Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge September 15th, 2026“Europe was created by history. America is a product of philosophy.”Europe is a diverse, culturally rich and fascinating continent but increasingly looks an economic basket case facing economic and demographic decline. Its suffering economic PTSD after successive shocks in Banking, Sovereign Debt and now Energy. Now it’s being squeezed between an unreliable USA and China’s proxy, Russia. Maybe that’s the challenge it needs?LINK TO PODCASTKey TakeawaysThe Geopolitical fragmentation of the Western Alliance raises serious challenges for Europe.Europe should be economically significant, but its history and political fragmentation has held it back.It is scarred by economic crises – 2008, the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Ukraine Oil Shock, and now the post-Nato era challenge to defence.The key economic weakness is the lack of depth to its capital markets. There is no single market to enable European businesses to thrive.Effective capital markets will require Unity (and probably the integration of the UK).Europe is not too small, poor or unskilled, but it lacks an effective capital market and political unity. In an increasingly fraxious world it must unify or be picked off one by one.We live in a very changed World.Europe is struggling with scale, growth and productivity. The future looks likely to be American or Chinese. Neither of them looks particularly attractive options from this side of the Pond. Yoorp will likely be left behind. Unless… something was to happen to galvanise European unity and growth.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge September 15th, 2026“Europe was created by history. America is a product of philosophy.”Europe is a diverse, culturally rich and fascinating continent but increasingly looks an economic basket case facing economic and demographic decline. Its suffering economic PTSD after successive shocks in Banking, Sovereign Debt and now Energy. Now it’s being squeezed between an unreliable USA and China’s proxy, Russia. Maybe that’s the challenge it needs? Key TakeawaysThe Geopolitical fragmentation of the Western Alliance raises serious challenges for Europe.Europe should be economically significant, but its history and political fragmentation has held it back.It is scarred by economic crises – 2008, the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Ukraine Oil Shock, and now the post-Nato era challenge to defence.The key economic weakness is the lack of depth to its capital markets. There is no single market to enable European businesses to thrive.Effective capital markets will require Unity (and probably the integration of the UK).Europe is not too small, poor or unskilled, but it lacks an effective capital market and political unity. In an increasingly fraxious world it must unify or be picked off one by one.We live in a very changed World.Europe is struggling with scale, growth and productivity. The future looks likely to be American or Chinese. Neither of them looks particularly attractive options from this side of the Pond. Yoorp will likely be left behind. Unless… something was to happen to galvanise European unity and growth.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge – 14th, Sept 2026“Scary thought no 1 – AI was watching as I wrote this, taken note, and made the appropriate responses.”There is a rising kerfuffle around the safety of AI. There are good reasons to be fearful. The leading AI Tech Lords now acknowledge there are serious dangers – but AI is now a strategic resource! Thus, there are games of national and company self-interest, and geopolitics all at play in terms of how to harness it. What it all means for markets is still unclear – but some reassessment of the risks should be considered. The horses are running and the stable door is wide open. Key Takeaways:The AI Tech Lords now acknowledge serious risks from the breakneck rollout of AI, calling for guardrails, safeguards and a slower pace of development.They may already be too late – there are warning signs AI is teaching itself, and learning how to “swarm” – with massive implications for the digital web economy.Regulation will be too slow.AI is now a strategic resource – and will need limits in the same way as nuclear weapons.A China/US AI Arms Race is probably inevitable.Markets have to reassess what a slowdown or oversight (and maybe regulation), plus greater safety costs means for AI revenues.How afraid should we be? The Pandora’s Box of the AI race was flung open a while ago…  

Blain’s Morning Comment 9/11 2026“The sleeper must awaken…”Keep your eyes on JD Vance. He is headed for a coronation. What will that mean for America and global markets? He’s not stupid, but many suspect hes is not his own man – he owes his successes to billionaire Mega-mind Peter Theil. Vance will lead the attack on the Progressive, Weirdo, Democratic Socialists, but even if he wins… what kind of market and economy might he inherit? Key Takeaways:JD Vance is stepping to the fore as Trump’s likely successor. He’s doing a competent job sorting through the mess that is Trump’s war on Iran.There are questions around how much he is still influenced by Peter Theil and how a Vance presidency may serve the “Nerd” Billionaire faction.We are passed Peak Trump – that will be confirmed in November. Step forward the new man.Vance will campaign around the stability of conservative Republican political competency vs the danger of radical progressive Democrat socialists, who have a branding problem and no clear leader.Whatever happens, the scale of US debt and how to refinance it will be the legacy issue for whoever wins in 2028.The consequences of years of financial repression, capital markets abundance, cheap liquidity and now de-dollarisation, and a crisis in refinancing debt could trigger higher inflation and economic crisis.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 10th, Sept 2026“So long and thanks for all the fish... Relax and let the world dissolve around you…”If there is a 10% chance AI is going to kill us all, then that’s probably bad news for bond markets. There are a lots of things that threaten us, but fortunately most of them are quite unlikely. A 1 in 10 chance we’re all toast is not. Global markets will probably choose to look the other way, but how would your own investment decisions change if you knew the Terminator is about to knock on the door?Key TakeawaysA 10% extinction risk is the Economic Elephant in the Room – but markets will probably choose not to see it.What is the right response to the threat? Go spend it while you still can!AI risks are probably more significant than any natural threat – including the Zombie apocalypse and JD Vance’s “end of times”.A 10% AI risk may be far higher than it sounds – it’s not a binary Terminator moment, but will be an ongoing process. If it’s a 10% chance of AI Quietus over 5 years, then in 50 years time there is only a 35% probability we are still around!AI Alignment is nonsense – we are too fickle, emotional and destructive to predict or model.You should read more Sci-Fi. Isaac Asimov predicted this would happen 85 years ago, wrote the laws of Robotics and a charming little story about how AI finds religion!Oh dear. Not much point worrying about the 30-year Treasury bond then? If there is a 10% chance that AI is going to destroy humanity... Well, what’s the point…Time to go spend it all.