalty is missed, the cheers that cheer when the goal is scored, and the memories in the treasury of your heart!Let the Games begin! How will it go?Even though I am not the world’s most dedicated Football fan, I have greatly enjoyed the World Cup. Not so much the Footie which can be a tad boring to my mind – but the whole atmosphere around the beautiful game. Give me any pub in London when England is playing… and there is nothing quite like it. I will blare out Sweet Caroline with the worst of them!When I first started thinking about penning a Morning Porridge about the World Cup, my first thoughts were to write a tirade about Trump playing Bread and Circuses – anything to distract American Voters for the mire of the Iran war, inflation rising 75% (2.8% to 4.2%) since the start of the war, and the ongoing whiff of something rotten around connections to Epstein. (There is a superb article in the NYT this week: Inside the White House Freakout Over the Epstein Files.) It is juicy, oh so juicy – but do not let it distract you from the Footie.But, watching the lead up to the opening game last night… No. It was just too good. I will not do a hatchet job on the World Cup. Infantino and Trump will get what they deserve. What the World deserves is a fantastic celebration of Football and everything that goes with it.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s EXTRA Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UPDATE – UK DEFENCE MINISTER RESIGNS“Et tu Brute?” … “Yet Brutus is an honourable man.”UK Defence Minister John Healey’s resignation over the dearth of defence funding this morning will throw UK defence into turmoil, and further undermine the flolloping Starmer Government. Gilts spiked higher on the news.Link to PodcastThis Morning Porridge Extra continues the theme of the missing UK Defence Investment Plan discussed in this morning’s comment – UK Defence Investment Plan Delayed Again.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UK Defence Investment Plan delayed again!“To avoid war – be prepared to fight.”The UK’s Defence Investment Plan has been delayed yet again, mired in cabinet warfare on spending. The DIP will focus on big projects like a new fighter-jet but will make a nod to the lessons learnt in Ukraine. The big issue is how the defence industry will evolve away from Defence Primes towards financing the start-ups that can change the battlespace with new tech that is adaptable, available now, cheap and good-enough. There was a defence conference and exhibition a few weeks ago in Kiev. My colleagues from Spitfire Strategic Capital were there. A retired British 4-star general, and former Deputy Supreme Commander of Nato, (who is on our advisory board), looked around the exhibition of Ukraine weaponry and quietly commented, “for 1/10th of the budget I could build the army of tomorrow, instead of spending it all on the army of yesterday.”There is a blunt reality to war: When deterrence stops working you are either the aggressor or hope the enemy won’t attack until you are ready. As we all know – hope is never a strategy. Today the defence of the UK is hiding behind hope. Our armed forces are willing and brave, but unprepared, undermanned and poorly-equipped for modern war – which will be fought in a battlespace that has been constantly evolving since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.In a world of rapidly shifting Geopolitics, instability, threats and the de-facto collapse of the Transatlantic Relationship, defence should be the Nation’s number one priority.Yet the government dithers.Today we were expecting the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan to be published – detailing how the Government will spend money to re-establish the UK’s strategic deterrence.

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 10th, 2026 – Where Is AI Going and What’s it Worth?“You can’t eat a fishing rod, but you can feed a family from it.”The AI revolution is very real, but the froth around its valuations is not. The real value of AI won’t be in how hyperscalers establish themselves to “rent” us AI services, but how the real economy reacts to the opportunity, and smart firms learn to innovate it to make their businesses better and more profitable. The real upside is immense.This morning my Twitter (X) feed is full of “noise” and animations illustrating SpaceX’s space-based datacentres, together with loads of analyst “puff” parroting Elon Musk’s comments identifying datacentres in space (free of regulation and energy constraints) as the largest “Total Addressable Market” in history. The IPO cites his imagined $28 trillion of demand for AI to drive the future path of commerce and industry – and that it’s all headed his way. If I was a SEC regulator I might be wondering if its legal for Musk to be passing off his maybe’s on his social media as irrefutable facts the day before he launches the largest-ever IPO – the reality is Retail investors will form a significant part of the raise, and nothing drives retail like FOMO, and nothing whips up FOMO more than dreams of incredible riches.   The SpaceX IPO raises significant questions about what AI is really worth, and where it may head. Regular Morning Porridge readers will be surprised to know this gruff bond guy is positive in the long run.

