Breakfast Briefing | 16 June 2026 | Hormuz Deal Sparks Relief Rally

A US-Iran deal to end the war drove a relief rally across global markets overnight, lifting equities and pulling oil sharply lower. Commodity markets remain more cautious, with risk premiums expected to take months to retreat.For Australia, the standout is cheaper oil, which eases some of the imported inflation pressure the RBA has been watching. The Australian dollar firmed to 70.8 USc and the 10-year bond yield edged up to 4.85%.Offshore, US data turned wobbly. Factory output stalled in May at just 1.4% above year-ago levels, a New York factory survey came in soft, and builder sentiment stayed weak on affordability. Canada looked more resilient, with manufacturing sales up 4.2% in April, and India posted record exports of USD 45.2 billion, up 18% year on year. In Europe, the US is pressuring France over its 3% digital services tax.Market snapshot: US 10-year Treasury at 4.46%, gold up USD 99 to USD 4,321/oz, US oil under USD 80.50/bbl, Bitcoin at USD 66,868. Wall Street closed higher with the S&P 500 up 1.8% and the Nasdaq up 2.9%, and the ASX 200 finished Monday up 1.2%.Read the full report with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/716/relief-rally-underway-hormuz-deal-us-data-wobbly-canada-data-resilient-india-exports#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #Markets #OilPrices #Geopolitics #BondYields #Economy