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 9th, Sept 2026“This is who we are.”Friday is the 25th anniversary of 9/11. It was the worst of days. It changed the World forever. How has it changed America and what are the risks it raises for the future? America is a great and powerful nation – but is going through a painful period. What did Osama Bin Laden’s carefully calculated terror do to America’s future? The scars run deep. Who won?Key Takeaways9/11 was an asymmetric outrage designed to shock and trigger an over-reaction – yet America swiftly renewed itself, defining itself by its unity, resilience and determination.The War on Terror defined the US for the early part of this millennium, and has cost trillions – with the negatives of rising debt and ongoing regional instability. It became a focus for growing resentment of the USA.US public opinion has shifted against “foreign entanglements”, other nations wars, and become more inward looking. The initial unity soured – today the USA is more politically polarised than ever before.What did the War on Terror achieve? Afghanistan is back in Taliban hands, Iraq is a basket case, ISIS Islamic radicalism still festers in the sands, and the War on Iran is going nowhere.Decades of fruitless war and security operations have left the USA stretched, while China was able to build economic infrastructure, grow its economy and now challenge for hegemonic power.There is a danger an overstretched America suffers a strategic setback of the scale of the Tet Offensive of 1968 during the Vietnam war which could trigger a further distancing of the USA from global alliances.Friday will be the 25th Anniversary of 9/11.9/11 remains the most viscerally shocking event of our lifetimes. Any of us old enough know exactly where we were as it happened.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th Sept, 2026 “If I was trying to get to there, I would not be starting from here.”The coming year is likely to be shaped by higher inflation from energy and El Nino, rising interest rates, “policy-mistake” risks, and revaluation risks as capital markets adapt to rate normalisation. Looming over it all be political noise. Understanding where we are, how we got here and what happens next will be critical. Key Takeaways:Inflation is likely to remain “elevated” through 2027 – leading to multiple market consequences and revaluation threat.Interest rates will likely stay on a rising path – with elevated “policy-mistake” risk in the UK as inflation and slowing growth collide.The UK’s economic problems are the consequences of long-term economic history and accumulated economic weaknesses resulting from successive government policies.The USA is economically robust but faces threats from Chinese competition in it core hi-value tech markets and the potential of hegemonic decline.Rising US rates may weaken the capital markets that have driven US success, but are more likely to trigger a fundamental reassessment of value – corrective.Trying to sort out broken economies and fractured politics will prove difficult – it may be time to give Neo-Keynesian fiscal polies and investment a try… why not? Nothing else is working.The trajectory of US and UK interest rates is not looking good.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge Sept 7th, 2026“Someday, I will call upon you to perform a service for me...”Trump is the most unrestrained US president – yet is supported by the richest and most successful men in America even as we watch him upend everything the USA once stood for. What if Trump is just the front-man for a Regime that is changing the World - breaking traditional relationships and alliances to create a stronger America as China threatens to supersede it? Europe is struggling with the new rules of America’s primacy, the end of the Nato Era, the emergence of a new American hemisphere, and how nations should relate to the new Imperial USA. How these will all play in the Great Game to be Global Hegemon is as yet unclear, but the world is changing fast.Key TakeawaysThere is nothing a good conspiracy theory to start the week, but there is a reason right-wing US billionaires are so keen to support Trump. They are looking to the future and how to protect their power, position and influence. Trump was the perfect front-man for them.The Trump regime has been willing to risk America’s soft-power to secure a new era of America Primacy, and to create an imperial US hemisphere. Canada, Greenland and the Falklands are all game-pieces to be resolved.Trump’s instance on leading global peace initiatives may be rooted in his desire for legacy Nobel prize, but the Regime’s objectives are about confirming US primacy over its allies, as are the demands they pay for their own defence.Trump may think the USA can recover its’ position as the global manufacturing power – the promise made to MAGA faithful - but the Regime believes a new American hemisphere and tech-power and supremacy could maintain economic power.Trump is willing to kow-tow to Emperor Xi of China and Tzar Putin of Russia because that’s where Global power resides. Why deal with divided Europeans, when there is a new world order to create?Trump’s green-light to Argentina on the Falklands wasn’t random – it was a deliberate statement on intent on what the new world will look like.I’ve been reading the new talk-of-the-town sensationalist book: The Nerd Reich: Silicon Valley Fascism and the War on Democracy. It's… interesting. Get past the verbiage and it’s about how billionaire techies have banded around Trump because they see opportunity – which is scary and very far removed from the constitution. To be clear it’s an intriguing book. I don’t agree with it… all.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge September 3rd, 2026 “These are not the droids you are looking for…”The media has us all convinced Western Economies are on the verge of a bond meltdown. However, what is really happening is The Great Bond Market Normalisation – a return to real interest rates that reflect the global economy and where nations are. The big risk is that repricing government bonds will crash currently absurd valuations across other financial assets – precipitating a wider market crisis.Key Takeaways:The Bond market is not the crisis – worry about what happens to financial asset valuations when the risk free rate normalises after years of financial repression (ultra-low rates). That will hurt. There is a systemic feedback loop of rising rates forcing revaluations.Current bond yields are not extreme. They are low by historical standards.Western nations are not going to default on high debt levels, and the fears about bond vigilantes are over-exaggerated. They are magnified by politically motivated media.Inflation, demand and supply and the economic outlook will be key drivers of rising yields – and always have been, except in periods of financial repression – as we saw from 2008-2023.The UK is vulnerable due to low growth post Brexit, but its bond market is fundamentally in better health with a longer duration than most. Rising gilt yields have been magnified into crisis by hostile right-wing media and political posturing. Look past it.Markets are uncertain. Yields are rising. Debt quantums are uncomfortably high... What’s really going wrong in the bond markets?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, 2nd September 2026“No injury to humans. Obedience to humans. Self-preservation.”Narratives are what drive stock markets. Robots are seen as a massive multi-trillion-dollar Total Addressable Market – with strategic and social implications that will utterly change economies. Musk expects to sell millions every year. The reality is likely to be very different – robotics and society will evolve and probably end up unlike anything we envisage today. Key Takeaways:Robotics may become the most visible part of the AI revolution.It is likely to become a huge industrial sector – but it’s unlikely to develop as current expectations predict.Industrial Robotics will evolve away from the bi-pedal format – designed for function and maybe modular. Scale industrial robotics will become a strategic resource.The market for humanoid bi-pedal robots may become a domestic niche.Competition is hotting up – Elon Musk expects to sell millions of Optimus ‘bots, but China is already producing.China’s success in capturing swathes of global auto demand highlights the cost vs utility challenge for Western Robotic manufacturers.The market’s attention is fixed on the disconcerting moves in the bond markets. Bond yields are rising – No Sh*t Sherlock. It doesn’t mean the end of the world as we know it. It means a market responding to the multiple new realities of inflation, trade disruptions, hefty debt loads, frothy valuations, changing geopolitical money flows, and the rest.

