Hello and welcome to the double-pivot the world's most agreeable soccer analytics podcast I am Michael Kaylee. We are back as one of those double game weeks at the FPL people have directed He is not actually called double game week in FPL. I don't care But you like to get things right anyway, there's been lots of games and it's not that we have a lot to say about most of the individual games Themselves but they have been very consistent in Reinforcing ongoing narratives and some things that we want to check back in on so this is our check back in from your league podcast We were also talking before the pod about why we haven't been talking about Europe as much and a lot of our subscribers at patreon.com So I don't have it have in the past requested that they get more sort of continental content on the subscriber and get some more in-depth Like weird stuff we waste a lot of time watching soccer we might as well talk about it And we just have not been Compilled by a lot of us been going on in the continent and so rather than sort of try to force something out of it We did watch the classical we have some stuff to say but it's a patreon.com so we will be talking about Cotton and football this week and why we're not super compelled by it. We remain compelled by the premier I don't know what to say it's just you know, there's more money which makes it really competitive than like interesting teams I don't know I can't help it.
I'm doing my good man. Yeah spurs Chelsea United this kind of stuff ready to go Let's do it the music you heard on the way in is the whalers Kelly already plugs double pivot pod patreon.com so I don't even have to do that before we talk about like the really stuff Let's let's not imagine I didn't suppose because I think that was it was that the game of the week between two You know nominally top six teams and I think on one level the result and performances might have been surprising and that is worth Interesting and then as you say on the other hand, I do think it reinforced a handful of narratives that we have sort of already had building this season What happened to spurs and I think this this performance for so while it certainly is you know not directly in line with their performances They have been a good premier league team. It was Just a sort of whole team not really being very good Performance that is something that has been generally a proplight spurs are still right now in third place They they are very likely to stay in third place You know their position in the table has been solid one of the reasons that we haven't been talking about them as much Is that a lot of other teams that are a little over a little under expectations are also sort of you know further down in the table And but Tottenham, you know, we now threw 11 matches and their xg difference is just plus four This is a very different from the nearly title winning level that they played on last season We are through 11 matches and so it is time to start reconsidering I think more closely how far off spurs are from what we expect them to be and and as we said sort of we talk about arsenal It's not like there's something obvious to point to with Tottenham. There certainly aren't like, you know, health and injury issues That this is it this is the team that we expected it to be they have come out playing the style of football We expected them to play but instead of it being kind of great.
It's been kind of above average And that's the fundamental question. Yeah, I mean I think it is probably a little unfair to say there have been no injury issues Kostevsky has not played a lot of minutes this year Especially sort of in the you know the last five six games, right? The second half of the season we have played so far I think what is surprising is that if you were to attribute some of these struggles to not having Kostevsky I don't think we would have anticipated before the season that he was key and so If you're going to make that argument You also have to say well if he is key then Spurs were not as good as we thought they were because they were not as robust a team to injury like part of the Part of the optimistic story for Spurs was oh they bring a Richelous and they have four guys for three spots This is a well-rounded situation in attack so on and so forth and that turns out not to if that turns out not to be the case of the issue is Actually, they need deja on koloseki That's worse than you thought they were and then on top of that like they shouldn't really like you have son and gain You shouldn't really need deja on koloseki to be a creative force in the final third in order to be a somewhat dangerous team Especially if you are solid at the back and I think that we do all agree here the issue was first is attack They have been a good defensive team I think they've been under somewhat more pressure than you would like when other teams have the ball But they have responded to being under that pressure quite well generally speaking the issue is The counter attacks haven't developed into as many clear chances as you like and then on top of that when they are Possessing the ball. They are not really creating very much I mean it's sort of at the point where they're best wrapped to go when they are creating when they have the ball is set pieces in the final third and Like that can be an effective way to be a soccer team I do not think it was the way in which spurs would you would have expected spurs to be a good team?
