Breakfast Briefing | 28 May 2026 | Inflation Eases, Oil Falls

Australia's April CPI landed at 4.2% year-on-year this morning, below the 4.4% consensus and down from 4.6% in March. For the Reserve Bank, a second consecutive softer-than-expected inflation print strengthens the case for continued easing through 2026.The monthly moderation was led by a 7% fall in fuel prices, partly reflecting the halving of the fuel excise from 1 April. Housing costs remain a persistent pressure point, running at 6.3% annually.Overnight, Iranian State Television reported a draft agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets sold off sharply on the news, with US crude dropping to USD 89.50/bbl. The US has denied the report, but commodity markets are clearly pricing a resolution. Sustained lower energy prices would amplify the domestic disinflationary trend and reinforce the RBA's easing trajectory.In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week as 30-year rates climbed to their highest since August 2025, a signal that borrowing conditions remain tight stateside despite easing inflation elsewhere.Today's key market levels: AUD/USD at 71.3 USc, AU 10yr bond at 4.90%, US 10yr Treasury at 4.48%, Gold at USD 4,450/oz, Bitcoin at USD 74,765, S&P 500 up 0.1%.Full report and source links at interest.com.au: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/684/commodity-markets-believe-iran-tv-us-mortgage-applications-drop-higher-us-rates-other#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #CPI #Inflation #AustralianDollar #OilMarkets #FixedIncome