Blain’s Morning Porridge, September 1st, 2026 “Markets have no memory. When crisis hits the reasons are swiftly forgotten, and we have to relearn them all again.”Is a financial crisis coming our way? US Debt, Inflation, Trade, Energy, AI concerns and the rest pushed the revealed wisdom of new Fed Head Kevin Warsh out the limelight last week. Bond yields continue to rise. There are now growing fears of slowdown, or worse. Cheer up! Not the end of the World. But if a financial crisis is coming it will reflect lessons from the past on liquidity, but to solve it we also must acknowledge how much the world has changed since the last one in 2008. This time it will be different!Key takeaways:The Fed is moving towards tighter policyOil and trade shocks are rising – Warsh did well to iterate his thinking, but the real economy leads markets.The Fed and Treasury may be pulling different ways – if the market perceives it to be so, confidence will drop.AI is no longer the key factor driving markets – strong numbers don’t disguise rising doubts.What happens when US 10-year hits 5%?What role should China play in a global financial crisis?I got taken to task by a Morning Porridge reader on Friday morning. He told me my negativity was getting repetitive and overly cynical. These may be fair comments… I shall take note – but I won’t want to change the style. I will keep telling it is as I see it. Other market commentators are available – although, to be fair… I am not reading much positivity elsewhere.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, September 1st, 2026“Markets have no memory. When crisis hits the reasons are swiftly forgotten, and we have to relearn them all again.”Is a financial crisis coming our way? US Debt, Inflation, Trade, Energy, AI concerns and the rest pushed the revealed wisdom of new Fed Head Kevin Warsh out the limelight last week. Bond yields continue to rise. There are now growing fears of slowdown, or worse. Cheer up! Not the end of the World. But if a financial crisis is coming it will reflect lessons from the past on liquidity, but to solve it we also must acknowledge how much the world has changed since the last one in 2008. This time it will be different!Key takeaways:The Fed is moving towards tighter policyOil and trade shocks are rising – Warsh did well to iterate his thinking, but the real economy leads markets.The Fed and Treasury may be pulling different ways – if the market perceives it to be so, confidence will drop.AI is no longer the key factor driving markets – strong numbers don’t disguise rising doubts.What happens when US 10-year hits 5%?What role should China play in a global financial crisis?I got taken to task by a Morning Porridge reader on Friday morning. He told me my negativity was getting repetitive and overly cynical. These may be fair comments… I shall take note – but I won’t want to change the style. I will keep telling it is as I see it. Other market commentators are available – although, to be fair… I am not reading much positivity elsewhere.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 28th, 2026“Then we shall fight in the shade…”Tensions between Moscow and Europe are rising. There are rumours of war. While Western nations seek to rearm and adopt the lessons learnt by Ukraine, a bubble has developed in Mil-Tec arounds autonomy and drones. Defence investment is not a speculative opportunity – but a key issue for the sustainability and longevity of nations. It’s a complex investment landscape that requires specialist expert knowledge.Key Takeaways:Defence investment is an economic necessity. It will not be buried by the developing Mil-Tec bubble.Private capital firms rushing into the “Total Addressable Market” (TAM) rather than understanding the need is creating the frothy investment market.The rules of defence investment are very different to Tech. Ultimately; there is one monopoly buyer of military kit – governments, but geopolitical shifts, changing alliances, and the reinvention and creation of new defence contractor “primes” underlies the re-growth of the sector.The depth of US capital markets is funding the bubble – European investors have been slow to commit to Defence.Understanding the evolution of the battlespace (which exists in multiple dimensions) is the key to due diligence of defence opportunities.Military reality matters far more than financial hype. Investment needs to be considered but immediate.As we wait to hear all about what Kevin Warsh says at Jackson Hole, I thought it might be interesting to write about my day job - financing the new Defence Investment Fund; Spitfire Strategic Capital.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 27th, 2026“I’d like be thought of as a decent human being….”Celebrate Dolly. A reminder of real American exceptionalism and authenticity. What will replace her in the new America where Mega Tech and AI can settle the wrongs they do with no-liabilities settlements? Where the Vice President is a manufactured product of Billionaire’s Libertarian philosophy? Where the President runs the country as a fief to be milked dry? But can Authenticity can be bought and sold by the yard? At some point the people are going to question what’s really happening.   Key TakeawaysDolly Parton’s passing represents the end of an Age. Her authenticity was entirely of her own construction and on her own terms. There are no politicians like her.Authenticity is political currency – but it is increasingly scarce.Meta’s sudden settlement on child social media addiction is the new reality – true corporate power is the ability to payoff wrongdoing with no admission of guilt.Trump’s political success was persuading voters he was the authentic voice of the left-behind and would restore them – but now he sits at the centre of the coterie of tech billionaires who seek a new version of America.The Billionaire vision of a new America is, as yet, unclear but it sure won’t be “all men are created equal”. Some are very much more equal than 99.99% of their fellow Americans.The flags are flying at half-mast across the US in a mark of respect for Dolly Parton. They call it grief, but it’s a celebration of a genuine life lived well and loved well. But it is notable because it’s the end of an era – where Dolly’s success and politicians’ power were factors of their authenticity.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 25th, 2026“Financial Gravity is shifting East – as will investment.”One rule of finance is “follow the money”. The ructions and rising doubts on the sustainability of the US Treasury Market and dollar in the evolving post-US era economy means it may be time for investment transition strategies – where will the future lie? What aspects of US and other Western Democracies will thrive, and how much more investible will China and, perhaps, India become? What are the risks?Key Takeaways:The West is no longer the only game in town. Concerns over the sustainability of Western debt, economic growth, political stability, America First transactionalism, and “financialisation” have eroded confidence.The unravelling of NATO and western division has accelerated decline – the West is no longer a cohesive economic block – and is less economically and militarily formidable than it was.China’s economy has evolved swiftly and leaves the state command and control economy look like a viable alternative to the West.China is not self-sufficient. There are still areas the West can maintain comparative advantage to trade from. The West is still “richer” in GDP capita terms.Europe faces a choice – pragmatic reciprocal engagement with China may be better than trying to deal with unstable populist politics in the USA. But that will further strengthen China’s strategic aim of splitting the Western Democracies.Longer-term, India’s demographics may prove a second option for Europe – both seek growth and markets. Perhaps a new European/Indian trade alliance could become a new trading block?Headlines on the front page of the Thunderer of London this morning is the news the Rausing family - billionaire inventors of the tetra Pak – have taken $1 bln out the US stock market.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 24th, 2026“Change before you have to…”This week is going to be… “interesting”. Confidence in the US financial markets and system is under pressure. The US owes more than $40 trillion. Bessent’s intervention in bond markets has backfired, the market is waiting to judge new Fed Head Kevin Warsh, and Trump has kicked off a new trade war with Canada. The USA’s Virtuous Sovereign Trinity of the Dollar, the Treasury Market, and Political Competency looks well-wobbly. Meanwhile, the latest documentary on Boeing shows how the myth of US exceptionalism is under pressure.Key Takeaways:This could become a confidence and liquidity crisis if markets continue to pressure Treasuries.Bessent’s attempt to manipulate the US yield curve is seen as political interference in the Fed’s role – and has backfired.QE worked in 2010-2022 because inflation wasn’t a threat, debt quantum’s were manageable, there was consensus, and the dollar’s dominance was not in question. Today, the situation is very different. What happens to market confidence if the Fed Put no longer works?Kevin Warsh’s credibility is the main question to be answered at Jackson Hole. Will he try to please the president, equivocate, or please markets? He could trigger a Treasury breakout. A bond market sell-off is manageable – but only if the Fed retains credibility!A treasury crisis could impact all US assets. The new documentary on Boeing “Freefall”, is a case study on how the financialisation of US firms enabled by the depth of US capital markets may be about to unravel.This is shaping up to be a very dangerous week for markets and the US financial system.

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 20th, 2026“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”With US debt about the breach $40 trillion, Scotty Bessent intervened to stem rising long-end yields. The market loved it, but the reality is that distorting interest rates has all kinds of consequences. That includes the risk an economy focused entirely on financial returns isn’t spotting or addressing real world threats to jobs, growth, conflict, the environment and climate. Maybe it’s time to let rates normalise? Key TakeawaysRising normalised Bond yields may be a cure rather than a crisis for overly financialised Western Economies.Cheap money distorts asset values, and economic behaviours.Bessent’s pump priming of the Long-End is market pleasing, liquidity enhancing, and confirmation the Fed Put is still there… but it’s like another round of Columbian marching powder at a slowing party.The legacy of 18 years of post 2008 GFC policy has been financial asset inflation, market froth, speculation and undeliverable market narratives that get buried in the expectation low rates will drive markets forever.Financially Sovereign Nations don’t default, but bad, financialised policy leading to inflation may ultimately unravel bond markets and make them unsustainable.Financial speculation, encouraged by policy distortions, distracts from the real-world requirements to enhance defence, infrastructure, housing, energy and resilience.Interesting day in Bonds. As I write this morning, the US Debt Clock (the total the US Government owes) stands at $39.46 trillion – tomorrow it will the crash through $40 trillion.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 19th, 2026“What do you think of the French Revolution?” … “It’s too early to say.”The Chinese will be delighted. Western Economies are increasingly polarised and fractured. The US president calls anyone opposing him a “Communist”. The Right Wing threatens mass deportations, while the new emerging Populist Left is demanding redistribution and equality. Destabilising Western Democracies through fake news and disinformation is destroying the resilience of nations to resist. How should markets react? Key Takeaways:Western societies are increasingly divided into haves and have-nots. Hence the rise of populism on both left and right. That has impacted social and political cohesion – the factors that determine resilience, a critical national-security asset.The West is already at war – fake news, disinformation, propaganda, sabotage and cyber-attacks are undermining stability and resilience.The costs to counter hostile nations will be enormous in terms of resources required. Industrial capacity in the west has been neglected. Defence depends on rebuilding capacity, supply chains, labour and skills, and logistical depth. Money is tight after years of QE and welfare spending.The financial markets are confused about defence – it’s a critical part of the infrastructure of democracy, but many institutional investors still regard it as “incompatible with responsible investing”!Born in the early 1960s, I am one of a fortunate generation.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 18th, 2026 “Turns out you didn’t need a war to destroy the economy…”19 months of Donald J Trump have been extraordinary – the unravelling of alliances, the forever war with Iran, and the belated discovery that financial clout doesn’t translate into geopolitical power. While the Mid-terms may make Trump a lame-duck, the consequences of Trump will hamstring the USA for decades and colour a new economic reality. Key TakeawaysMarkets are making a mistake if they think Trump is just a temporary noise and aberration. The consequences of the Trump era could take decades to correct and will be very significant on the dollar order of markets.Trump has squandered American’s real global strength – its alliances. From the Gulf, The China Seas, to Europe, nations are now uncertain of America’s reliability and credibility.Half of America’s ambassadorial posts are vacant. Many others have been filled with presidential cronies.Financial supremacy is not the same as industrial supremacy – dollars can’t be turned into skilled labour, new ships, planes, tanks or missiles overnight.China has time on its side. Its’ proxies: Iran, Russia and North Korea, can force America to consume war stocks at rates it can’t replace. China wins if America is exhausted before it has to do anything.Yesterday was an interesting one for Trump watchers. The American President pulled the USA out of planned military exercises with South Korea – citing his great relationship with Kim the Plump of North Korea. Then he threatened to bomb Oman if it gets in the way of his deal with Iran. What deal?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 17th, 2026“Euphoria one day, the sound of banks crashing the next…”The factor that’s enabled the extraordinary success and longevity of the AI bubble has been the willingness of the markets to finance it. What happens if the liquidity machine driving AI were to suddenly stop? As the limits of bond markets, private credit, and using insurance companies to park risk, become increasingly apparent – what would a liquidity event do to current markets? Ouch!Key Takeaways:Equities and bonds are diverging. Equities think the party continues. Bonds believe inflation and higher rates are nailed on. They can’t both be rightLiquidity if the key factor driving markets – not belief in AI. If it dries up, then the whole market wobbles.A Liquidity Event is probably hiding in plain sight – perhaps a US treasury auction that goes awry, or an insurance company taking a thumping on a credit loss.Risk has not disappeared – it has been transferred from the banking sector to the asset management sector.Because investors think Elon Musk will make a digital data centre work doesn’t make it a fact – until, maybe, he does.Markets are neither smart nor clever.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 14th, 2026“The winner is often the team that makes the least mistakes.”Markets tend to regard Populist Politics as a threat. They risk destabilisation, dent stability and raise questions about competency. Although Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election, his brand is badly damaged and that puts Reform in trouble. The question is whether the traditional parties can regain electoral prominence and put in place the necessary policies to repair Broken Britain’s infrastructure and finances – and attract investment.Key TakeawaysFarage won the Clacton by-election, but his political brand may be damaged beyond repair.The high-tide of UK political populism may have passed – but the resentments behind its appeal, and which drove Brexit, still remain unaddressed.The challenge is now on traditional parties to deliver – how will they solve the multiple issues around Broken Britain?Sounder politics may put government finances on a stronger footing.Early Friday Morning we learnt Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK populist Reform Party, won the much-derided Clacton By-Election. He scored more than double the votes of his closest political rival – Count Binface, a joke candidate.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 13th, 2026“Complexity does not eliminate risk – it simply hides it in plain sight.”The AI infrastructure build out already dominates credit market funding. Now Nvidia will effectively securitise its chips to its market though a panel of private capital markets firms that lend it credibility. The worry is complex and appealing deal structures will simply hide the risks inherent in AI – and increase the likelihood of a correlated crash when something inevitably breaks. Key takeawaysFinancial complexity will make AI easier to finance – but it does not change the economic risks.The securitisation of Nvidia chips has the potential to accelerate the AI boom – but comes with increased correlation risks.Nvidia is “guilty” of circular financing – funding its customers to buy its chips and using the markets to absorb the risks.There are questions about chip longevity – how soon will they become obsolete or be replaced by competitors?The degree to which Nvidia risks now links hyperscalers, datacentres, energy, water, and the AI industry is enormous, and could destabilise the economy in a crisis. There are multiple points of potential failure.What’s not to like about the new Nvidia $500 bln Chip Funding Programme?