The Currency Exchange - An FX Podcast by NatWest

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a whistle-stop tour of major currencies ahead of a flurry of central bank policy decisions next week.Key takeaways* Rising oil prices have become the primary driver of FX markets.* Markets increasingly expect further rate hikes across several major economies.* The ECB remains on course for possible tightening if energy prices stay elevated.* The Bank of England’s debate centres on timing rather than direction.* Fiscal credibility will be an increasingly important factor for sterling.* The Federal Reserve is likely to provide little forward guidance despite hawkish market pricing.* Structural reforms, rather than intervention alone, may ultimately determine the yen’s outlook.Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX StrategyPaul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX StrategyYou can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.This episode was recorded on 23 July 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss yet more sterling outperformance. While UK rates continue to support the currency, the discussion focuses on politics and fiscal credibility as the dominant drivers for sterling over the coming months.The pair also examine softer-than-expected US inflation data, asking whether this could mark a turning point for Federal Reserve expectations and the US dollar. Finally, they explore developments in Japan, where policymakers are considering ways to encourage domestic investment in government bonds—potentially creating longer-term support for the yen. Key takeaways:* Political and fiscal developments remain the dominant influence on sterling, with the Autumn Budget likely to become the next major catalyst.* NatWest’s Bank of England outlook remains unchanged despite recent geopolitical developments.* Softer US inflation could represent an important shift in the macro narrative if confirmed by future data releases.* Markets may have become too optimistic on the US dollar after several months of strong economic surprises.* Japan appears to be exploring longer-term structural measures to support its bond market and currency, rather than relying solely on foreign exchange intervention. Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX StrategyPaul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX StrategyThis episode was recorded on 16 July 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Markets may look calm, but beneath the surface FX risks are building. In this episode of The Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson unpack sterling’s surprising resilience, the political and fiscal risks waiting in the autumn, why the dollar’s rally may be running out of fresh fuel, and what Japan’s tolerance of yen weakness could signal for global markets. They discuss:Why sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, helped by yield support, possible safe-haven flows and renewed UK equity inflows.How UK politics, fiscal rules and gilt supply could become bigger risks for sterling later in the year.Why French political risk is worth watching, even if markets are not fully pricing it yet.How Middle East tensions and oil prices are feeding into dollar positioning and broader risk sentiment.Why the dollar has stayed resilient despite crowded positioning, stronger US data and shifting Fed expectations.Why NatWest expects a slower, later dollar decline through the second half of the year.What the lack of confirmed Japanese FX intervention may reveal about official tolerance for yen weakness.Why Japan’s fiscal and monetary mix remains a major headwind for the yen.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week on Currency Exchange, the team discusses the market implications of the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the outlook for the US dollar following a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, the Bank of Japan’s widely anticipated rate hike, and growing concerns about potential Japanese FX intervention.Key takeaways* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh was interpreted as hawkish, largely because Warsh declined to counterbalance a more hawkish committee message. * The FOMC dot plot surprised markets, with half of participating members projecting rate hikes in 2026 and several favouring multiple increases.* NatWest no longer expects Fed rate cuts this year, providing near-term support for the US dollar, although markets may still be overpricing tightening risks.* The Bank of Japan’s rate hike to 1.0% was fully anticipated and had little market impact, partly due to Governor Ueda’s absence and limited forward guidance.* Japanese intervention risks remain elevated as USD/JPY stays near multi-decade highs, but Japan’s accommodative fiscal and monetary policy mix continues to argue for underlying yen weakness. Host: Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist)Guest: Brian Daingerfield (Co-Head of G10 FX Strategy) You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this week’s episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Dangerfield is joined by Paul Robson, to discuss the major themes driving foreign exchange markets. The conversation covers the ECB’s latest decision, upcoming meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan, and the implications for the euro, pound, dollar and yen. Key topics: * FX markets remain remarkably calm despite an intense period of central bank and geopolitical risk.* The ECB remains cautious and highly dependent on developments in energy markets.* The Bank of England is unlikely to act next week but remains under pressure from persistent inflation concerns.* The first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh could mark an important shift in communication strategy.* Dollar strength has been supported by better US data, but expectations may now be running ahead of reality.* The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, but markets remain focused on whether policymakers are willing to defend the yen more aggressively.  