Interest.com.au Breakfast Briefing

America's labour market cooled sharply in June, and closer to home Australia posted its first trade deficit since 2018. Here's what overnight markets mean for Australian investors and borrowers.In today's Briefing:US payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June, half the 110,000 expectedFederal Reserve officials now split on the rate path aheadUS factory orders fell 1.3% in MayChina's car industry faces a profit squeeze, pressuring steel demandAustralia's trade balance swung to a 1.7 billion Australian dollar deficitGold at USD 4,106/oz, bitcoin at USD 61,635Read today's full Briefing with all source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/747/us-jobs-report-weak-us-factory-orders-also-weak-worse-after-adjusting-ppi-china#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #RBA #USJobs #FederalReserve #TradeDeficit #Bitcoin #GoldPrice #interestcomau

Markets are sceptical of the rosy outlook from America's new central bank chief. US Treasury yields rose after the Fed signalled price risks had eased, a clear sign of where investors think rates and inflation are really headed.Today's key moves:● US 10 year Treasury yield up to 4.48% after the Federal Reserve's dovish comments● ADP jobs survey soft at +98,000, ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls print● The US will not renew the USMCA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico● China factory activity caps its strongest quarter since 2020● Australian building approvals up 5.3% year on year, though home values fell 0.4% in June, a third straight monthly decline● AUD 69 USc, Gold USD 4,070/oz, Bitcoin USD 60,115 (+3.1%)With Friday's US payrolls report in focus, the labour market data will set the tone for the rate outlook into the second half of the year.Full report with source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/746/eyes-us-non-farm-payrolls-us-crude-stocks-fall-again-reserves-43-year-low-usmca-not#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #FederalReserve #NonFarmPayrolls #BondYields #HousingMarket #Bitcoin

A busy morning offshore, with oil and the yen leading.● Oil continues to ease despite an unresolved Persian Gulf standoff, with the US benchmark at just on USD 69.50/bbl and Brent near USD 73/bbl. A growing Chinese EV share of global car sales is one reason markets see softer crude demand ahead.● The Japanese yen has slipped past 162 to the US dollar, its weakest in 39 years, with a two-month intervention effort failing to stem the slide.● US consumer sentiment disappointed in June. Almost a quarter of respondents now describe jobs as hard to get, the highest reading since early 2021.● German inflation eased to 2.3% in June, helped by lower energy prices.Markets: AUD/USD at 69.2 USc, the Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.72%, the US 10-year Treasury at 4.43%, gold around USD 4,026/oz, and bitcoin at USD 58,325.Full report and all the latest rates at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/742/us-data-mixed-canada-grows-china-marks-time-german-inflation-eases-eyes-yen-rocket-lab#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #OilMarkets #JapaneseYen #GlobalEconomy #FixedIncome #Commodities

Your two-minute wrap of the overnight economic news that matters to Australia.In today's briefing:South Korea commits USD 520 billion with Samsung and SK Hynix to expand AI chipmakingThe US claims a new Middle East truce, though Iran has not confirmed itFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey points to inflation becoming embeddedChina's beef demand set to underpin prices for Australian producersJapan retail sales jump +5.3% year on yearMarkets:AUD/USD: 68.9 UScAustralian 10yr bond: 4.74%US 10yr Treasury: 4.37%Gold: USD 4,022/ozOil (WTI): USD 71/bbl | Brent: USD 73/bblBitcoin: USD 60,319Read the full Briefing with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/741/japanese-retail-rises-south-korea-all-ai-chipmaking-singapore-malaysia-struggle#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #ASX #Markets #Bitcoin #Gold #AIChips

Your daily wrap of the overnight news that matters for the Australian economy.In today's briefing:Australian housing keeps cooling: the softest auction sales period in more than 5 years, with many properties failing to sellFresh clashes near the Strait of Hormuz strain the fragile US and Iran ceasefire, yet oil holds near USD 69/bbl (WTI) and USD 72/bbl (Brent)China industrial profits jump 21% in May from a year earlier, to ¥3.1 trillion, on the AI investment boomECB survey shows year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 3.5%, a 3-month lowMarkets: AUD 69.0 USc, AU 10yr 4.73%, US 10yr 4.37%, gold USD 4,089/oz, Bitcoin USD 59,497Read the full Briefing with all source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/740/tensions-turn-persian-gulf-china-industry-profits-rise-eu-inflation-expectations-ease#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Housing #Oil #China #ECB #Markets

US inflation is back in focus. In today's briefing we cover the data shaping the rate outlook and the Hormuz risk still hanging over oil.In this episode:US headline PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, up from 3.8%Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, lifted to 3.4%Firms are raising prices to recover AI spending, with MacBooks and iPads up 20%US durable goods orders fell sharply, capital goods orders down 21.5% year on yearThe Strait of Hormuz stays fragile after a ship was hit by live-fire, lifting oilAUD/USD at 69.2 UScAustralian 10-year bond yield at 4.73%, US 10-year Treasury at 4.39%Gold at USD 4,032/oz, WTI at USD 71.50/bbl, Brent at USD 75/bblBitcoin at USD 59,377Read the full report with all source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/734/us-inflation-rises-activity-weakens-firms-start-recover-ai-costs-although-there-are#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #PCE #USInflation #Hormuz #OilPrices #Markets

