Breakfast Briefing | 17 June 2026 | US Eyes Funding Deal to End Iran Standoff

The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% overnight in a unanimous decision that markets had fully priced. The hold arrives as Australian manufacturing momentum stalls into mid-year, with conditions slipping back to neutral and the Middle East conflict reigniting cost pressures across the sector, keeping inflation risk in view.Offshore, attention shifts to the US Federal Reserve, which meets tomorrow. Markets are pricing no change, while some economists expect a hike as Kevin Warsh takes the reins. The decision lands against softer US data, with May housing starts down 8.7% year-on-year, the weakest reading outside the pandemic in 17 years.In Asia, the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, its highest in 31 years, while China delivered a mixed picture: industrial production beat expectations, but retail sales fell for the first time since 2022.Markets snapshot: AUD at 70.7 USc, the Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.78%, the US 10-year Treasury at 4.42%, gold up to USD 4,341/oz, oil down to USD 75.50/bbl, and bitcoin at USD 65,878.Read the full report with all source links at interest.com.au.https://www.interest.com.au/economy/718/us-buy-its-way-out-iran-conflict-us-data-weaker-canada-housing-turns-china-data-mixed#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #BankOfJapan #ChinaEconomy #Markets