You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 11 June 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week on Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield step back from the day-to-day market headlines to focus on what global FX clients are thinking about the US dollar, geopolitical risk and the broader macro outlook.Against a backdrop of rapidly shifting developments in the Middle East, the discussion explores why conviction across FX markets remains unusually low, how investors are positioning across G10 currencies, and what themes are emerging in China and broader emerging markets.Key themes discussedFX markets: Low conviction and headline-driven tradingBrian Dangerfield explains why fast-moving geopolitical developments are preventing investors from taking strong directional positions in FX, despite large moves in rates and commodities markets.Dollar outlook: Fed on hold versus global tighteningHow markets increasingly expect the Fed to remain sidelined while other central banks continue tightening policy, potentially weighing on the dollar over time.G10 FX: Sterling, yen and commodity currenciesSterling continues to outperform expectations, why intervention risk is dominating yen positioning, and why investors still favour the Australian dollar despite recent volatility.China and EM: The rise of high-value manufacturingChina’s economic transition toward AI and advanced manufacturing is reshaping profit growth, inflation dynamics and currency policy expectations. You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.This episode was recorded on 28 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week on The Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Aditya Sharma explore the geopolitical and macroeconomic developments shaping global FX markets. The discussion focuses on Chinese diplomacy following President Xi Jinping’s meetings with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the implications for China-US relations, and the broader impact of energy market disruptions on Asian currencies.The episode also examines the prospect of Chinese stimulus, and the growing pressure across emerging Asian FX markets including the Indonesian rupiah, Korean won and Indian rupee. This episode was recorded on 21 May 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield discuss the political and macroeconomic themes currently shaping FX markets, including:* Rising UK political uncertainty and implications for sterling* Why markets may be underestimating UK fiscal risks* Japan’s FX intervention strategy and US reaction* Structural challenges facing the Japanese yen* Key takeaways from the Trump–Xi summit in Beijing* The geopolitical implications for currencies and global marketsThis episode was recorded on 14 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly and Paul Robson explore the reasons behind sterling’s strength against uncertainty both politically in the UK and geopolitically in the Middle East. They also discuss Chinese-US relations ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, and the value of the yuan ahead of Donald Trump’s visit there. Key takeaways:- UK political risk may matter more to sterling later in 2026 than immediately.- The Trump–Xi summit could become a major catalyst for USD direction, and Asian currencies.- Markets are increasingly focused on capital flows, reserve diversification and long-term exposure to US assets. You can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 7 May 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore the FX implications of central bank rate holds in the US, the euro area and the UK. They also discuss Japan, where it appears as though policymaker intervention is boosting the value of the yen as oil prices hit new highs. But can such a move work in the long run? This episode was recorded on 30 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

This week Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson explore further market developments amid geopolitical tensions around Iran, including central bank policies and wider macroeconomic developments.Key topics covered:1. Impact of Iran-US tensions on FX markets2. Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy outlooks3. US dollar and yen outlook, alongside market expectations for Fed and Bank of Japan actionsThis episode was recorded on 23 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

FX markets are caught between relief and reality. This week on The Currency Exchange, Paul Robson, Brian Daingerfield, and Eimear Daly unpack how a fragile Middle East ceasefire is reshaping the dollar narrative – unwinding war-driven gains, but leaving behind stubbornly higher energy prices and hawkish rate expectations. With positioning reset and the dollar stuck mid-range, the team debates what parts of the pre-war playbook – and what’s changed for good.In Europe, attention turns to capital flows and whether structural pressures on the dollar could finally push EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, in the UK, a sharp repricing of Bank of England expectations is already reversing as policymakers signal patience in the face of an energy shock.Looking ahead, all eyes are on Fed nominee Warsh: will he accelerate the pivot to rate cuts, or reinforce the market’s wait-and-see stance?Finally, we take a closer look at how a political shake-up in Hungary sparked a rally in the forint, and raises the prospect of deeper EU integration.This episode was recorded on 16 April 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss sources of heightened market uncertainty and puzzle over the calm that has beset currency volatility.Key topics covered:1. Market reactions to the Middle East conflict2. The US dollar and market positioning3. Sterling’s surprising resilience4. The Yen and fiscal considerations5. Lasting themes for currency markets This episode was recorded on 26 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by Co-Heads of G10 FX Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to talk about the ongoing situation in the Middle East. They explore how threats to energy infrastructure might affect central bank policies, even if interest rates are still on hold in major economies. They also delve into what the crisis means for emerging markets. This episode was recorded on 19 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly (Emerging Markets Macro Strategist) is joined by G10 FX Strategy Co-Heads Brian Dangerfield and Paul Robson to talk about currency moves during ongoing military action in Iran. Key topics include: - Energy prices and oil market volatility- Central bank reaction functions and monetary policy- Emerging markets' response to geopolitical risks- Sterling’s performance and UK monetary policy- The Bank of Japan's stance on inflation and energy costsThis episode was recorded on 12 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week’s combined episode of Currency Exchange and Bondcast focuses on the ongoing Middle East conflict and its impacts on currency and rates markets. This episode features edited highlights from a client webinar hosted on Tuesday, featuring host Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy) and guests Scott Livingstone (International Advisor) and Paul Robson (Co-Head of G10FX Strategy). They discussed: - Management of ammunition and defence resources by regional players.