Yeah, as we've said repeatedly and it has just just you know repeating things that people in soccer have said and Tony O'Conte keeps being unhappy with the way they're playing He doesn't want the team's main root to goal be set pieces They're supposed to be a backup and yeah koloseki has been having a really interesting season when he was fit because he Massively improved the like volume of progressive carrying that he was doing while remaining a good progressive passer He was always a good ball progressor and spurs were getting him into positions to carry the ball into the penalty area all the time And they were they were quite dependent on that it seems like and that's a little bit weird because like in previous seasons They have been able to be dependent on you know Harry Kane picking the ball up deep and playing forwards in and if you've got Kane and son and britar lesson That should be sufficient and it hasn't been because all three of those guys while their shot numbers are not bad in anyway I've came and a rich Arleson and son and Kane are all like point five to point six xg and xa per 90 level I'm like you that's a solid attack But spurs have been getting and also typically they get better finishing than that out of the group of three because Retarleson's finishing has been a little off ends up coming out pretty even on that and so you just expect more out of that group And they haven't been getting it like just a little bit here a little bit there at the margins and these guys are you know Rich Arleson was not a great player at Everton and son and Kane are in their late 20s This is sunny to his 30s now like this is sort of something that happens It doesn't mean it has happened We got 11 games of it 11 games of just somewhat below par play could just be 11 games of somewhat below par play But it absolutely has to be on the table that just a bunch of these guys really have gotten a little bit worse Yeah there is also thing like you would hope you get more out of a midfield that was also bolstered by additions and And part of what happened in the game this week is they had to go because of injury to the 3 5 2 instead of having a front Three and you just get very little if any creativity out of this midfield And that that to me seems to be a problem because like part of what was supposed to happen with countries you take guys who are maybe not Instinctively creative players, but they follow the patterns and the patterns do the work and that is more or less What happened less easy and it is just not happening at all this is Yeah, and so a big part of the story of this game is that Manchester United were able to press and pen them in and Spurs were not able to get control of the ball for long periods of time and when they did they were not able to execute what are supposed to be Quick-developing possession moves and these you know It just requires a good amount of connection between the center backs the wing backs of the midfielders like there's There's a clear ways are the patterns like there's clear ways the center backs are supposed to play out the wing backs who connect with the midfielders who feed either a wing back or a forward running on and those were shut down by United's press quite well and none of the Backline players first first birds have been able to perform at the kind of level that would fix this and We've said you know betting curve and and And Huyvier are both solid but on spectacular possession players. Bisma is similar They have a different sets of things. They are better at in possession But none of them use a star ball progressor and you know Romero is Romero and dire and an a long lay you know all these guys will give them some but none of them is Is a superstar on the ball at the back and then Emerson has not been you know a really good on ballplayer and even Parasic you know they signed a 33 year old and he's given them a lot of value in set piece delivery If you look at the it would you look at like the expected goals assisted and the assess numbers like ultimately you'll take that But a huge part of it is set piece delivery and outside of set piece delivery They have not been getting very much you know open play quality out of paris Each of those players not giving them something like all of them are young enough or parisic well Paris it previously has been good enough that like someone could step forward but this season no one has And so sort of Manchester United I think a little bit here because this was a good performance out of them And it was a good performance of the style that ten hot wants against a team That is a pretty good team even everything even taking into account everything we just said about sirs as you said They're plus four extra if they are an above average team clearly and Manchester United kind of team what they want it and then there's also an all-able thing to talk about but like Let's just talk about Manchester United first generally which is like I feel like they're also not like we should not get Ahead of ourselves at all here. They're not great, but Being good enough while developing a style is a point that not every manager is able to get to and there will still be questions about how Fully implemented this style can be and how far it can take you if you get it fully implemented But being able to be good enough while walking down a path of changing the way a team plays is not a given And I you know the first month It was not a given that ten hog was gonna get there And I think we should be clear that like that question I think has been solved right there's been answered and we have a united team that who knows how good they can be Between somewhere between okay and Barry who we don't know where but A lot of the scalar scariest Taylor projections are out there, right?