A broad risk-off session, driven by an international agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to send hundreds of tankers and cargoes back into a market where demand is already softening.Australian May CPI eased to 4.0%, a four-month low and below the 4.4% expected. The trimmed mean, however, rose to 3.6%, signalling underlying inflation is still firming.The Hormuz reopening points to lower oil prices ahead, which would help ease imported inflation pressures for Australia.US data came in soft: new home sales fell to 2022 levels, and crude oil stocks have now declined for nine consecutive weeks.The Bank of Japan signalled further rate hikes toward a neutral rate near 2%, with policy currently at 1%.The Australian dollar fell to a seven-month low at 68.9 USc as the rate gap narrows.Markets: AU 10yr 4.72%, US 10yr 4.40%, gold USD 3,978/oz (-USD 152), US crude USD 70.50/bbl, Brent USD 74/bbl, bitcoin USD 59,403 (-4.9%). The ASX 200 closed +0.2%.Full report with source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/733/opening-hormuz-expected-create-new-distortions-us-data-soft-taiwan-data-strong-china#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Oil #Gold #Inflation #Commodities #GlobalMarkets

Commodity currencies are taking the strain. The Australian dollar has fallen to a seven month low of 69.2 USc as markets shift toward pricing a US rate hike, firming the US dollar across the board.Key developments today:● Markets now betting the next move from the US Federal Reserve will be a hike, after a firmer 2 year Treasury auction and a warning from the Chicago Fed president that inflation is "going the wrong way"● US flash factory activity posted its strongest growth in 4 years, but with elevated input prices and the fastest fall in factory jobs since the pandemic● Asian data was strong, with Japan's factories expanding faster and Taiwan's May export orders up +47% on a year ago● Domestically, business activity is nearing stabilisation as services improve, but new orders keep falling, including export orders● The gross value of agricultural production is forecast to fall -5% to AUD 98 bln in 2026-27, with average broadacre farm profit tipped to drop -70% on lower revenue and higher input costsMarkets: AUD 69.2 USc, AU 10yr bond 4.78%, US 10yr Treasury 4.46%, gold USD 4,130/oz, US oil USD 73/bbl, Brent USD 77/bbl, Bitcoin USD 63,388. Wall Street fell, with the S&P 500 down -1.4% and the Nasdaq down -2.2%. The ASX 200 closed Tuesday down -0.3%.Full report with all source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/729/us-data-mixed-markets-fear-rate-hikes-coming-asian-data-very-good-australia-sees-rural#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #FederalReserve #AUD #Commodities #BondYields #Markets

A calmer geopolitical picture is taking some heat out of energy markets this morning, while the local housing story continues to soften.● Swiss talks between the United States and Iran made progress overnight, and the US Treasury agreed to pause enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil for at least 60 days. Oil fell around USD 4, with the US benchmark just under USD 73.50/bbl and Brent at 77.50.● Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains cautious, with more than 400 vessels still waiting on safer insurance terms.● Australia's housing market is cooling, with weekend auction clearance rates below 50% for the first time in six years and Brisbane as low as 33%.● China's foreign direct investment fell more than 8% year to date, its weakest in at least a decade, a notable signal for a key Australian trading partner.● Former US Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan has died at the age of 100.Markets: AUD at 70 USc, Australian 10yr bond at 4.82%, US 10yr Treasury at 4.51%, gold at 4,180 US Dollars, bitcoin at 63,388 US Dollars.Full report with source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/727/us-explores-stablecoin-dominance-greenspan-dies-china-fdi-weakens-again-eu-sentiment#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #OilPrices #ChinaEconomy #FDI #BondYields #Markets

The week ahead will be shaped by the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran keeping the chokepoint closed and US-Iran talks in Geneva struggling for traction. Notably, oil prices eased over the week despite the tension, with US WTI back under USD 77.50/bbl.Key themes today:● Australian data week in focus: CPI 4.3%, jobs +30,000, household spending +4.1%, all feeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate outlook● Federal government extends fuel excise relief to the end of July● US PCE inflation report due, with analysts expecting a May reading close to 4%, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve● China's central bank widely expected to hold its loan prime rates steadyMarket snapshot:● AUD/USD: 70.1 USc (down 80 bps for the week)● AU 10yr bond: 4.81% | US 10yr Treasury: 4.49%● Gold: USD 4,152/oz | WTI: USD 77.50/bbl | Brent: USD 80.50/bbl● Bitcoin: USD 63,124 (up 1.8%)Read the full Briefing with all source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/726/us-iran-talks-chaotic-eyes-us-pce-inflation-canada-loosens-bank-capital-buffers-europe#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarkets #PCEInflation #MonetaryPolicy #FinancialMarkets