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 10th, 2026“When the evil of a snowflake in June could still be the source of relief…” 2026 looks likely to be the warmest year ever. Oceans are charged with energy to drive ever larger storm systems. Wildfires and droughts are ravaging the land. What if this is only the beginning? What if the climate is about to stage a chaotic breakout? Just how resilient will humanity be to a war with an implacable enemy that will give no quarter? What might it mean for the economy?Key TakeawaysHumanity is ingenious and great at innovating – which has historically made us robust and resilient to the challenge of conflict.Nations can win wars through force or diplomacy, but no one can negotiate with physics to turn around Climate Change.Defence and Climate Mitigation are linked – defence against aggression, and protection from a changing environment are economic costs.The economic consequences of climate change will be huge – and therefore tremendous economic opportunities.The big themes will include water, cooling, energy, food, drought and resilient infrastructure.Climate mitigation may be a war that is never won, but one we learn to live with.The path of Human economic/technological advancement, sadly, has largely been a story of how we adapt, innovate and rise to conflict.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 10th, 2026“When the evil of a snowflake in June could still be the source of relief…” 2026 looks likely to be the warmest year ever. Oceans are charged with energy to drive ever larger storm systems. Wildfires and droughts are ravaging the land. What if this is only the beginning? What if the climate is about to stage a chaotic breakout? Just how resilient will humanity be to a war with an implacable enemy that will give no quarter? What might it mean for the economy?Key TakeawaysHumanity is ingenious and great at innovating – which has historically made us robust and resilient to the challenge of conflict.Nations can win wars through force or diplomacy, but no one can negotiate with physics to turn around Climate Change.Defence and Climate Mitigation are linked – defence against aggression, and protection for a changing environment are economic costs.The economic consequences of climate change will be huge – and therefore tremendous economic opportunities.The big themes will include water, cooling, energy, food, drought and resilient infrastructure.Climate mitigation may be a war that is never won, but one we learn to live with.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge August 7th, 2026“Debt to GDP is a distraction – ask how it got so high and look at system to understand its’ fragilities.”The real strength of the US economy is not its military or the dollar’s exorbitant privilege, but the depth of its capital markets - which have financed the most successful economy in history. The risk is not how large the US deficit is, but how sustainable are America’s capital markets to mounting fiscal pressures, market shifts and geopolitical forces?LINK TO PODCASTKEY TAKEAWAYS:$40 trillion of National Debt is not the problem. It’s a symptom of government.The strength of the USA’s capital markets allowed the economy to overcome traditional debt/GDP hinderances to growth.Ultra-low interest rates distorted financial asset markets leading to changed market psychologies such as risk appetite for speculation.The market is less experienced and resilient than it thinks.US Treasuries underly the strength of the capital markets – but are increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical events, changing global trade and the dollar.There is a growing danger diminishing political credibility will impact confidence in capital markets.Sometime in the next few days the USA’s national debt will smash through $40 trillion dollars.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 6th, 2026 “The nature of poverty is to disempower and distract…”The tide of American Politics has turned dramatically extreme in recent days. The narrative is no longer about why Trump is haemorrhaging electoral support but has shifted to whether the Democrats can unite to win the Midterms in November and present a credible challenge to Trump’s MAGA successor in the 2028 presidential election. The coming gladiatorial contest between Right and Left populists will be watched closely by concerned global investors. Key TakeawaysUS Mid-terms in November will be contentious and polarising, raising long-term doubts.MAGA will fight a scare campaign on basis “Progressive Socialist” Democrats are Radical Left Islamic/communist stooges.Progressives and Democrats will campaign based on Trump’s multiple failures.Global markets will become increasingly fearful of polarisation, populism and rising US political instability.Neither party will do much to stem the accelerating budget deficit, the decline in US hegemonic power, or the risk that the dollar’s status is diminished.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 5th, 2026 “I spent it all on fast boats, fast cars and fast women, and squandered the rest…” As we fearfully watch the markets as the liabilities and exaggerations of AI threaten to unravel, or ponder what games arch-manipulator Scotty Bessant is playing with the Yen… there are times to sit back and wonder what life is really all about? The answer is in doing what makes you happy. In my case its sailing… Instead of trying to explain markets, let me run through how the yacht I was sailing just won Vintage Class at the 200th Cowes Week Sailing Regatta. Key takeaways:A well-prepared yacht, a crew that know their jobs, and the ambition to win.The importance of a plan and communicating it.Being adaptable, eyes in and out the boat, and prepared for the “punch in the mouth” moment.Not being surprised when surprised. Taking advantages of opportunities and not making mistakes.Win by enjoying yourself.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 31st, 2026“Judge me by how many times I fell down and got right back up again.”Fifty years of political dither leaves the UK looking broken. Faced with massive constrains from taxation and bond markets, there are limited choices from tinkering with spending while trying to look good enough ahead of the next election. Britain needs something more radical – and a complete reform of the system and process. Key Takeaways The steepness of yield curves reflects not only inflation concerns, but rising doubts on political stability.Long-term sustainability of bond markets relies on political credibility.The UK’s major problem is not political policy – but the bureaucracy and process around it.Lubricate the wheels of the economy by fixing the process and it will work better.Housing could be a great example of how to boost the economy.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 29th, 2026 - AI is dead. Long Live AI. “Remember…. All I am offering is the truth. Nothing more.”Markets are all-a-wobble as the AI revolution morphs from a picks and shovels Klondike into a “who is going to make most money” proposition. About time. Who will be the winners and losers in the long-term. In the short-term there is going to be pain and losses as the current high-water retreats. Key takeaways this morning:Apple becomes No 1 Stock because it stood still.Winners will be firms that best integrate AI into their business and boost the bottom line.Losers will stem from leverage plays, collateral and capacity issues as the market continues to evolve and shift tracks.AI boom is not just a Tech story – it’s also geopolitical as China is set to take large part of market.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 27th, 2026“Are investment returns more important than security?”The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets.The protection of the State is the primary duty of all governments. It is in the interest of all participants in the economy that conflict is minimised – and the only way to discourage aggression is to be prepared to fight. It is therefore an area to invest in.There is a really interesting article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, an interview with the CEO of Border to Coast, the UK’s largest pension fund. Rachel Elwell has £120 bln to invest on behalf of its pension savers – local authority funds that represent the employees of 18 local government pension schemes (LGPS) from Cumbria across the North to the Tyne, and down the East Coast to Sussex. She wants to invest local.  