California Almond Outlook, Water Storage, and Agriculture’s Future

Steve Malanca Joins the AgNet News Hour to Discuss Almond Markets, Water Policy, and California Agriculture California agriculture faces no shortage of challenges and opportunities heading into the second half of 2026. On this episode of the AgNet News Hour, hosts Nick Papagni, “The Ag Meter,” and Josh McGill sit down with longtime almond industry leader Steve Malanca of West Valley Hulling in Firebaugh to discuss everything from almond crop forecasts and pricing trends to California’s ongoing water storage debate. The conversation begins with a discussion about Canada’s newly announced food security initiative. Canadian officials are investing heavily in greenhouse production and automation in an effort to reduce reliance on imported fruits and vegetables. While the move has raised concerns among some California producers, Malanca and the hosts question whether greenhouse technology can realistically replace California’s world-leading production of almonds and other specialty crops. California currently exports billions of dollars’ worth of agricultural products to Canada, including almonds, pistachios, walnuts, wine, dairy products, lettuce, tomatoes, and many other commodities. While food security remains an important goal for every nation, the hosts note that California’s climate, infrastructure, and agricultural expertise remain difficult to replicate. One of the biggest topics during the interview is the outlook for California almonds. After a growing season that featured a hot March, rain during April and May, and significant wind events in parts of Northern California, Malanca believes the industry may see a crop slightly smaller than last year’s harvest. While last season produced approximately 2.7 billion pounds, Malanca estimates this year’s crop could land somewhere between 2.5 and 2.75 billion pounds. “There’s no indication this is a 3-billion-pound crop,” Malanca explained. Despite concerns about crop size, quality appears excellent throughout many production regions. Early heat accelerated nut development, resulting in larger-than-normal almonds. Field reports have varied, with some growers reporting lighter sets while others have experienced branches breaking under heavy crop loads. The hosts also debated their annual almond crop wager, with Nick continuing to predict the crop will finish under last year’s production total while Josh remains confident that growers will surprise the market once again. Perhaps the most encouraging news for growers is the improvement in almond prices. Malanca noted that some processors have recently quoted nonpareil in-shell almonds above $3.00 per pound, a level not seen since 2018. Just 18 months ago, growers were seeing prices closer to $1.40 per pound. At the same time, inventory levels have become much more manageable thanks to strong domestic and export demand. Monthly shipments have consistently exceeded 200 million pounds, helping reduce carryover stocks to healthier levels. Australia’s weather challenges may also create additional opportunities for California exporters, particularly in markets such as China. For many growers facing rising costs for labor, fertilizer, fuel, equipment, and water, stronger prices are welcome news. While almonds remain a central focus, water quickly became the dominant topic of discussion. Malanca expressed frustration over continuing water allocation challenges on the West Side of the San Joaquin Valley, where some growers are receiving only 25% allocations despite reservoirs remaining relatively full following multiple wet winters. He argued that California’s water problem is not a lack of supply but rather a lack of storage. Using data he has tracked since 2015, Malanca pointed to periods when massive amounts of water flowed through the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and into the Pacific Ocean. During portions of the wet winter of 2017, Delta outflows exceeded 300,000 cubic feet per second. According to Malanca, enough water flowed out during those periods to fill Shaver Lake dozens of times if sufficient storage infrastructure had been available. His solution is straightforward: expand storage capacity by raising dams, constructing new reservoirs, and capturing more runoff during wet years. The hosts agreed that additional water storage would benefit agriculture, urban communities, and environmental interests by creating more reliable water supplies during drought years. Whether you’re an almond grower, agricultural professional, policymaker, or simply someone interested in the future of California farming, this episode offers valuable insights from one of the industry’s most respected voices. Be sure to listen to the full conversation with Steve Malanca, Nick Papagni, and Josh McGill on the AgNet News Hour Podcast.