- Political pressure on President Trump to conclude this initial phase swiftly.- Expected continuation of heightened military activity over the next few days.- Monitoring Iranian missile, drone, and maritime operations, including possible threats to the Strait of Hormuz.- Indicators for de-escalation: signs of pragmatic politics or regional diplomatic intervention.- Importance of maritime security in global energy markets.- Currency markets responding as expected: dollar strength sterling resilience in cross-currency pairs.- Volatility in bond markets reflecting both safe-haven demand and concerns over defence spending and future inflation.- Key market drivers to watch.This episode was recorded on 3 March 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and its sister show Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield is joined by Ian Vanderhorn to explore the recent Supreme Court decision on US tariffs, its implications for FX and rates market dynamics, and the future of tariff policy. This episode was recorded on 25 February 2026.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss market sentiment for major currencies. Firstly, they dissect UK economic data and the implications for sterling, plus the Bank of England policy and receding political risk. They also cover Fed policy, wider geopolitical influences on FX markets, the price of oil and implications for Japanese yen. This episode was recorded on 19 February 2026. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and emerging market specialist Aditya Sharma discuss the recent India-US trade deal and its implications for Indian assets and the rupee. They also delve into the upcoming Hungarian elections, analyzing the potential outcomes and their impact on markets. You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 12 February 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield dig into the major themes affecting currency markets. They begin by examining the Bank of England’s ‘dovish hold’ on 5 February – and the drivers behind a recent uptick in volatility in UK assets more generally of late.Then they turn to the US, where they discuss the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell when his leadership term at the Fed ends in May – and the potential impact on monetary policy and Fed independence. Finally, they take a closer look at the ECB’s latest rates hold, Japan’s lower house elections, and the impact on global FX dynamics.You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. This episode was recorded on 5 February 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly is joined by Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss some major themes affecting currency markets. They begin by examining how the US dollar has responded to geopolitical developments and provide an update on the Federal Reserve. They also discuss volatility as it relates to Japan’s currency, and stability as it relates to sterling and recent UK data. Finally, they touch on emerging trends in European and Scandinavian currencies, and examine the nuances between currencies and their traditional market drivers.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 22 January 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson delve into the current state of foreign exchange markets. They discuss the recent strength of the pound against the euro, the implications of upcoming UK economic data, and the overall low volatility in FX markets despite significant geopolitical events. They also focus on the Federal Reserve's influence on the dollar, and how political events in Japan are affecting the yen.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 15 January 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson return to discuss the state of foreign exchange markets as we enter 2026. They analyse the recent performance of the British pound, the euro's stability, and the implications of geopolitical events on the dollar. The conversation also touches on New Year's resolutions for FX watchers, Paul's intake of Stilton cheese and potential future drivers for the dollar.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 8 January 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this lookahead to 2026, host Tim Phillips is joined by Eimear Daly, Paul Robson and Brian Daingerfield to discuss key themes shaping the year ahead. They start with the dollar, where 2026 is expected to be dominated by the Fed’s interest rate policy. Should we expect a policy error if rates are kept low under new Fed leadership and continued fiscal expansion? And what, crucially, does this mean for the dollar's exceptional status in foreign reserves? They also discuss how FX markets have become desensitised to geopolitical drama, only reacting when real economic effects are visible. And in emerging markets, lower volatility and a weaker dollar appear to create a favourable backdrop for high-carry currencies.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.To access all the content from our Year Ahead 2026 report, visit natwest.com/yearahead This episode was recorded on 12 November 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