Financial markets have largely moved on from the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, but commodity markets are still digesting it. A key US concession gives Iran the ability to charge transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and tanker traffic through the chokepoint is already picking up.The overnight macro picture was mixed. US jobless claims held steady and factory sentiment recovered only modestly, while Canada's producer prices jumped 13.6% year-on-year, driven largely by energy. It was a heavy night for central banks following the US Fed: the Bank of England held at 2.75% with two members dissenting for a hike, Indonesia raised again to 5.75% to support its currency, and Switzerland, Norway and Sweden all held.For Australia, the 10-year bond yield rose to 4.79%, keeping local borrowing costs firm and leaving the Reserve Bank of Australia with limited room to move. The US 10yr Treasury slipped to 4.44%. Wall Street rebounded (S&P 500 +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.5%) while the ASX 200 eased 0.6%. Gold fell to USD 4,229/oz, US crude held under USD 75.50/bbl, the AUD softened to 70.2 USc, and Bitcoin dropped 5.1% to USD 62,623.Full analysis and source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/723/us-iran-sign-mou-leaving-iran-stronger-us-data-mixed-canada-ppi-leaps-many-central-bank#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Hormuz #OilPrices #CentralBanks #BondYields #Bitcoin

The US Federal Reserve has shifted its stance. After holding its policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, it removed its easing bias and signalled the next move will be a hike. That marks a clear change in direction, and markets responded immediately.Today's key developments:● The Fed lifted its core inflation forecast to 3.3% by year end and dropped its easing bias● Wall Street fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq down 1.3%● Bond yields rose, with the US 10-year Treasury at 4.49% and the Australian 10-year at 4.77%● US crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels, the sharpest draw in eight weeks, leaving strategic reserves at a 40-year low● Oil climbed, with US crude near USD 76.50/bbl and Brent near USD 79/bbl● Japan exports rose 17% and Singapore exports surged 38% to a record high, pointing to healthy global tradeFor Australia, a more hawkish Fed widens the rate gap and adds pressure on the Aussie dollar, now steady at 70.7 USc. A softer currency raises the cost of imported goods and fuel, which feeds into local inflation and the RBA's outlook.Full report with source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/721/us-walks-away-hormuz-worse-position-us-fed-shifts-hiking-bias-us-crude-oil-stocks-dive#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #OilPrices #GlobalTrade #Markets

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% overnight in a unanimous decision that markets had fully priced. The hold arrives as Australian manufacturing momentum stalls into mid-year, with conditions slipping back to neutral and the Middle East conflict reigniting cost pressures across the sector, keeping inflation risk in view.Offshore, attention shifts to the US Federal Reserve, which meets tomorrow. Markets are pricing no change, while some economists expect a hike as Kevin Warsh takes the reins. The decision lands against softer US data, with May housing starts down 8.7% year-on-year, the weakest reading outside the pandemic in 17 years.In Asia, the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, its highest in 31 years, while China delivered a mixed picture: industrial production beat expectations, but retail sales fell for the first time since 2022.Markets snapshot: AUD at 70.7 USc, the Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.78%, the US 10-year Treasury at 4.42%, gold up to USD 4,341/oz, oil down to USD 75.50/bbl, and bitcoin at USD 65,878.Read the full report with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/718/us-buy-its-way-out-iran-conflict-us-data-weaker-canada-housing-turns-china-data-mixed#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #BankOfJapan #ChinaEconomy #Markets

A US-Iran deal to end the war drove a relief rally across global markets overnight, lifting equities and pulling oil sharply lower. Commodity markets remain more cautious, with risk premiums expected to take months to retreat.For Australia, the standout is cheaper oil, which eases some of the imported inflation pressure the RBA has been watching. The Australian dollar firmed to 70.8 USc and the 10-year bond yield edged up to 4.85%.Offshore, US data turned wobbly. Factory output stalled in May at just 1.4% above year-ago levels, a New York factory survey came in soft, and builder sentiment stayed weak on affordability. Canada looked more resilient, with manufacturing sales up 4.2% in April, and India posted record exports of USD 45.2 billion, up 18% year on year. In Europe, the US is pressuring France over its 3% digital services tax.Market snapshot: US 10-year Treasury at 4.46%, gold up USD 99 to USD 4,321/oz, US oil under USD 80.50/bbl, Bitcoin at USD 66,868. Wall Street closed higher with the S&P 500 up 1.8% and the Nasdaq up 2.9%, and the ASX 200 finished Monday up 1.2%.Read the full report with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/716/relief-rally-underway-hormuz-deal-us-data-wobbly-canada-data-resilient-india-exports#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Markets #OilPrices #Geopolitics #BondYields #Economy

A defining week for global monetary policy is underway, with three major central bank decisions due in quick succession.The Reserve Bank leads tomorrow, where no change is expected from the current 4.35% cash rate. On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve meets for the first time under new chair Kevin Warsh, with markets expecting a hold at 3.75% even as US consumer prices run at a three-year high of 4.2%. The Bank of Japan is also tipped to raise its rate by 25 basis points to 1%, which would mark its highest setting since 1995.Geopolitics remains in play, with Israeli strikes on Beirut stalling talk of a Middle East deal and keeping oil prices and inflation risk firmly in view.Markets this morning: the Australian dollar at 70.5 USc, the AU 10-year bond yield at 4.82%, the US 10-year Treasury at 4.49%, gold at USD 4,222/oz, oil just under USD 85/bbl (Brent at USD 87.50/bbl), and bitcoin at USD 63,655.Read the full report with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/715/wars-bubbles-dominate-markets-eyes-fed-bofj-and-rba-china-bank-lending-restrained-us#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #BankOfJapan #Markets #Economy