Like they would be on that Yeah, we talked about early on in the season that they they figured out quite quickly how to avoid having de Heya's possession issues be a nightmare problem For the team the last couple of weeks they have moved into plating Casamero signing Casamero was a big step But now they are also playing Casamero and against Tottenham You know this was where like the Casamero Fred pairing looked very good keeping Tottenham from breaking and With Casamero and Fred obviously this has to do with Eric's will see what happens when Erickson comes back If he's going to plop back in there and there's going to be issues but right now Bruno as a pure ten giving a ton of pressing and not being the main guy on the ball being the guy you get the ball And then he tries to do something crazy is working quite well I think a lot of mentioned I've been frustrated with Bruno because he is wasteful about like that's Bruno Yeah, you got to do is have a structure behind him and that's what Fred and Casamero is One like even if you are a big Erickson believer guys gotta have limited minutes Like you can't just play him 90 minutes twice a week every week So there is I think tons of room for Fred Casamero and Erickson to share all those minutes Like that that to me does not strike me as a problem in the last ten bucks starts insisting that Erickson has to play all the minutes Uh, yeah, or that like you know, my comedy comes back and then Casamero starts playing no minutes again Which would also I think to be a problem But again, I think tenhog deserves a bunch of benefit at the doubt here given what he the steps he has taken over the last two months the Bruno thing is interesting to me if only because like You want the dude who takes chances to be taking chances up the field You don't want the guy who's gonna try to play tons of hero passes being the guy who moves the ball up the field and This was the initial question that we had about Bruno going back to Portugal But they acquired him and we like looked at his debts and talked to some people We do about Portuguese football and we're like so this dude just like hero ball all the time and they're like yes Yes, he does that is what he does. He's very good at it but yes and There have been moments and setups at United where that has worked Mostly when he's playing as a ten and there have been moments where it hasn't and it has been when you've been trying to find other ways to She warned him in so to me like as long as he's doing it with a forward in front of him and two midfielders behind him And a couple of wingers on either side. It's just eminently live with a ball to me And the worst performance that they have had in recent weeks was the 70 minutes against Newcastle when Ronaldo was on the pitch Yes, you know and then the 20 minutes with Ronaldo They didn't get the result but bringing in Rashford and Rashford has been you know good this season far from great He's had recently he's had a couple of big shot And performances that have sort of brought his numbers up somewhat But he just clearly provides them a lot more in that position than Ronaldo does and it seems like what's the report is today That one of the reasons that he walked off of the walk out of the game against Tottenham was that he refused When he was asked to sub in and he said no Yeah, go away. I mean the thing is and he's not in the squad to face.
It's just right. I believe it's just yep And if you're empowered to do that as tenhogg as it appears tenhogg is and you do that Again, I think that answers another question in the affirmative Like I mean I think a major question we had here was like was tenhogg gonna have the juice do not play Ronaldo but in the working system And I think that was a question that was up in the air for a while And I think that we are now beginning to see it get answered in the affirmative And like I think another major thing that's going on here is that we're a month out from the World Cup And this marriage only has to go another month until the kids go off to college, right? Once you get to the World Cup and Christian Ronaldo goes and plays for Portugal and then he comes back the other side It's January like he can go like he can go jet set off for his contract in the Middle East He can I don't know. Okay, I think legally he can come to the United States now So like that could happen I guess whatever whatever his golden parachute is and he will clearly have one he can rip the court And I think there was a real feeling over the summer where they were trying to find an exit for him for his people were that he was not ready ahead of the World Cup to Do that to like go to the next phase of his career He wanted to be playing at the top of the European Games still ahead of the World Cup So like I don't know if he gets exiled and then gets to like get his legs under him for three weeks before World Cup or whatever It's fine for him as a player.