On the back of the Fed’s widely-predicted decision to cut rates this week, Eimear Daly speaks to Brian Daingerfield about changes to the monetary guidance, and how this feeds indecision about a further cut in December. Elsewhere they talk about Japan’s currency, and the structural versus cyclical nature of monetary policy in Canada.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 30 October 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on UK inflation data, the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook, the upcoming UK budget, and the performance of sterling. They also touch on the European Central Bank's position, the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions, the Bank of Japan's policy considerations, and the Canadian economy's inflation data. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global economic indicators and their impact on currency markets.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 23 October 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the UK budget, European currency outlook, US trade tensions, the impact of the government shutdown, and Japanese politics. Phew! They also explore how fiscal and monetary policies are influencing currency movements globally. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 16 October 2025. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent LDP leadership election in Japan, its impact on the yen, and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy. They also explore the potential coalition dynamics and the Bank of Japan's decision-making process amid political uncertainty.This episode was recorded on 9 October 2025, and captions are automatically generated.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week host Eimear Daly is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss the major themes affecting currency markets. They focus on the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision and the Bank of England's interest rate hold. They analyse the implications of these decisions on the dollar and sterling, the impact of economic data on market expectations, and the significance of dollar hedging of international assets and interest rate differentials.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 18 September 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, host Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the current state of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts. They highlight the implications of recent labour market data and inflation readings, as well as the legal back-and-forth surrounding President Trump’s tariff moves. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 11 September 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html 

The Currency Exchange returns from the summer break, with host Eimear Daly and guest Paul Robson discussing recent dynamics in currency markets. They focus on the sensitivity of sterling to fiscal developments, the outlook for the UK economy, and the implications of political risks in France on the euro. They also analyse Poland's recent interest rate decisions and the potential for its currency to track emerging market peers.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 4 September 2025, and captions are automatically generated. For any terms used please refer to our glossary:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here:https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Listen to host Brian Daingerfield and guest Ian Vanderhorn discuss recent developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the strengthening of the dollar due to trade deals, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and the contrasting approaches of central banks like the Bank of Canada. They also analyse the implications of the quarterly refunding announcement by the Treasury and its impact on interest rate dynamics.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 31 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, host Eimear Daly is joined by Brain Daingerfield and Paul Robson to discuss the significant impact of Japan's upper house elections on FX markets, the implications for fiscal policy, and the potential for changes in leadership. They also explore the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, the European Central Bank's recent hold, and the outlook for the Bank of England and sterling. The conversation highlights the interconnectedness of global monetary policies and their effects on currency markets.Remember to subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 24 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson dig into the latest US and UK data prints and discuss how labour and inflation trends are affecting their views on the GBP and USD outlook.They look ahead to what we might expect from the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting – and the potential impact on the outlook for EURUSD. And they consider the impact of recent shifts in US trade policy on markets more broadly, and the market whiplash around media reports about Fed Chair Powell’s fate.NB. This episode was recorded on 17 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Eimear Daly and Kevin Cummins discuss the latest US labor market report, which revealed a surprising increase in job growth. They analyse the implications of the report for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly in light of inflation concerns and market reactions. The conversation also touches on the performance of the government sector and the outlook for emerging market currencies.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 3 July 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, host Brian Daingerfield and guest Paul Robson discuss the recent developments in the Middle East and their impact on foreign exchange markets, particularly the dollar's safe haven status. They delve into the Federal Reserve's differing views on interest rates and the implications for the dollar, and cover the performance of sterling amid global economic changes and the fiscal risks facing both the UK and US.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 26 June 2025For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Joann Spadigam is joined by Paul Robson in a Bondcast/Currency Exchange crossover to talk about interest rate holds in the UK and US. Were there any clues about the nature of future decisions? Away from the central banks, they also discuss the impact of military tensions on market sentiment. Remember to like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 19 June 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss recent UK economic data, its implications for the Bank of England, and the outlook for sterling. They delve into the labour market's performance and the significance of upcoming interest rate decisions. They also talk about the potential impact of political risks in emerging markets, particularly in Europe.Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 12 June 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of Currency Exchange, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of foreign exchange markets, focusing on the influence of the US dollar, recent decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB), and the fortunes of sterling. They also analyse economic data, tariff impacts, and the outlook for central bank policies.Remember to hit like and subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 5 June 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Eimear Daly, Brian Daingerfield, and Paul Robson discuss the current state of global markets, focusing on US trade re-escalation and de-escalation – and the impact on global FX markets. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy. NB. This episode was recorded on 29 May 2025. For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Brian Daingerfield and Eimear Daley discuss the current state of the dollar, emerging markets, and the implications of recent US trade policies. They analyse the impact of the recent tax bill in the US and the political landscape in Poland following its recent elections.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 22 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of global markets, focusing on unexpected strength in the UK economy and the impact of recent US trade de-escalation on the dollar. But what challenges lie ahead for growth and monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic?This episode was recorded on 15 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the latest developments in foreign exchange markets, focusing on the Bank of England's recent decisions, the implications of the UK-US trade agreement, and the Fed's cautious stance. They analyse how these factors impact the value of sterling and the dollar, as well as the broader economic landscape.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 8 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Ian Vanderhorn discuss the recent Canadian election results, which saw former central banker Mark Carney elected as prime minister. They analyse the continuity of the new coalition government, the challenges posed by trade arrangements, and the performance of the Canadian dollar amid the current economic backdrop. The conversation also turns to the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan and its impact on the yen.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 1 May 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current state of foreign exchange markets, focusing on the volatility of the US dollar, the dynamics of European currencies, and the implications of FX reserve diversification. They analyse the impact of US economic policy on currency strength, the outlook for the euro and sterling, and the potential shifts in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 24 April 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this crossover episode of Bondcast and Currency Exchange, Imogen Bachra is joined by Brian Daingerfield and Oriane Parmentier to discuss all things tariffs, and the political situation in France. It's not just markets that are surrounded by uncertainty. How the Fed will dictate interest rates now seems less clear than it did just a few weeks ago, owing to likely higher inflation alongside weaker growth expectations. In France meanwhile, will Marine Le Pen's criminal conviction lead to a crisis?Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 3 April 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Paul Robson discuss recent US auto tariff announcements and their muted market reaction and the implications of the UK Spring Statement on fiscal policy. Against this backdrop and inflation data, how will the Bank of England set monetary policy? And what to make of the outlook for sterling? Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 27 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode, Eimear Daly and Brian Daingerfield discuss the recent Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on updated economic projections and the implications for interest rates. They also explore the distinction between soft and hard data in the US economy and how this affects the Fed's wait-and-see approach to decision-making. The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate decision and the potential impact of upcoming US tariffs on global economies and currency markets – and the ways this is measured.You can also find this episode of The Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 20 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson discuss the current dynamics of the foreign exchange markets, focusing on the influence of US politics on euro-dollar rates. They explore the drivers behind the recent movements in currency values, the outlook for the Euro and Swedish krona, and the position of sterling amidst changing global policies. The conversation highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary policies in shaping currency trends and the potential implications for investors.Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.This episode was recorded on 13 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html

In this episode of the Currency Exchange, Eimear Daly and Giovanni Zanni discuss significant developments in European defence spending and the implications for the economy and financial markets. They also analyse the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates on Thursday, and explore what's next for the Euro and the US dollar. Remember to hit subscribe so you can listen to the latest episodes in this series as soon as they're available and get our views on the big themes and events moving markets and shaping the economy.NB. This episode was recorded on 6 March 2025.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html