Call 2nd March 2026 – Stocks set for horrible session as US/Iran Conflict ignites

Middle East escalation and emerging credit stress set up a rough start to the week, with AI leaders wobbling, stagflation signals building, and the ASX skewed towards defensives, hard commodities and energy as geopolitical risk and supply-chain security come back into focus.​Key takeawaysUS and Israeli strikes on Iran have ignited the conflict, pointing to a very weak risk tone for global equities into the new week.​UK private credit stress at a mortgage lender, including alleged double-pledging fraud, has hit confidence in financials, with Barclays flagged as heavily exposed.​The bigger systemic risk now is a potential credit freeze if spreads blow out, which would be a larger drag on the economy than the immediate geopolitical shock.​AI bellwethers like Nvidia and Apple are under pressure as the AI trade loses momentum, even though Nvidia now trades on a forward PE around 14 that could present a buying opportunity.​Near-term winners from the conflict are likely to be oil, energy, defence, aerospace, freight/insurance plays and traditional safe havens such as gold miners and gold-linked ETFs.​Likely losers include airlines, cruiselines, tourism, shipping, UAE‑exposed assets and broader cyclicals as airspace closures, higher risk premia and weaker confidence bite.​Precious metals had a strong week, with gold firm, silver rallying and platinum up sharply, and there is scope for critical minerals and copper to be better bid as markets rethink supply-chain security.​US PPI surprised to the upside across headline and core, reinforcing stagflation concerns as growth softens and adding to the list of headwinds for equities.​The team is staying risk‑off near term, pausing software strategy deployment for a few days as there is no obvious sector leadership to stabilise the tape