US consumer inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April and its highest since April 2023, driven largely by rising fuel costs. With Washington now promising further military strikes on Iran and an expected deal off the table, oil markets are bracing for deeper disruption. US crude rose to just under USD 91.50/bbl, with Brent near USD 94.50/bbl.The inflation story is global. Japan's producer prices rose 6.3% over the year to May, the fastest since the pandemic eased, while China's factory-gate prices jumped 5.8% even as consumer inflation stayed subdued at 1.2%. Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting.For Australia, the timing is awkward. The emergency petrol tax concession is set to expire at the end of June, and without an extension it would add to inflation just as global fuel costs climb, keeping pressure on the RBA. The local 10-year bond yield starts the day at 4.90%.Markets at a glance: AUD 70.1 USc, US 10-year Treasury 4.54%, gold down to USD 4,098/oz, and bitcoin steady at USD 61,781.Read the full Briefing with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/709/us-trapped-iran-quagmire-us-inflation-rises-oil-stocks-retreat-canada-holds-japan-ppi#BreakfastBriefing #USInflation #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #RBA #OilMarkets #BondYields #GlobalEconomy #Inflation #interestcomau

Australia's housing market is now drawing the attention of Wall Street. Bank of America has become the latest global institution to forecast a downturn, tipping Sydney and Melbourne prices to fall as much as 8% in 2026.Its economists cite higher mortgage rates weighing on borrowing capacity, alongside Federal Budget changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount dampening investor demand. The bank joins a growing list of forecasters: CBA now expects Sydney to fall 6% and Melbourne 7%, while UBS sees national dwelling values sliding 3–5% over the year ahead.The softening is already visible. Sydney values fell 0.9% in May and Melbourne dropped 0.8%, while Perth led the smaller capitals at 1.5% growth, reinforcing the picture of a multi-speed market. Bank of America expects a relatively short downturn, with momentum turning in early 2027 as RBA easing expectations build.Offshore, China's exports surged 19.4% in May to a record USD 377 billion, a constructive signal for resource demand, even as Chinese oil imports fell to an 8-year low and helped cap crude prices.Markets: AUD 70.6 USc, Australian 10yr bond 4.89%, US 10yr Treasury 4.53%, gold 4,258 US Dollars/oz, WTI just under 88.50 US Dollars/bbl, Bitcoin 62,052 US Dollars. The ASX 200 closed down 0.2%.Full Briefing and source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #HousePrices #PropertyMarket #NegativeGearing #HomeLoans #Investing

American one-year inflation expectations eased to 3.2% in May, retreating from April's two and a half year high of 3.5%, and sitting comfortably below the 3.8% actual inflation print. Encouraging on the surface, though the same New York Fed survey shows households expect their finances to deteriorate, and regional small businesses remain deeply pessimistic about 2026.The international picture is mixed. Japan's March quarter GDP grew 1.8%, ahead of the 1.3% forecast, with bank lending up 5.7% in May. China told a story of two halves: excavator sales jumped 36% on infrastructure momentum, while car sales fell 22% for an eighth consecutive monthly decline.In the Persian Gulf, 100 days into the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran appears to be successfully tolling transits, with just ten ships crossing in 24 hours.Closer to home, the ASX was closed for the public holiday, but the Australian 10-year bond yield rose 5 basis points to 4.96%, keeping pressure on fixed borrowing costs.Markets: AUD/USD 70.5 USc | US 10yr Treasury 4.55% | Gold 4,333 US Dollars/oz | US crude 91 USD/bbl | Bitcoin 63,416 US Dollars | S&P 500 +0.4% | Nasdaq +0.9%Read the full Briefing, with all source links, at interest.com.au:https://www.interest.com.au/economy/704/us-inflation-expectations-ease-smes-turn-glum-japan-improves-china-excavator-sales-roar#BreakfastBriefing #USInflation #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #RBA #GlobalEconomy #ChinaEconomy #JapanEconomy #BondMarkets #interestcomau

US non-farm payrolls delivered a 172,000 jobs gain in May, more than double the 82,000 expected, but the composition tells a more nuanced story. Hospitality added 70,000, local government 55,000, and healthcare 35,000, while manufacturing, IT and construction were flat to lower. Lower-paid jobs rose, higher-paid roles shrank.Combined with the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil holding above USD 90/bbl, markets have shifted to a risk-off stance, pricing in earlier Federal Reserve rate hikes to pre-empt embedded inflation. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.54%, up 11 bps for the week.Canada also surprised, adding 88,000 jobs against expectations of 10,000, with unemployment falling to 6.6%. That may give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates at its decision later this week.Elsewhere, China's foreign exchange reserves reached USD 3.44 trillion, the highest since October 2015, and India's Q1 growth came in at 7.8%, ahead of the 7.2% forecast. In contrast, Ireland's economy contracted more than 12% in Q1, dragging the EU's overall GDP lower, driven by a 27% slump in its multinational-dominated sectors.For Australian borrowers, the upward drift in global yields is the key signal. The Australian 10-year bond yield sits at 4.91%, up 6 bps for the week.Read the full Briefing: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/702/chinas-reserves-11-year-high-india-growth-stays-strong-us-payrolls-rise-not-productive#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #USFed #BondYields #GlobalMarkets #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy

Markets are pricing in optimism that doesn't yet match the facts on the ground. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed today despite hopes of a US–Iran accommodation, with Hezbollah rejecting the framework and Israeli strikes continuing in Lebanon.The geopolitical pressure is showing up in trade flows. Global container freight rates jumped 23% in a single week, driven largely by outbound China routes, while bulk cargo rates eased slightly.In the US, employers announced 97,000 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since January and the worst May since the pandemic. The tech sector dominates the losses, with AI displacement cited as the primary driver. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is expected to show a modest 85,000 net gain.The OECD has called out China's steel subsidies, urging coordinated action to protect global capacity. Expect a fresh round of defensive trade barriers in response.Markets snapshot: Gold up USD 41 to USD 4,478/oz. US oil down USD 4 to USD 92/bbl. Brent at USD 94.50/bbl. AUD at 71.4 USc. Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.91%. Bitcoin down 4.3% to USD 63,013. ASX 200 closed down 1.1%.Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/700/no-middle-east-resolution-despite-market-hopes-us-data-mixed-eu-retail-soft-freight#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #OilPrices #Bitcoin #GlobalTrade #ASX200 #FinancialMarkets

Energy markets are once again front and centre. With the Strait of Hormuz closed and clashes in the Persian Gulf intensifying, WTI crude has climbed to just over USD 96/bbl and Brent to USD 98/bbl. American crude stockpiles have now fallen for a sixth consecutive week, and US strategic reserves sit at their lowest in 22 years.Domestically, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported Q1 GDP growth of 2.5% year-on-year, but momentum is fading. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March quarter weighed on household spending, exports fell, and a surge in data centre equipment spending may have accounted for the entire quarterly gain.In the US, the data is mixed. ADP private payrolls rose 122,000 in May — the strongest reading since January 2025 — but both the ISM and S&P Global services PMIs describe a jobless expansion, with firms shedding staff even as new orders grow.The Bank of Japan meets in just over a week, with Governor Ueda signalling rate hikes are firmly on the table to counter rising inflation.Markets: AUD at 71.3 USc, AU 10-year yield at 4.94%, US 10-year at 4.49%, Gold down USD 45 to USD 4,437/oz, Bitcoin off 2.4% at USD 65,847, S&P 500 down 0.5%, ASX 200 up 0.7%.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/698/us-data-mixed-inconsistent-canada-house-prices-fall-japan-assess-rate-hike-china#BreakfastBriefing #InterestComAu #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #OilPrices #GDP #GlobalMarkets #BankOfJapan #EnergyMarkets

A quiet changing of the guard is underway in global finance. Fresh ECB analysis confirms gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest single asset held in foreign reserves, a structural shift with long-term implications for global capital flows.Closer to home, Australia recorded its first trade deficit since 2017 in the March quarter, with mineral exports softening (gold aside) while data centre equipment imports surged.In the US, April job openings hit an 18-month high, but the RCM TIPP sentiment index fell to a 2-year low. The Logistics Managers Index held at its highest reading since the pandemic, with inventory, warehousing and freight costs all accelerating.EU CPI firmed to 3.2% in May, with markets fully pricing ECB action on June 11. China is heading into a bumper wheat harvest while Australian and US growers hesitate amid high fertiliser and fuel costs.Markets: AUD at 71.8 USc, AU 10yr bond at 4.92%, UST 10yr at 4.46%, gold at USD 4,482/oz, US oil near USD 93.50/bbl, Brent at USD 96/bbl, Bitcoin down 5.9% to USD 67,464.Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/694/us-labour-data-upbeat-sentiment-downbeat-china-harvests-eu-inflation-spotlight#BreakfastBriefing #InterestComAu #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #Gold #USTreasuries #ECB #GlobalMarkets #Commodities

American consumers are the most pessimistic on record. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low in May, its third consecutive monthly decline, with petrol prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures doing the damage. Year-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, and long-run expectations have jumped from 3.5% to 3.9%.Meanwhile, the Iran-US standoff in the Persian Gulf is far from resolved. Despite earlier optimism, Trump confirmed over the weekend that a deal is not fully negotiated. With oil at $97 USD/bbl and Canadian producer prices running 11.4% above year-ago levels, global supply chain cost pressures remain significant. Fed Governor Waller's comments that the next move could be a hike, not a cut, add further weight to the hawkish global outlook.For Australia, the week ahead is pivotal. Wednesday's April CPI release and Thursday's household spending data are both expected to come in elevated, with direct implications for the RBA's rate outlook.Full briefing and source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/678/iran-us-deal-proving-hard-close-us-consumers-sentiment-hits-record-low-canada-battlesCheck the latest home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #RBA #interestcomau #USInflation #FederalReserve #IranUSNuclearDeal #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #FinanceNews #MacroEconomics