“In bonds there is truth. In stocks there are dreams. Together they set the economy.”Western economies succeed because bond and stock markets work together. Bond markets enable governments to finance the optimal conditions for invention and innovation, enabling growth and prosperity. Sometimes Markets fall out of line, while Politics are ruled by votes rather than experience – and that’s where the wobbles start to multiply.Just back from holiday. What have I missed? 10 days sailing around the Ionian, re-reading the Odyssey, time spent on sea-girt Ithica with my sketch pad and a paintbrush… I spent days lapping up the Greek Myths! But where once the Gods did tread and toy with us, today its tourists. We truly are in the Age of Men – so we must try to make sense of it rather than accept what was once divine. As I scrabble to pick up the subtleties of the market flows, the overall picture isn’t that complex – it’s the details that matter for where markets are headed. The big picture remains one of challenge - the implications and consequences of:·      An oil shock (Iran) on the global economy, ·      The threat of higher interest rates to contain inflation,·      The sustainability of national debt burdens, ·      Social stability, and·      Geopolitical tensions…You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 28th May 2026 – SpaceX is a fantastic business, but it isn’t worth that much. “Ideas are plentiful. Delivery is the hard part.”I am genuinely excited by the SpaceX IPO. The valuation means I won’t touch the stock with a bargepole, but it should be a great business with multiple opportunities ahead of it. However, I suspect it will become another story where Musk promises much in terms of solutions which don’t get delivered. The Morning Porridge is going to take a week off. But before I go, I guess I have to say something about the Space X IPO. Why? Everyone has an opinion… My own is the IPO might just represent the frothy top of a very excitable market.Yet, there are an awful lot of positives about SpaceX out there! WHAT I hear you scream! Surely Blain can’t possibly be positive about an Elon Musk company?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, May 27th, 2026 – Record US Stock Markets But Something Ain’t Right? And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?You can’t keep a good market down. New record US levels seem to occur daily. But, why? The underlying picture of the US economy is not weak, but the political structures around it seem to be fraying. What might give and trigger the kind of reversal many expect, or might we get a more fundamental reassessment of what the USA will look like post-Trump?Joy unbounded in markets! Stock markets have hit new record levels – yet again. If you were to snapshot the US economy – what’s not to like? The AI everything boom and the promised productivity gains are driving sentiment higher. Employment numbers are generally solid. Growth is decent. Corporates are doing well with rising outlooks. And the when the stock market is strong – well, that’s a great sign of confidence in the economy and its leadership.The US President would certainly claim so…Why do I have a gut feel a crisis is coming. Its more than just rising inflation fears, or consumers struggling with a 50% hike in gas prices. Talking with American chums, I get the sense they are increasingly worried about stability and sustainability in the debt markets. In bonds there is truth – which we shall come to below.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 26th, 2026: AI - Who Should We Listen To? The Pope or the AI Owners?“Contemporary man has not been trained to use power well.” The Pope has published an Encyclical warning on the risks of an ill-considered rush towards AI. It comes at a time when AI is driving the markets, and AI leaders are whispering in Trump’s ear that regulation will destroy America’s lead. It’s not just the risk we will be turned to grey gloop by AI overlords, but how jobs, the economy, inequality and social equality are at all in play.Apologies for a very brief Morning Porridge but got to travel.Even on adjusted terms, AI has probably been the biggest driver of stock market upside in recorded history. The top 10 names in the US market account for 40% of its value - $26.5 trillion of a $65 trillion market. That’s created enormous wealth and prosperity – but as a recent survey pointed out – 50% of US stocks are held by 1% of the population…Is Pope Leo set to become the moral conscience of the markets?