I think and I think it works for ten hours as a manager and Yes, there is a major like bad inciting incident here But I think sort of both parties unwillingness to make it work coming through the floor now as a Suppose to two months ago has a lot to do with everything that's going on around them and is not about Ten hog coming to understand that the problems will run out of better or Ronaldo coming to understand the problems with the system for him more I think it's it's quite clear. This has been the problem the whole time and what has changed is just the clock is taking He went when he was trying to get out You know there was no one who was remotely ready to pay his full wage package And the question was how much of that wage package would you get it subsidize to get rid of him? And when you're now talking about half a season of that wage package instead of a full season of it It just gets easier for everyone to accept whatever the compromise is I think it was much more nobody would pay the wage package that was a destination that Ronaldo would count It's going to because it wasn't a top European club I mean I think Saudi Arabia teams would quite likely if not pay the whole thing pay a lot more like there's no doubt I think he didn't go there and then like shavi He could happen to win the lottery twice while he was there to make up the rest of the cost There is that as well like but there's no doubt right now like a contract for Christian on all though in Saudi Arabia will be bigger than one at Burish-Dormand or back in Portugal or Like you know those teams were not gonna those things were like if we can get a bargain on Christian or in although we will do it Places like Saudi Arabia Is interested if like Japan is like one of those constellations of teams will be more willing to pay a ton of money And he can accept that after the world caught the in a way that he does not seem willing to before world cup So you know conceivably another path here would have been that he could have accepted being a sub on a good team And you know scoring some goals and having lots of nice things written about him But that was just you know it seems never the path he was going to accept It's pretty clear right that United are just a better team without him You can't press the way they want to press if he's on the field and then that leads to you could they could not have hemmed Spurs in the way they did for 70 minutes or you know without with Cristiano Ronaldo in the field It is too important to a pressing game to have by him from the front There are positions on the field where you can sometimes get away with it not center forward like you just can't Yeah, and then on top of that like he's also just he is he has become more and more of a turnover machine up front the latter stage of Cristiano and although being a great football player involved in getting on the ends of moves and Finishing those moves either himself or with a pass There was no I'm here to recycle the play there was no I'm dropping deep to be an outlet and lay it off to the midfielders before getting back into the box There was no, you know coming close to exchange tricky one twos to like pull the line out for somebody else, right? He was still a good creative player because he was able to attract so much attention to himself And he could quite well react to the attention to himself with a very good ball or whatever but it was still a Ronaldo first context and what Manchester United really do need in attack is somebody who's going to work in the context of lots of players being deployed in and around the box to do stuff and There's just too many times where Ronaldo now tries to be the guy and get a shot off and rather than declining to take the shot after Being unable to beat the man like he used to be able to we'll just take the shot anyway and launch it over or have it deflected Right or try again and then get himself pinned in the corner and like have to really recycle possession There's very like you do not have the moments you need to have where another would assess a scene decide I cannot beat my man one-on-one and work within the context of the offense like he just doesn't do that He doesn't want to do that and if he's not doing that you are just in fact losing possession in an on an situations too much Even during his big late career with a value he produced so early on in his career the value he produced came from both Having this huge shot production and doing a ton of ball receiving and carrying on the wing and then being a solid passer at the end of that But usually just going for the shopping video All of all of that ball reception was big as he aged what's interesting about it is while he became more and more of a pure striker in his output He still kept dropping in and receiving the ball all the time And he could no longer be the kind of absolute dominant wing outlet that that the full best couldn't deal with but he would get involved in play And what has happened this year in particular is he's continued doing that and he's just losing the ball more He was a solid 80 plus percent passer while you know completely like 25 passes a gamer It's not like a lot more than what you think of as an uninvolved striker He wasn't getting a lot of value out of these but he was doing it because he would come to the ball And now he's at c's 74 percent this year and it is just a those several extra ball losses per 90 While not producing that much when you're coming and getting the ball He's really costing a team that is trying to do more in possession I think I think that's been the biggest indicator of Ronaldo not working in this team has been the way that he has you know Ended up being a negative in possession that he didn't used to be and like you know You age these are this is how these things work and then at the same time He's also just not able he's not explosive enough to get on the end of as many moves If you could maybe balance that out or work it out But like both of those things going at the same time has been a huge problem And if this actually is how Ronaldo leaves the team and they can just not have those problems anymore That's just gonna help united at this point.
