Breakfast Briefing | 10 June 2026 | Wall Street Warns on Aussie House Prices

Australia's housing market is now drawing the attention of Wall Street. Bank of America has become the latest global institution to forecast a downturn, tipping Sydney and Melbourne prices to fall as much as 8% in 2026.Its economists cite higher mortgage rates weighing on borrowing capacity, alongside Federal Budget changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount dampening investor demand. The bank joins a growing list of forecasters: CBA now expects Sydney to fall 6% and Melbourne 7%, while UBS sees national dwelling values sliding 3–5% over the year ahead.The softening is already visible. Sydney values fell 0.9% in May and Melbourne dropped 0.8%, while Perth led the smaller capitals at 1.5% growth, reinforcing the picture of a multi-speed market. Bank of America expects a relatively short downturn, with momentum turning in early 2027 as RBA easing expectations build.Offshore, China's exports surged 19.4% in May to a record USD 377 billion, a constructive signal for resource demand, even as Chinese oil imports fell to an 8-year low and helped cap crude prices.Markets: AUD 70.6 USc, Australian 10yr bond 4.89%, US 10yr Treasury 4.53%, gold 4,258 US Dollars/oz, WTI just under 88.50 US Dollars/bbl, Bitcoin 62,052 US Dollars. The ASX 200 closed down 0.2%.Full Briefing and source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #HousePrices #PropertyMarket #NegativeGearing #HomeLoans #Investing