Meanwhile, new Premier Andy Burnham has been getting a tough time, being asked difficult questions about what his No 10 North is going to achieve. The Torygraph basically says Burnham is guilty of treachery for even thinking about moving jobs to Madchester.Aye… back when I were a lad….You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 24th, 2026“Regime Change usually leads to chaos.”The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about. I predict the coming three months will become increasingly “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word.There was a clear judder moment yesterday felt around global markets as the scale of the Iran War reversal became clear. It’s a wild fire that won’t stay out. It’s widened to include the Houthis threating the Red Sea choke point, the Bab-el-Mandeb, pushing oil back over $100. Its triggered renewed fears of inflation and supply chain dislocation. Interest rates are now expected to rise – at a time when the driver of the current market strength; the AI infrastructure capital free-for-all looks to be slowing. Stock markets slid and bond yields rose.That loud bang you heard might have been the AI Bubble popping.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd July 2026 “There is only one thing worse than having too little money, and that is having too much.”It’s a wake up and smell the coffee sort of morning in the AI markets. AI is here to stay. Everyone is using it. Why are prices tanking? It’s about competition, adoption and data sovereignty. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? How did it get so huge so fast? That’s a question about overly cheap liquidity and speculation, which is why Tesla’s numbers are so interesting. Yesterday Google confirmed the pace of its AI infrastructure spend will increase to $205 bln dollars next year. Second quarter income hit $112 bln, but it’s eaten into free-cash flow to the tune of negative $6bln while raising more debt, to “capitalise on the AI opportunity,” said the CFO. Exactly what is that opportunity?The other hyperscalers will say much the same thing when they report on Thursday next week. Collectively the four hyperscalers are expected to spend upwards of three-quarters of a trillion dollars next year on data centres, networks, energy, water and chips. The rest of the AI sector reports next month, when we’ll learn more about adoption and the picks and shovels of the current investment Klondike. Collectively they are taking so much liquidity out the capital markets bond analysts believe the scale of the AI build-out underlies the current steepness of the US yield curve – the AI spend is “crowding out” the US government. It is the biggest private investment programme in global history.But suddenly it feels a little wobbly. What comes next in AI?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 22nd, 2026“Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss…”Regime Change occurred in the UK with relatively a few headless corpses left on the field of political failure… Burham is juggling with talent, spending and tax constraints, to maintain confidence. To succeed he needs to get radical. Social Housing is one avenue to growth he could pull off, and it could be funded off-balance sheet. The UK ain’t finished yet! We are at a very interesting point in the markets… with so many potential flashpoints threatening to erupt into crises – which will prove minor speedbumps? What will be the consequences as the Iran crisis deepens with the Houthis about to open a second front in the Red Sea? What would a full-blown reversal of the AI narrative do to the US economy as the new Chinese Open-Weight models threaten to overturn the expectations around adoption, profits and spending?All Topics for later this week as I catch up from a brief sailing break.Let’s start with matters close to home in the UK where our fractured politics have become a case-study in topsy-turvy modern politics. Will the new “improved” Burnham Labour V2.1 regime make it any more successful than the already forgotten Starmer/Reeves effort?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, July 2026 “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist revels in it; the realist adjusts the sails.”There may be multiple storms and whirlpools on the horizon, but the market remains convinced it will weather them all. That’s a sign of dangerous times. There are times to let the boat run free, and times to trim the sails and slow before something breaks with catastrophic consequences: will it be the AI Bubble, Debt, Iran & Oil, or a No-See-Um? Sorry for all the sailing allusions today, but we’re sailing for home after a fantastic week on the Solent. Well done Spain! How did Trump stay awake? I didn’t.You need to be an optimist to play this market. And an optimist you need to be, because market returns are not based on the brilliance of your own utterly brilliant analysis, but on what the whole herd of the market collectively believes – which is “nothing to overly worry about”. Contrarians are only right when the crowd is proved wrong – which doesn’t happen as much as it should (for reasons discussed below.) The best investors are the ones who can strip out the crowd’s noise – often by taking long-term “patient” views on the basis even the market crowd cannot resist the long-term consequences of financial gravity.I’ve been thinking about it while sailing in the bright sunshine weather on the South Coast of England. I constantly see parallels between reading the markets and the tau of using the weather and tides to drive the boat.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 16th, 2026 “Oh, would some power give us the gift to see ourselves as others see us…”In the past 15 years the US economy has left Europe in the rear-view mirror. While America booms, Europe appears to be flatlining. The question is why? Americans say it’s entirely Europe’s fault: bad policies, failing politics, and lack of unity. However, the consequences of the (as yet unresolved) European Sovereign debt crisis triggered by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the speedbump.This morning’s quote is from Robert Burns. It’s from “To a Louse”, which is very apt for this Morning’s Porridge. Sometimes we just don’t know how stupid, daft or misguided we are. Many of us are too thin-skinned to listen. Others take criticism with a pinch of salt – railing back against those who find fault on the basis our detractors are often blind hypocrites! But it’s worth listening to what folk say about us… even when it hurts.Recently an American Hedge Fund chum lambasted myself and an audience of Europeans for Europe’s failure to match US growth over the last 15 years – back then the two continents were about even in terms of per-capita GDP. Europe’s share of Global GDP has since tumbled from 30% to 17%. US GDP per capita is now double Europe’s. The USA is leading the innovation of tech and has become far more productive than Europe. My chum made some painful observations on European policy mistakes and explained the data. His point was simple – Europe should stop blaming Trump for its’ problems and focus on the internal reasons it is failing.It was one of these moments to listen and ask why it happened. So, I did listen. Europe has failed in many ways.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 13th, 2026 – Is Norway the model other economies should follow?“There is a huge benefit coming from a small country like Norway.”C’mon. England won, but Norway was sparkling. It’s a genuine shame they are out the World Cup, but didn’t they do well? There is much that Norway’s successful blend of capitalist social democracy could teach the rest of the West. Most countries squander their abilities and resources – not Norway.I’m notionally on holiday this week... but I will be writing brief comments on whatever amuses and intrigues me while sailing…This morning… Norway.I agree with the England manager Thomas Tuchel’s assessment of Saturday night’s Norway match. England were sloppy, and they were lucky – lucky to have Jude Bellingham so focused and skilled. On Wednesday England face Argentina as marginal favourites – the probability markets say between 52%-57% likely the Three Lions will reach the final. Messi vs Bellingham? Atlanta will be a marginally better venue that the Maimi pressure cooker. I have been relearning the chords for Wonderwall on my guitar!But Norway have been the absolute stars of the tournament. There may be a lesson in their success.