Bond Markets Expect Higher Inflation Despite Cooling CPI

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.26%, even as the latest CPI reading fell to 332.6. What does the bond market see that consumer prices aren't capturing? In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the growing disconnect between market-based inflation expectations and official inflation data. With the Fed firmly on hold and the labor market still tight—unemployment at 4.2% and jobless claims at 187,000—we explore whether the bond market is pricing in tariff-driven price pressure, rising oil costs, or a structural shift in inflation dynamics. Recent headlines, from Singapore's surprise tightening to Trump's new global tariff, are adding to the inflation uncertainty. Meanwhile, core PCE is still rising, and average hourly earnings ticked up to $37.60. We connect the dots between these data points and explain why the bond market may be right to be wary. If you listen to one episode that explains why the Fed may be forced to raise rates again despite cooling CPI, this is it. #Economics #FederalReserve #Inflation #BondMarket #CPI #BreakevenInflation #LaborMarket #MonetaryPolicy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroMemo #Fexingo #Tariffs #OilPrices #FedDivided #JoblessClaims #WageGrowth #RealGDP Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo