California Pistachio Crop Expected to Shrink Sharply Following Challenging Growing Season

California pistachio growers could be facing one of the smallest crops in years after an unusually warm spring disrupted pollination across much of the Central Valley. The outlook was the focus of a recent episode of the AgNet News Hour, where crop advisor and pistachio industry leader Rich Kreps discussed the challenges shaping the 2026 crop and what growers can expect moving forward. Kreps said the extreme heat experienced during bloom created significant pollination issues, particularly in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Because pistachio pollen becomes less viable when temperatures climb above approximately 85 degrees during bloom, many orchards are now showing unexpectedly high percentages of blank nuts. "We went from over 1.5 billion pounds last year," Kreps said. "I've heard estimates ranging from around 900 million pounds down to as low as 600 million pounds. We've almost dropped to a third of the market from last year." While the smaller crop is expected to tighten supplies, Kreps said processors will likely work to moderate price increases in an effort to maintain long-term consumer demand. California pistachios have seen tremendous growth in both domestic and international markets, and he believes keeping the product affordable remains important. He also emphasized the nutritional value of pistachios, noting they provide all nine essential amino acids along with fiber and other important nutrients, helping fuel continued consumer interest. Harvest is expected to begin about a week earlier than normal in many growing regions. However, Kreps said some growers may intentionally delay harvest slightly to avoid making multiple passes through orchards. A single harvest can reduce costs while minimizing stress on trees and preserving buds needed for next year's crop. Beyond this season, Kreps said growers continue making progress in reducing the dramatic "alternate bearing" cycle historically associated with pistachios. Newer varieties such as Golden Hills and Lost Hills, combined with improved fertility and post-harvest nutrition programs, are helping produce more consistent yields from year to year. "If you get the nutrition right," Kreps explained, "I think you dramatically decrease your alternate bearing." He added that maintaining healthier trees allows growers to achieve more stable production rather than experiencing extreme swings between heavy and light crop years. The discussion also touched on global pistachio markets. Despite uncertainty surrounding production in competing regions, Kreps said California remains the world's leader in quality and innovation. He believes expanding international demand, coupled with continued investment in orchard management, positions the state's pistachio industry for long-term success even after a difficult 2026 season. Listen to the full interview below or on your favorite podcast app.