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 22nd 2026 – Just how bad could the bond market get?“Ships make no money sitting in port, so build and sail them to ride the storms that will inevitably assail them.”In Bonds there is truth. While government bond yields have risen some 40-50 basis points since the Iran War, and yield curves have steepened, we are not in crisis territory yet. However, the risks of “higher for longer” rates, and sustained inflation have risen. These will impact credit markets and potentially trigger a cascading corporate crisis – leading to all kinds of hell that governments and central banks are now ill-equipped to deal with.Time to talk about the bond market.The Iran inflation threat has led to mounting concern about what rising yields in Treasuries, Gilts and JGBs might herald in terms of recession and a crisis across bonds and credit. (What? You thought they were the same thing? Wrong...) Sovereign bond markets have steepened on the expectation of higher for longer interest rates primarily due to rising inflation expectations, but also due to the perception of escalating political incompetency – and it’s the yield on Bonds that set the risk rate for the whole economy.Never underestimate the probability events and bad politicians will be able to steer us into full blown stagflation!  There is no shortage of headlines about what rising debt costs mean for the sustainability of Governments – particularly here in the UK, where Sir Keir Starmer’s hapless government is scared of everything, but thinks about the bond market in abject screaming terror.Relax. It’s not the end of the world as we know it… Yet! It might become so.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 21st, 2026 – When Personalities Lead the Markets what might follow?“Second prize is a set of steak knives…”I know I should be talking about bond yields and inflation risks, but sometimes we have to stop and listen to the noise. Trump, Musk and Bill Winters. When our idols say, do and enact stupid things there are always consequences. This is a market perhaps too focused on the personalities, and not enough on the realities.The markets are getting worried about bonds. I am watching. But there are lots of other things to consider this morning when trying to fathom the current markets. In no particular order let’s deal with wage slavery, FOMO risks, and the ultimate corruption of the US dream…

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, May 2026 - Defence Investment is evolving fast, and the winners are in Ukraine.“The war for which Generals prepare is always the last one – especially if they won it.”Investing in defence was a sadly neglected skillset for many years following the end of the Cold War. Defence primes became utility like seeking to preserve margins as real budgets declined on the peace-dividend. The War in Ukraine has highlighted many things, but critically that what the Primes are selling isn’t what’s going to win the next War. To invest in defence – you need insights into the future of the battlespace. Time to talk my own book again – about Defence and how to invest in it. And, yes, I will mention Spitfire Strategic Capital, where I am senior advisor to the managing partners. Most investors have now woken up to the reality it’s time to forget everything they thought was obvious about investing in Defence. If only it was as simple as buying swords because the trumpets are sounding. It’s not. The stock price gains European Defence Primes experienced after the Ukraine invasion went into reverse last year. That’s not because the threat is receding, but because of the old truism Generals (actually procurement departments) will always plan to fight the last war, and not the one that is coming! Last year’s stock market darling, Rheinmetall is down 40% from its top last October as that realisation has sunk in. Modern war and the weapons to fight it have fundamentally changed – we will not see the behemothic armoured clashes on the North German plains that NATO planned to fight during the Cold War.To invest in defence today you need to understand how the battlespace has evolved and expanded. That covers what happened following the fall of the Berlin Wall and, even more importantly, how warfighting has evolved over the last 4 years in Ukraine.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 19th, 2026 – Why are politics so broken when markets are so strong?