Building Drought vs. Record USDA Yield Estimates: Which Story Wins??

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Building Drought6:13 USDA Preview9:41 Export Sales12:21 Brazil's Crop Report14:20 Inflation is Up🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇🌦 Weather & Drought MonitorUSDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.Corn: 13% affectedSoybeans: 22%Winter Wheat: 38%Spring Wheat: 13%Cattle: 18%📊 Crop Production & WASDE PreviewUSDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/diseaseUS ending stocks seen slightly lowerGlobal corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up🚢 Export SalesUS corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyerSoybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyerWheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)Conab raised estimates again:Corn: record 139.7 mmtSoybeans: record 171.5 mmtSoy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by ChinaBrazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.📈 Economy & CPIUS consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!