Australian inflation eased in May, with the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge falling 0.3% on lower transport and fuel costs following the excise tax rollback. The annual rate now sits at 4.4%, offering the RBA a modest data point ahead of its next decision. However, the latest Australian factory PMI shows new orders falling at their sharpest pace since October, while selling price inflation has hit a 45-month high.Globally, the picture is more turbulent. Iran has reportedly suspended communications with Washington and is threatening to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil higher. Factory activity across the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all expanded sharply in May, but growth is being driven largely by stockpiling as firms race to beat rising costs and supply chain delays.Key figures:● AUD at 71.6 USc● Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.90%● US 10-year Treasury at 4.47%● Gold down to USD 4,491/oz● US oil up to USD 91.50/bbl, Brent at USD 94.50/bbl● Bitcoin at USD 71,684, down 2.5%● South Korean exports at record 88,000 million US Dollars, up 53% year-on-yearFull report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/691/hormuz-unresolved-global-factories-expand-stockpiling-korean-exports-impress-australian#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Inflation #OilPrices #Hormuz #GlobalMarkets #SupplyChain

The long-awaited correction in Australian housing is underway, and it is showing up first in our two largest markets.● Sydney average prices dipped 0.9% in May, taking the three-month fall to 2.1%● Melbourne dropped 0.8% in May, with a 2.3% quarterly decline● Auction volumes are at six-year lows as transaction activity retreats● Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth continue to push higherHigher mortgage rates, stretched affordability, and recent Budget changes to how capital gains tax is applied are combining to cool demand in Sydney and Melbourne. The RBA will be watching closely as the housing channel begins to transmit tighter policy more visibly.On the retirement front, industry forecasts point to 2.5 million Australians entering retirement over the next decade. Savers now believe they need 1 million AUD to retire comfortably, yet average balances for those aged 60 to 65 are just 400,000 AUD for men and 315,000 AUD for women, raising real questions about adequacy.Offshore, China's official manufacturing PMI showed the factory sector at a steady state, with services returning to modest growth. In the Gulf, ships are slowly exiting the Strait of Hormuz but the underlying US-Iran standoff remains unresolved. Forecasters are also warning of a developing super El Niño with global impacts expected later this year.Markets: AUD at 71.8 USc, Australian 10-year at 4.84%, US 10-year at 4.45%, gold 4,538 USD/oz, US oil 87.50 USD/bbl, Brent 91 USD/bbl, Bitcoin 73,514 USD.Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/689/china-pmis-steady-little-expansion-house-prices-ease-sydney-melbourne-aussie-super#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #HousingMarket #Superannuation #Property #GlobalMarkets #FinancialNews

Australia's April CPI landed at 4.2% year-on-year this morning, below the 4.4% consensus and down from 4.6% in March. For the Reserve Bank, a second consecutive softer-than-expected inflation print strengthens the case for continued easing through 2026.The monthly moderation was led by a 7% fall in fuel prices, partly reflecting the halving of the fuel excise from 1 April. Housing costs remain a persistent pressure point, running at 6.3% annually.Overnight, Iranian State Television reported a draft agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets sold off sharply on the news, with US crude dropping to USD 89.50/bbl. The US has denied the report, but commodity markets are clearly pricing a resolution. Sustained lower energy prices would amplify the domestic disinflationary trend and reinforce the RBA's easing trajectory.In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week as 30-year rates climbed to their highest since August 2025, a signal that borrowing conditions remain tight stateside despite easing inflation elsewhere.Today's key market levels: AUD/USD at 71.3 USc, AU 10yr bond at 4.90%, US 10yr Treasury at 4.48%, Gold at USD 4,450/oz, Bitcoin at USD 74,765, S&P 500 up 0.1%.Full report and source links at interest.com.au: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/684/commodity-markets-believe-iran-tv-us-mortgage-applications-drop-higher-us-rates-other#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #CPI #Inflation #AustralianDollar #OilMarkets #FixedIncome

Renewed military action in the Middle East is reshaping the near-term outlook for energy markets, and by extension, for central bank policy globally.US and Israeli forces struck Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, just hours after President Trump indicated that interim talks with Tehran were progressing. Oil markets reacted swiftly. West Texas crude rose USD 3.50 to just under USD 94/bbl; Brent is approaching USD 99.50/bbl. Prospects for any normalisation in energy pricing have faded significantly.Bond markets are also signalling stress. The US Treasury 2-year auction cleared at a median yield of 4.02%, up from 3.75% just a month ago. The US 10-year sits at 4.49%. Australia's 10-year bond yield opened at 4.93%, up 6 basis points. With oil near triple digits and yields rising on both sides of the Pacific, the path to rate relief remains narrow.Wall Street returned from its long weekend with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at record highs. The Australian dollar is at 71.6 USc. Bitcoin is at USD 75,906, down 2.1% over 24 hours.Read the full briefing at interest.com.au, where you can also check the latest home loan and term deposit rates.#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #RBA #interestcomau #OilPrices #MiddleEast #GlobalMarkets #Inflation #BondMarkets #FixedIncome