“The only thing that scares me is Keyser Soze.”Why are markets so high when the global outlook, trade and domestic politics look so vulnerable? Is it because investors perceive that corporates hold such power in the economy, they now set the agenda? What the global economy may need is a reset, but at present there are few signs the problem of power and wealth inequality will be reversed or addressed. What a curious world we live in. The US president has made himself a billionaire through astute insider trading he’ll never be touched for, and just made a trip to Beijing, surrounded by other billionaires – billionaires representing what America has now become. Look at our strength. Look at our wealth. Look at our power. If that’s what The Emperor Xi saw, he didn’t show it as he provided guidance to Trump on the decline of the American age.I am not sure Markets know what to make of it. On one hand they are putting a premium on corporate strength and profits stretching into infinity. On the other they see broken politics, rising populism, insurmountable debt, and broken public services. Any fool knows that successful economies need consumption and confidence to drive them – and that inequality spells social crisis.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Late Afternoon Porridge, Monday 18th, May – The Truth and Financial Media risk becoming strangers“The past is erased, the erasure is forgotten, and the lie becomes the truth.”To understand markets and the economy you need to understand how it really works; the where, what, when, why and how of the frictions that make for imperfect markets interreact. That includes politics. But trying to explain these factors is now subject to Social Media censorship – the reality is a distributed Ministry of Truth straight out of 1984. Social media now determines who can talk about markets and what they can say. Referring to incompetent politics gets you banished to the outer limits of conspiracy finance!Dear ReadersApologies for no Porridge this morning. I was… busy.I’ve been writing the Morning Porridge for nearly 20 years. It’s always been an “extra” I chose to do in addition to my day job as a financier in the Private Capital Markets. I write about markets as I perceive them – attempting to present the markets as a calm, rational, and pragmatic player of the game. The Porridge comprises my thoughts as a market insider, seeking to explain actionable insights as to what’s really occurring, and the how, why, and when of what participants are thinking.My comments and opinions are the result of the experiences that have stuck to me over 40 plus years in the Game of Markets, and the daily discussions I have with my clients and other market folk. I was asked to contribute to a TV Channel doing a piece on why markets remain so resilient despite the wall of worry about everything. They wanted “talking heads”, including myself, to explain what the market might be missing about current events, ructions and price moves. Not an uncommon request - which I am delighted to do. I gave them some outline thoughts on themes; and not all were negative. I explained about the dangers of FOMO, inflation, supply disruption, and the effects of AI under-tow, but also how much of the political angst is likely overdone.I was then asked not to reference Donald Trump, the US Administration or politics in my comments. The host explained to me how the algorithms that drive social media and You-Tube are now trained to lock-out anything that mentions POTUS, US Politics, Tariffs, Iran or such. The TV host wants the show to be seen by as many people as possible, therefore it has to conform to Social Media algos.Algos are not the truth.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, May 15th 2026 – What did we learn from the Beijing show?“He was a gentleman on whom I built an absolute trust.”Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting the state of the US economy, and the mistakes in Iran, means Trump will become less relevant from November.Who won?While Trump and Xi, the two most powerful men in global history, mansplained their visions of new World order to each other, and their supporting casts of minions, (lots of US business leaders expecting to go home with deals), bobbed their heads up and down in agreement… the UK’s Guardian newspaper noted not a single woman was sat at the negotiating table in Beijing. She-who-is-Mrs-Blain rolled her eyes in surprise that I thought it even worth mentioning… she’s a true-blue conservative, but can’t understand why any American woman would vote for THAT man.What did the market make of it all?