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 10th, 2026 – What if the AI Bubble Fails to Deliver?“Expectations are the root of all heartache…”The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change? What do Alcohol, Tobacco, Umpty Candy, Cannabis, Gambling, Fentanyl, Bloomberg and AI have in common?They were all “discovered” or invented by folk believing they would do good – but were monetised by profiteers who realised how addictive and mind numbing they were likely to be… I was thinking about this yesterday and realised that even an old abacus and pebbles chap like myself uses AI to make my day simpler and faster. My chum Claude can assemble data and facts on markets and targets faster than ever I could myself.But, if I had to pay more than the minimal cost I currently pay, I’d be struggling. And we all know current cost and future costs of AI will be oceans apart. Users will not get rich. The providers of AI services… might.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 9th, 2026 – Why I’d be voting for Binny MacBinface!“The problem with political jokes is that they get elected…”The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of Trump. The Crypto and graft entanglements that envelop him have shattered what made him so successful. Farage is no longer one of us. He is Them.It’s 10-years since the UK’s Natural Environment Council decided it be terwibbly democratic to let the Great British Public choose the name of its new polar research vessel. Someone suggested “Boaty MacBoatface” and everyone thought it a wonderful giggle. Naturally the comedy name won the popular vote… but the thought of the UK’s territorial ambitions being represented around the Southern Oceans by Boaty MacBoatface was too much for the British Antarctic Survey who would operate the vessel. A compromise was reached. The ship was named the Sir David Attenborough after a genuine national treasure.  Since the ship and the drone submersible given the Boaty MacBoatface moniker were launched in 2020 they’ve done sterling research work.The great British Public like nothing more than a good old-fashioned belly-laugh at the expense of the establishment. Which leads me to wonder if Nigel Farage has just made a massive Binny MacBinface error.Wouldn’t it be funny if he loses the Clacton By-Election to Count Binface – the comedy successor to the Monster Raving Looney Party?  

Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 8th, 2026: Is this the End of Nato? “Trump is America’s answer to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, weakening a superpower he meant to strengthen.”NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolitics to an enormous degree. The deepening Atlantic rift puts the need for European defence, sovereignty and resilience right at the top of the priority list. Will this week’s Ankara NATO summit be remembered as the moment NATO ruptured?The summit is heading for the rocks. The strongest and most successful military alliance and economic alignment in global history is cracked. If/when it splinters into broken shards, it will be the definitional end to the era of growth and prosperity that defined the American era.The end of the transatlantic economy will have massive consequences for global trade, markets, and geopolitical alliances. Every investor should be factoring in the probabilities it may happen with their portfolio structures in terms of bonds and tech. It will trigger a rethink/reset of literally every single aspect of modern societies in terms of who controls what, supply chains, and strategic sovereignty as “the pond” becomes a “sundering sea”.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 7th, 2026: Overturn this.“Some people believe Football is a matter of life and death. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.”What Football fans would not want Donald Trump supporting their team? Who would say no to Trump’s superpower to reverse any referee decision? His intervention into the World Cup leaves the rest of the world shaking its collective head in disbelief. Another reason to laugh at America. These things have consequences. When is America going to wake up? “Overturn this…”The Belgian Football Association comment on beating the USA last night said it all. Overturn this.Donald Trump has an unsurpassed ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The World Cup was on course to be a massive Soft Power win for America. Fans may have been fleeced by FIFA, the official ticket tout, but generally they’ve loved it. Some of the games have been fantastic. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 6th, 2026“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist…”England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s happening, that we fight it, and acknowledge our strengths and weaknesses, and that unity wins! “C’mon England!”Not words you would ever expect a Scotsman to say…. “Gentlemen in England still abed shall think themselves accursed they were not there (in front of their tellies at 3 am) and hold their manhood cheap while any speaks that watched them upon the bloody field in Mexico…” Well done, England! Beating Mexico 3-2!Of course I did not watch. (Why would I? In the real world I support two teams: Scotland and whoever is playing England!) I expected to wake up to the news England’s hearts had been ceremonially hacked out and their bodies cast down the steps of the pyramid that is the Azteca. Nope. The World Cup is getting interesting. Bring on the Nogs! Engerland..! Engerland..! and we all like Vindaloo… maybe even in the Saracen’s Head in Glasgow? (maybe not…) Time to support the Auld Enemy!Meanwhile, one of my great chums found himself on the front page of the Times this weekend. Steve has erected a piece of the Berlin Wall in his back garden. Lefty that I am, I consider the Berlin Wall to be a monument to the success of Free Markets, Democracy and Freedom. A similar chunk stands outside the Imperial War Museum as a reminder of who won the Cold War – a bloodless war the West won by outcompeting the Soviets economically.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 3rd, 2026 “Reorganising the civil service is like drawing a knife through a bowl of marbles.”Compare and contrast the USA and Britain. The new country and the old. Our problems are not in our inventiveness, our skills or our people, but in how our societies work. We suffer from Politics that don’t govern, Businesses that don’t share, and Bureaucracies that don’t deliver. These are problems of late-stage democracies in need of a reset. Politicians keep promising – maybe one day one of them will actually make changes!Happy Birthday America!Have a great party! Celebrate a quarter millennium of awesomeness! Across the pond in Europe we sincerely mean that. We have much to thank the USA for and much to be proud of. Britain’s finest sailed the ocean to the new world and forged a nation. It was a reaction to a far-away tyrant’s actions, founded on the basis all men are created equal and may only be ruled with the consent of the governed. The new state attracted Europe’s huddled masses giving it the strength and diversity to thrive. Today it is the most powerful nation on Earth – as its’ leader keeps reminding us. The USA has worked pretty well – thus far!You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 2nd, 2026 – We need a revolution in Defence“Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.”The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Tec evolution in the wake of the Ukraine War highlights how the next war will likely be fought. It’s time for a complete overhaul on the defence establishment’s approach to rearmament.