Buyer Surge while Inventory Remains Low

Headline: The 3-Year High: Dec Home Sales Jump 5.1% as Mortgage Apps SkyrocketDescription: In this episode of the Morning Mortgage Brief, we dive into a week of massive shifts and "eyewatering" numbers that suggest the 2026 spring market is arriving early. From a sudden surge in buyer demand to the government’s $200 billion market intervention, here is what you need to know to guide your clients today.1. A Record Rebound: Existing-Home Sales Hit 3-Year HighThe National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that existing-home sales jumped 5.1% in December to an annual rate of 4.35 million. This represents the strongest sales pace in nearly three years. While 2025 was a "bruising year" for the industry, the fourth quarter marked a turning point as easing rates and slower price growth unlocked sidelined demand across all four major U.S. regions.2. The 28.5% Surge: Buyers Are Reacting FastThe market suddenly sparked into life during the week ending January 9th. Overall mortgage applications surged 28.5%, driven by a massive 128% year-over-year increase in refinance activity. Purchase applications also climbed 13% annually. This "jolt" was largely sparked by a brief dip in rates below the 6% mark following the announcement of a government plan to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds.3. The "Brief Window" StrategyWhile the 30-year fixed rate currently sits steady at 6.07%, we discuss why your clients shouldn't wait for a "plunge" in rates. Industry experts note that current buyer activity isn't driven by long-term confidence that rates will fall further, but by the understanding that these rate windows are often brief. We explore how to help your borrowers react efficiently in this fast-moving market before these opportunities vanish.4. Inventory vs. Demand: The Ongoing Tug-of-WarDespite the sales jump, inventory remains a significant hurdle. Total housing inventory fell 18.1% in December, leaving just a 3.3-month supply. With fewer sellers eager to move, we look at the "Buy Before You Sell" strategies and new AI tools that are helping buyers qualify for more and close faster in a tight-inventory environment.5. Market Risks: Jobless Claims and FHA DistressIt’s not all green lights. We break down why a stronger-than-expected jobless claims report (198k) is putting early-morning pressure on the bond market. We also take a hard look at a concerning trend: FHA severe delinquencies have surged to 4.7%, significantly outpacing the VA market and creating potential volatility in Ginnie Mae pools.The Bottom Line for Agents: The data proves that even modest rate relief can "unlock" massive demand. As we head toward the January 27-28 Fed meeting, the message to your clients should be clear: The market is moving, inventory is tight, and the "wait-and-see" approach might mean missing the best window of the year.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Stop by every morning to stay ahead of the curve and become the market expert your clients expect.