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 14th, 2026 – Don’t Blame Starmer, Britain was Broken years ago... “And was Jerusalem builded here, among these dark satanic mills…”The imminent departure of Sir Keir Starmer (it is a matter of when, not if) is bread and circuses. His defenestration will distract and amuse the chattering political classes and infuriate voters as yet more evidence of Broken Britain. But we need to be honest – it's not any single “leader’s” fault. 60 years of bad decisions piled on poor policies have landed the UK in the mire of the present. It can be fixed – but it will need a reset.Yesterday was a tough day – a classic Broken Britain Odessey…My early train up to London was only 20 mins late, but then the underground was a mare. Because the tubes were dicey, I tried to grab a bus to the next meeting, but the driver opened the door to tell me the Bus Stop was non-operational therefore he could not let me on (!!) I walked in the hail and rain to the next bus-stop, overtaking the same bus – smiling my most sarcastic grin at the same driver as I got on.Lunch with clients to discuss a rather excellent gold deal (give me a shout if interested) gave us a superb view of the Household Cavalry returning to Barracks after the State Opening of Parliament. Magnificent, and it well impressed our potential investors. But after an excellent feast, the tube was broken (again), necessitating a taxi to Waterloo in grid-locked traffic, missing 2 trains to catch a later one that was stopped dead in Basingrad because of something broken somewhere South. Fortunately, She-Who-is-Mrs-Blain (who was in Winchester) was able to pick me up, so we could crawl through the botched rebuild of a roundabout on the M3 together. And then it was the broken sewers on the lane back to the village, meaning I was hours later than I expected.Pretty much a normal day in Broken Britain.Yesterday was a day of high political drama in the UK. Politicians scoring points off each other – but otherwise doing FA. The electorate bored and frustrated by it all – hating any and all government because it doesn’t seem to be delivering anything. Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves are seen as weak ditherers. Kemi Badenough, leader of the notional opposition, wielded the classic: “in office, but not in power” comment well – but would she be any better than Starmer? It seems inevitable he will be packing his tea-chests and exiting Downing Street before too long… another disappointing prime minister in a succession of disappointing prime ministers.The question, however, we should be asking is not why is Starmer so bad, but why is Britain so Broken? Our politics have become a reflection of bust – offering nothing to raise us higher.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 12th, 2026 – The NACHO Trade and What it Might Lead To“It may look pure, but only because blood washes so easily from its blade…”Trump is running out of options over Iran. Bluff and Bluster won’t fix it. When he visits Beijing this week, he will be up against Emperor Xi – who holds all the cards; sufficient oil reserves, dominance over global supply chains, and critically the ability to shut off the single most important commodity in the world today – Chips. On Wall Street they are calling it the NACHO trade – “Not a chance Hormuz Opens”. As US stocks continue to hit record levels on the back of AI FOMO, it would seem economic crisis Trump has inflicted across the rest of the World is an amusing little joke. Ha f*ck*ng ha. The rest of the world is not laughing. The damage is very real.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 11th, 2026 – A tale of 3 Cities, London, DC and Beijing.“[The sun] rose upon no sadder sight than the man of good abilities and good emotions, incapable of their directed exercise…”2 choices for markets this week. Worry about where politics are headed in DC and London, and where the Beijing summit will lead us. Or join the AI party, bet everything on the upcoming IPOs, and dance yourself dizzy before someone pulls the plug. Interesting days ahead. Ah, the joy of another Monday morning in the Global Financial Markets! What have we got to look forward to this week? Political fun and games in London, and then how the Xi / Trump summit plays out in Beijing.But will the market be paying any attention? Probably not when there is so much easy money to be made picking gold off the pavements on AI street. Apparently.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 8th, 2026 – 81 years later what have we learnt?“War is the unfolding of miscalculations.”Today is the 81st anniversary of VE Day – the end of the Second World War in Europe. Markets are fixated on rising stock prices and probably won’t notice. Complacency is the danger. The Wars in Ukraine and Iran highlight success and failure and point towards a very different future world than the expected one. There are massive implications for markets – but that’s a tomorrow problem for markets focused on “now”. I try to catch “shifts” in The Morning Porridge – seeking to contextualise the significance of events across investment and trading. (I guess I always was a frustrated journalist.) I glean and refine my thoughts from the chats I have with clients, and the stuff I read while doing my day job – working to advise and finance on private capital assets, and increasingly on the defence fund, Spitfire Strategic Capital.If there is an overarching theme to The World (in the three short hours I put aside early each morning to scribble the Porridge), it’s how swiftly expectations can change. That has never been truer than it is today. Ukraine was expected to be overrun in just a few days. Iran was going to beaten into submission to Trump’s will over a similar time frame. How these wars play out will have enormous future consequences. 

