Breakfast Briefing | 5 June 2026 | Hormuz Stays Shut as Freight Rates Surge 23%

Markets are pricing in optimism that doesn't yet match the facts on the ground. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed today despite hopes of a US–Iran accommodation, with Hezbollah rejecting the framework and Israeli strikes continuing in Lebanon.The geopolitical pressure is showing up in trade flows. Global container freight rates jumped 23% in a single week, driven largely by outbound China routes, while bulk cargo rates eased slightly.In the US, employers announced 97,000 job cuts in May, the highest monthly total since January and the worst May since the pandemic. The tech sector dominates the losses, with AI displacement cited as the primary driver. Tonight's non-farm payrolls report is expected to show a modest 85,000 net gain.The OECD has called out China's steel subsidies, urging coordinated action to protect global capacity. Expect a fresh round of defensive trade barriers in response.Markets snapshot: Gold up USD 41 to USD 4,478/oz. US oil down USD 4 to USD 92/bbl. Brent at USD 94.50/bbl. AUD at 71.4 USc. Australian 10-year bond yield at 4.91%. Bitcoin down 4.3% to USD 63,013. ASX 200 closed down 1.1%.Full report: https://www.interest.com.au/economy/700/no-middle-east-resolution-despite-market-hopes-us-data-mixed-eu-retail-soft-freight#BreakfastBriefing #RBA #InterestRates #AustralianEconomy #interestcomau #OilPrices #Bitcoin #GlobalTrade #ASX200 #FinancialMarkets