(PODCAST TO FOLLOW)I sometimes wonder if the Houses of Parliament has a window cleaner? What do our politicians and civil service mandarins see when they gaze out at the geopolitical weather? They know the roof is leaking, but to fix it will be expensive and the kitty is empty. Why not throw another tarpaulin over it, and hope it doesn’t rain? Such a hope is not a great strategy here in Britain where weather lore says: “how do you know when it’s going to rain? Because it’s not raining yet?”Yes. Rain is a metaphor for conflict.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026“It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.”2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain Mantra No 1: “The markets have but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants”. Hey-Ho, and on we go...It’s the first of July, and we are at the half-way stage of 2026 – and hasn’t it been fascinating? I thought it might be interesting to skim through what we expected, what happened, and where we might be headed next. Its worth starting from the premise that markets are not enlightened, all-knowing crystal balls, but simply the sum of weighted stupidity – in other words, expectations are based on hopes, while reality is often the result of mistakes.That said, explaining the whole of the global economy and markets in 2 hours before breakfast and doing my day-job is a tough ask, but there are four very visible market themes that stand out in my mind – and of course, they are all inter-related, and they have all repeated themselves through history. This time it might be different - we live in a very connected world. As someone once said: “A toddler having a tantrum in Washington makes old men smile in Beijing.”You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“He can even quote “The Life of Brian” without sounding like a dalek. How bad can it be?”Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t say is about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity out of London is inspired. Who knows… it might even work!Andy Burnham talked well. He presented well. He smiled. He sounded like he believes in what he is saying. His eyebrows worked overtime as they screamed charisma and engagement. Yesterday was all about Burnham – the real-world Mr Deeds from Manchester who is going to roll up his sleeves, fix Broken Britain and save the Labour Party. Maybe. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning! 

“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.”Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership she could prove a much better choice than other contenders. Who will UK Prime Minister in Waiting Andy Burnham choose to be the next Chancellor the Exchequer? It’s the second most important job in the country – the role of national CFO is critical. It requires a competent politician with a grasp of finance, bonds, taxation, project management, and central banking, but it’s likely Burnham will offer the post to secure the support of political rivals with careers spent in politics rather than commerce. Will it go to Ed Miliband, the least popular minister in a very unpopular cabinet, or has it already been promised to Wes Streeting, former Health Minister, in return from him standing down his own premiership goal in return for the job?I have a suggestion for Burnham. How about Rachel Reeves?That would be a bold call.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 25th, 2026 – The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy“Democracy doesn’t collapse when a ruler lies, it collapses when people stop caring that he lies.”The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with powerful bullies taking all they can while the weakest in society will wither. Is it a film script, or what’s happening now…?LINK TO PODCAST This Morning’s Porridge is a little late because I went for a swim again this morning. Delicious it was! The heat dome over Europe has been extraordinary – but hopefully it will break tonight. The swim gave me some time to think after Scotland’s dismal 3-Nil drubbing by Brazil in the World Cup last night. So, today, something a little different for the Porridge…One of my guilty pleasures over the last few years has been The Boys - a Prime TV series. It’s curious mix of comedy, satire and visceral gore – lots of gore. It makes a Tarantino movie look like a BBC period-drama. Heads explode and bodies are ripped apart every couple of minutes in the most horrible yet surprising ways imaginable. It is sweary, it is improbable, and its utterly compulsive. It is very funny in an urgh sort of a way. The heroes are nearly as bad as the villains. There are lots of in-jokes and references which is great for nerds like me.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“The temperature’s rising, it isn’t surprising, it’s too damn hot.”Are we about to have an Emperor’s New Clothes moment and a return to sane AI valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is real and what is not matters. The trick is to exit the short-term game before the long run outcomes are apparent to everyone.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

"To move a mountain, start with the smaller stones…”The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will happen when the US economy is also past its top, and following the UK into maturity?It feels like a bit of a watch and wait kind of day. The streets are melting in the summer swelter – it’s simply too hot to go to London this morning. The SpaceX IPO has taken a spanking (exactly as predicted), the AI bubble and the debt financing required to make it happen looks poppy, and the market is still digesting the threat of Fed rate hikes. There are times when the best thing to do is simply stop, look and listen, and wonder about the bigger things.Thus, it was that I found myself thinking about the big film of the summer - The Odyssey – the ultimate “Journey” saga. Spoiler Alert: Wiley Odysseus, the King of sea-girt Ithaca, offends the Gods and is punished with 10-years of wandering the Mediterranean, undergoing multiple calamities, before he returns to his wife and (grown up) child, having lost his entire army and crew in the process (and fathering a couple of sons on the way, one of whom will inevitably slay his father in a case of mistaken identity years later.)Last week I was at an event hosted by Looking for Growth (“LFG”) in London, talking about how the UK could ease the funding journey for start-ups. I was there to back up the experience of two successful founders, Chloe Coleman of Vouchsafe and Ben Warner of Electric Twin, with some market context and history. They’ve both led their start-ups through successful funding rounds. (LFG is a cross-party campaign group seeking to reverse decline by promoting growth. They have the good sense to realise it’s as much a societal issue as a simple financing problem.)Today’s founders/entrepreneurs can face as terrible a journey as Odysseus to fund themselves. They have to overcome the barely coherent Cyclops of bureaucracy and regulation, the Giants of Risk Aversion,  the Enchantress sweetly asking them to sell out early or a Funder who transforms your lithe startup into wallowing swine, the lotus promises of money that never materialises, the Siren song of deep pocketed US private equity, and the Scylla or Charybdis of market bubbles and crashes. Even if founders get past the first peril; the definitional seed funding – it might not get any easier on subsequent funding rounds for growth capital if the cruel and pernicious market gods decide to abandon you.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

“The king is dead. Long live the King.”Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask? There is little surprise that Sir Keir Starmer is now expected to resign - setting in motion a transfer of the UK premiership to Andy Burnham, the former Manchester mayor who won his way back into the Houses of Parliament last week. Starmer’s exit is being painted as proof that political instability is now built into the current UK political system - triggering a wall of worry among the commentariat about the Gilts Market and Sterling – what will the markets think of the seventh Premier in 16 years? Will the threat of increased borrowing and spending plans trigger market wobbles? And, how sustainable will the new government be?You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!