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 7th, 2026 – The AI Revolution is set to consume itself.“Like Saturn, the Revolution devours its own children.”Markets can’t wait for the Iran war to end – so they can get back to speculating trillions on the AI revolution. The hyperscalers expect to reap monopoly scale rents from owning AI closed-weight models and the digital infrastructure of datacentres and chips. But what if households can build their own AI capabilities cheaper and more effectively? Pop!Yesterday the stock market, yet again, hit new record highs on the back of vague mumblings from President Trump about the Iranians wanting to agree to what he says they agreed. The Iranians might have shook their heads and dismissed the proposals as a “wish-list rather than reality” – but who is listening? Hey-ho, a deal sounds like a deal is what Mr Market heard. Sooner or later, every single trader knows a deal has to happen.The market is blithely prepared to react to any positive noise as irrefutable proof an Iran settlement, peace, joy, prosperity and an immediate solution to higher energy, jet fuel, fertiliser, pharma, etc prices is just around the corner. Mr Market knows Trump is beaten and is scrambling to find an exit – which is fine. The market doesn’t care if Trump loses face, or whatever lies he will tell about winning – his words will be utterly irrelevant. The key for markets is getting ahead of the rally, rather than being left behind it. The rally has FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) tattooed on its forehead. And it’s happening now.The market wants to forget about Iran even more than Trump does.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 6th, 2026 – Gilts and the Labour Party; the Judder Moment“Apres Moi le deluge...”The UK is not about to disappear in a puff of smoke because the Gilts Market is having a minor tantrum. But there is a serious Political Competency premium on Gilts, which will rise when the scale of Labour’s defeat becomes apparent, and the Starmer premiership is up against the wall. Trouble ahead.It’s two weeks since I last wrote about my growing concerns for the Gilt Market: “Gilts Wobble as Much as Starmer.”After the yield on the 30-year Gilt hit 5.81% y’day, perilously close to the key psychological 6% level, there is a definite sense of a Judder Moment. (This morning The Long Gilt it at 5.75%, 17 basis points higher than April 22nd!)The mood wasn’t help by bond guru Mo The Tash, (El-Erian) ex-of Pimco, yesterday tweeting his “concerns about the economic health of the nation” … A few weeks ago, El-Erian observed in the FT that Gilts have become “temperamental, overreacting to the slightest provocation.” That’s a great definition of a nervous market.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 5th, 2026 – Who will prove the eventual winners?“All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand…”The War/Not War in the Gulf rambles on – and the consequences mount. Careless markets are becoming anesthetised to the news – raising the risks of a shock destabilisation. The big question is what will follow? Who will be the winners from Trump’s misbegotten war?LINK TO PODCASTIf anyone is still watching; what’s occurring in Trump’s War on Iran? While I still scan the news wires, nothing much registers anymore.Most folk in the markets are looking away – it’s just too embarrassing to watch. Trump threatens, postures, and pouts… but who is fooled? What plan? I’ve been told he’s hoping for an internal revolution which could be a long-time coming. What matters is shipping moving through the straits – which (unless you are a Russian Oligarch) generally ain’t happening.We watch the numbers and listen to the central bankers, concluding rising inflation and rising rates remain the most likely outcome. A sustained higher price for oil is one thing, but it’s more nuanced than that – as OPEC and NATO both unravel the world is changing faster than at any time post 1945.That’s nothing to panic over. Change is opportunity. There will be winners and losers. It’s getting easier to figure out who they might be.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 5th, 2026 – Who will prove the eventual winners?“All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand…”The War/Not War in the Gulf rambles on – and the consequences mount. Careless markets are becoming anesthetised to the news – raising the risks of a shock destabilisation. The big question is what will follow? Who will be the winners from Trump’s misbegotten war?If anyone is still watching; what’s occurring in Trump’s War on Iran? While I still scan the news wires, nothing much registers anymore.Most folk in the markets are looking away – it’s just too embarrassing to watch. Trump threatens, postures, and pouts… but who is fooled? What plan? I’ve been told he’s hoping for an internal revolution which could be a long-time coming. What matters is shipping moving through the straits – which (unless you are a Russian Oligarch) generally ain’t happening.We watch the numbers and listen to the central bankers, concluding rising inflation and rising rates remain the most likely outcome. A sustained higher price for oil is one thing, but it’s more nuanced than that – as OPEC and NATO both unravel the world is changing faster than at any time post 1945.That’s nothing to panic over. Change is opportunity. There will be winners and losers. It’s getting easier to figure out who they might be.