American consumers are the most pessimistic on record. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low in May, its third consecutive monthly decline, with petrol prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures doing the damage. Year-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, and long-run expectations have jumped from 3.5% to 3.9%.Meanwhile, the Iran-US standoff in the Persian Gulf is far from resolved. Despite earlier optimism, Trump confirmed over the weekend that a deal is not fully negotiated. With oil at $97 USD/bbl and Canadian producer prices running 11.4% above year-ago levels, global supply chain cost pressures remain significant. Fed Governor Waller's comments that the next move could be a hike, not a cut, add further weight to the hawkish global outlook.For Australia, the week ahead is pivotal. Wednesday's April CPI release and Thursday's household spending data are both expected to come in elevated, with direct implications for the RBA's rate outlook.Full briefing and source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/678/iran-us-deal-proving-hard-close-us-consumers-sentiment-hits-record-low-canada-battlesCheck the latest home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #RBA #interestcomau #USInflation #FederalReserve #IranUSNuclearDeal #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #FinanceNews #MacroEconomics

Australia's labour market deteriorated sharply in April. Employment fell by 19,000 people, the jobless rate climbed to 4.5%, and the services sector moved into contraction after stalling in March. New business activity recorded its steepest fall in over four and a half years. The data keeps the conversation about RBA rate direction firmly alive.Globally, the picture is one of rising cost pressure. Korean input prices rose 11.3% in April. US manufacturers are running hard, with factory output at a four-year high, but the driver is pre-emptive stockpiling ahead of anticipated tariff-related cost increases rather than organic demand growth. Japan posted its fastest export growth in three months, up nearly 15% in April, with gains across all major trade partners.In markets, the Australian 10-year bond opened at 4.95%, the US 10-year sits at 4.58%, and oil is holding above 97 US dollars a barrel. Gold is at 4,553 US dollars an ounce. The Australian dollar is at 71.7 US cents. Bitcoin is at 77,759 US dollars.Geopolitical uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations is keeping shipping activity suppressed, with container freight rates up 10% on year-ago levels.Full Briefing report with source links at interest.com.au. Check the latest home loan and term deposit rates there too.#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #Unemployment #GlobalMarkets #Inflation #interestcomau #Finance #EconomicOutlook

Oil supply dynamics are now directly shaping interest rate decisions across multiple economies, and this morning's briefing unpacks why that matters for Australia.Key developments overnight:US crude inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels last week, nearly three times the expected drawdown. With around 160 tankers still bottled up in the Persian Gulf under Iranian control, the supply outlook remains uncertain. American oil prices sit at around 97 dollars and 50 US cents per barrel, but pressure is building.In the US, Fed minutes confirmed that a majority of governors are prepared to raise rates if inflation stays above the 2 percent target. That places incoming Fed chairman Warsh in a difficult position, facing a board with a tightening bias at odds with his mandate.Indonesia's central bank moved first and moved hard, hiking its policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.25 percent, well above the 25 basis point rise markets had priced in. The driver: a weakening rupiah and rising imported inflation risks.Back home, employer tax filing data shows 15.5 million jobs in Australia as of March, with wages up 6.0 percent year on year before inflation. That wages figure will be on the RBA's radar.The ASX 200 closed down 1.3 percent. The Australian 10 year bond yield opens at 5.01 percent. The AUD/USD is at 71.5 US cents.Read the full briefing with source links at https://www.interest.com.au/economy/672/crude-oil-prices-determining-benchmark-interest-rates-and-policy-choices-taiwan-export#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #RBA #OilPrices #FederalReserve #Indonesia #ASX200 #interestcomau #GlobalMarkets

This morning's Breakfast Briefing leads with a significant move in global bond markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.67%, its highest point since 2023, while the 30-year yield is at levels not seen since 2007. Australia's 10-year bond yield opens at 5.10%.For property markets, the concern is real. Commercial real estate is already under pressure from weak demand. A sustained rise in the cost of long-term money could extend that valuation pressure across residential and commercial assets, both globally and here in Australia.On the data front, US private payrolls grew at a strong pace of 42,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to May 2. Japan's first-quarter GDP came in at 2.1% annual growth, ahead of the 1.7% forecast. Canada's April CPI printed at 2.8%, below the 3.1% expected, easing some pressure on the Bank of Canada.Domestically, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute sentiment survey reveals a striking generational divide. Baby Boomers and Gen X are deeply pessimistic. Millennials are mildly downbeat. Gen Z is net positive. Homebuyer sentiment has dropped sharply and job loss fears, while easing slightly, remain elevated.Gold is at 4,500 US dollars per ounce. Brent crude is at 110 US dollars per barrel. The Australian dollar is at 71 US cents. Bitcoin is at 76,771 US dollars.Full article and source links: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/670/bond-markets-turn-angry-us-payrolls-expand-canadian-inflation-less-expected-japan-gdp#BreakfastBriefing #BondMarkets #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #RBA #Inflation #CommercialProperty #USPayrolls #Bitcoin #interestcomau

