Ceasefires, central banks, and currency crosswinds

FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations. With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates what parts of the pre-war playbook – and what’s changed for good.In Europe, attention turns to capital flows and whether structural pressures on the dollar could finally push EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, in the UK, a sharp repricing of Bank of England expectations is already reversing as policymakers signal patience in the face of an energy shock.Looking ahead, all eyes are on Fed nominee Warsh: will he accelerate the pivot to rate cuts, or reinforce the market’s wait-and-see stance?Finally, we take a closer look at how a political shake-up in Hungary sparked a rally in the forint, and raises the prospect of deeper EU integration.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html