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Mayday 2026 – Stagflation... No, definitely not... but yes. “By tax adjustments we have planned to institute the promised land, and just to show we’re still sincere, we’ll sing the Red Flag once a year…”When staring down the abyss of looming stagflation, a bond market rout, and a reset on the global economy… let’s try to pretend it’s all something else. Christine Legarde would have made a great French President. Of course it’s not Stagflation... it’s just... Well? What is it?Its May Day – The Sun is shining brightly on this most Socialist Day of the year. Bandiera Rosa, La Triumphera indeed! Tonight, I shall recall my youth on the barricades of leftist student politics and put on my reddest of red ties to celebrate the working class and the nobility of the proletariat as we quaff the bubbles at the Yacht Club dinner…. I will wonder where the f*** it all went so wrong?Yesterday ECB President Christine Legarde dismissed the threat of Stagflation that hangs over the Western Economy. She played semantics and argued stagflation was something from the 1970s - like flared pants and platform soles. She suggested we face something completely different today.Really? What might that be then Chrissy?Let’s think it through – where are we today?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 30th, April 2026 – Defence: too complex, too difficult, which is why you must invest!“If you want to value the price of freedom and defence – take a look at the failed Soviet economies.”Defence is among the most difficult areas to invest. Who would become an analyst after 30-years as a Cinderella sector in the wake of ESG and peace dividends? Now, the imperative for new defence investment is crying out for private capital. That puts a clear premium on knowledge, contacts and skill to invest. Here is a solution. Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will be aware that a large part of my “day-job” focus is on the defence sector. This morning I will be part-talking my own book - I am senior advisor to the Defence Fund, Spitfire Strategic Capital.Security is the single most important function of government. Defence is a critical part of the economy in terms of multipliers and innovation. Yet the sector is widely misunderstood by politicians and under-analysed by the investment community. Politicians box-tick security spending as if it’s a choice rather than necessity. Many major funds simply don’t invest in defence – full-stop. Other’s dip cautious toes in the water, thinking a small allocation to BAE or Rheinmetall will make the war-risks to the global economy go away.Time to wake up and smell the coffee. The world has changed.Conflicts happen because states perceive weakness and see the opportunity for a win. Trump spun the dice on Venezuela and won. He doubled down seeing an easy play in Iran. Bad roll. Now the war is a Stalemate, with oil touching record levels this morning. The economic consequences will likely cost Trump the November mid-terms, leaving him lame-ducked and very, very angry – raising additional US political polarisation risks.Let me blunt about the consequences of War.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 29th, 2026 – Malta, The King, The Gulf and whatever next….“America’s words carry weight and meaning… the actions of this great nation matter even more...”Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better? The end of strong states often results in smaller nations competing harder to thrive! Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge the last few days. I’ve been in Malta – a mix of business and pleasure. Having withstood two incredible sieges in the last 500 years, Malta resonates with lessons from history – and history informs markets (if they are prepared to listen.) What has Malta got to do with markets you wonder? Little and everything. Today the market is trading small wave to small wave – weighing up the implications of what the solved Fed Head impasse means, disappointing OpenAI numbers mean for the change AI promises to enact across the whole economy, or wondering what the next Trump outburst might do to sentiment. They pay less attention to developing situations, like what the long-term consequences of the exit of the UAE from OPEC and the rift between the Gulf States and Saudi might ultimately mean. Watch events carefully. They highlight how the world is changing and evolving – not necessarily to the advantage of the powers in positions of apparent strength. NATO has been the cornerstone of the most successful defence and economic alliance of all time. OPEC has dominated energy markets as a Cartel threat for over 50 years. All things change... and to figure out how… You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!