This morning's key themes: energy market uncertainty, persistent cost pressures, and continued softness in Australian property.US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain at an impasse, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil sitting just above US$107 a barrel. That is keeping bond markets on edge, with the US 10-year yield at 4.59% and Australia's 10-year holding at 5.08%.Domestically, the property market continues to send cautious signals. The preliminary auction clearance rate came in at 57.5% last week, the fifth reading below 60% in seven weeks. Cotality recorded 1,939 capital city auctions, down 11% on the prior week.China's property downturn shows no sign of abating, with new home prices falling 3.5% in April from a year ago, the 34th consecutive monthly decline. Retail sales slipped 0.5%, adding to concerns about domestic demand. On the positive side, Singapore's non-oil exports surged 24.5% year-on-year in April, the fastest pace in 14 years.The Australian dollar is buying 71.6 US cents, gold is at US$4,547 per ounce, and Bitcoin is at US$76,661.Read the full Briefing at interest.com.au: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/668/no-change-middle-east-us-data-little-changed-still-negative-china-data-weaker-singapore#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #PropertyMarket #Oil #Iran #China #Singapore #BondYields #Bitcoin

This Monday's Breakfast Briefing unpacks a week of rising bond yields, geopolitical stress, and shifting rate expectations.Australia's 10 year yield opens at 5.08%, up 11 basis points for the week, reflecting a global repricing of risk. The China-US summit in Beijing disappointed markets, the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes on with no resolution, and Japan has just posted its highest producer price rise since 1960, up 4.9% in April.US Treasuries also jumped sharply, with the 10 year at 4.60%, up 24 basis points for the week. Markets are now pricing a higher probability that the US Fed's next move could be a hike, not a cut. That's a significant shift in sentiment heading into the new week.Gold pulled back hard, off US$184 for the week. The Australian dollar sits at 71.5 US cents. Bitcoin is at US$78,024, down 4.2% for the week.Full Briefing, source links, and current rate comparisons at interest.com.au: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/664/us-gets-bump-defensive-stockpiling-effects-china-sees-trump-bond-markets-rethink-us#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #BondMarkets #GlobalEconomy #OilPrices #AUDollar #Bitcoin #Gold #interestcomau

Today's Breakfast Briefing covers a day one letdown in Beijing, weak Chinese bank lending, rising freight costs, and what it all means for the Australian economy.Trump-Xi summit underway in Beijing, day one delivers little: Boeing order underwhelms, shares fall 3.6%Chinese bank lending turns negative in April, 10 billion yuan net vs 300 billion yuan expectedUS retail sales up 4.5% year-on-year in April, petrol prices a key driverContainer freight rates up 12% last week, now 14% above year-ago levelsACCC wins sham discount case against Coles, ACTU lifts minimum wage claim to 6%AUD at 72.2 US cents, gold at US$4,678/oz, oil above US$101.50/bbl, UST 10yr at 4.49%Read the full briefing and check current home loan and term deposit rates at https://www.interest.com.au/economy/661/us-beijing-visit-struggles-positives-us-retail-petrol-costs-china-bank-lending-falters#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #USChina #TradeWar #Inflation #AustralianDollar #FreightRates #RBA #interestcomau

This morning's briefing is dominated by broadening price pressures, with commodity markets sending a clear signal that supply-side stress is intensifying.Copper, sulfur, and aluminium have jumped to new highs, driven by tightening supply from the Middle East conflict. US producer prices rose 6% in the year to April, the sharpest move outside the pandemic period, and US crude stocks fell sharply for the second consecutive week, keeping oil above US$101.50 a barrel.In the US, Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. With inflation running this hot, the prospect of near-term rate cuts is remote. US 30-year Treasury yields have now crossed 5% for the first time since 2007.Closer to home, Australia's 10-year bond yield sits at 5.07% and the Australian dollar has firmed to 72.6 US cents. The federal budget's moves to wind back tax concessions on wealth and property are drawing strong criticism from investors, though changes will be phased in over many years.The through-line this morning: price pressures are broadening, and rate relief remains out of reach.Full briefing and today's home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/659/trump-beijing-us-ppi-leaps-us-crude-stocks-fall-sharply-again-warsh-now-fed-chairman#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #InterestRates #Commodities #OilPrices #USInflation #BondYields #FederalReserve #FinancialNews #interestcomau

US inflation has climbed to a three-year high of 3.8 percent, driven by surging fuel and electricity costs with no clear relief in sight from the Middle East. Here in Australia, business margins are under pressure as cost growth outpaces pricing power. Plus, Japan's household spending is falling, Germany surprises to the upside, and markets are repricing rate cut expectations.Today's briefing covers:US CPI hits 3.8 percent in April, a three-year high, as fuel costs jump nearly 18 percentAustralian NAB survey shows purchase cost growth running at 4.5 percent, well ahead of price growthJapan's household spending falls 2.9 percent in March, the fourth straight monthly declineGerman business sentiment improves unexpectedly in MayUS 10-year Treasury yield at 4.47 percent, Australian 10-year at 5.08 percentWTI oil at just over US$101.50 a barrel, AUD at 72.2 US centsRead the full Briefing report with source links at https://www.interest.com.au/economy/656/us-inflation-rises-trumps-adventure-consequences-global-wheat-corn-output-fall-japanCheck the latest home loan and term deposit rates at interest.com.au#BreakfastBriefing #AustralianEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #USInflation #RBA #OilPrices #AUDollar #BondYields #FinanceNews