I mean, yes, there's still gonna need a little bit of depth Right. I mean he's playing minutes for them and they're not like a deep team up front I mean marshy all is just never healthy even though he does seem to be a good fit for this system He's just like never healthy rashford is just like he's just an okay player Like I mean, I think he has had some good performances recently But I think like on the balance of power you know the balance of player over the last few years he's just an okay player And so the like the center forward position still has a lot of questions You know you add rashford and or marshy out into antony and sancho on the wings and you're like all right We all still I mean we mean you still have our questions about antony but sort of as a core as a group There is Certainly enough there and enough hope and enough promise that that is like not an area of the field You should be concerning yourself with for the next couple years, but strager is still like an open question. I think I would actually somewhat disagree with that I mean, I think that at some point like you just say okay sancho and antony are 22 and we've committed a ton of money to them So good that sancho is only a type of six shots this season. It's still a problem and antony hasn't talked in a ton of shots but from an average of 22 yards for like 0.05 extra shots and Both of those guys are just not producing anywhere near the kind of the kind of numbers you need If you're going to have them be For the price that united paid for them and for the fact that this team is thin at striker These are just not numbers that are good enough for a champion's like performance For this united team to take a step forward from you know, we have a problem To Just stop his work and okay the manager has some ideas guys are executing They can win some good games.
They just did this week and they will probably continue to they are as good They've been good in the aeroplics all of that is good But the next steps to the better united team that I think is very unlikely to come this season It's not just improving striker It is also they need to either either they get something more out of sancho and antony than they've gotten and that these guys have shown that they can produce Over the last couple seasons or they you know get somebody different in there as well I guess what I said to that is when you look at the steam and you've got questions and striker Your midfield of fred castamiro and eric is gonna have to be like two thirds of this gonna have to be completely replaced in the next two years still and like To me those areas are pressing and the way you've spent money over the last two years You really are backed into just sort of well. I hope that's an show and Anthony get there Yeah, and the other thing that this is this is ten hog ball, you know, fred especially in the costamiro fred midfield He's a attacker now, baby. I like look that's how this was for Brazil and he's everywhere He's a guy who's everywhere and gets up the field And friends ability to be everywhere is something that's been somewhat under covered over the last few years We've talked about him before in that context where it's just like when you look at the numbers Like he's kind of up there and being a lot of places and getting a lot of sort of defensive production and all this stuff And there's not a real reason you can't deploy that more aggressively Like he's not a great shot getter or any of these things but like Yeah, you could just sort of deploy it further up the fields Yeah, and the team needs more shots And I think that this makes a lot more sense when you're playing fred with costamiro Then when you're playing fred with irksen, which you know, that was one of the big ways they got absolutely busted apart by city Yeah, look I think that what we've seen is a process of adjustment from ten hog And What the midfield adjustment ultimately comes to be I don't think we know yet I think there's like it's a separable question One is given those Four imperfect midfielders he has to deploy and irksen i guess there's not really perfect He's just a little old eric centasimiro fred in the common a How are you going to work them this year to get the most out of them? But then the next question is okay.
What's your ideal midfield look like? How do you deploy your ideal midfield? Can you play it in the way you want in the premier league and if you can who are the guys that can pull it off? And I think that those questions are still kind of unknowns It's just that ten hog is competent enough as a manager to table those questions for a year And bring the other set of questions to the four and try to answer them Yeah, it'd be really interesting as they sort of like build this team further to what degree They are still going to be expecting to get that extra balance of shots from midfield and how the person will work there Or to what degree like they're getting this extra balance of shots from midfield because that's what they need because of the way that they're winging this That's right.
I don't know we will find out but They become an interesting team to watch weekend week out and I think you can see ten hog and the players working out We can we got exactly how this stuff is supposed to work in the premier league they're consistently interesting they're consistently uh, you know compelling So before we get out of here, I want to ask one more question not from that game, which is Are Chelsea better like they just gave off like a pretty disappointing draw against brentford They didn't play well against was asked in villa. I think They were lucky as hell the way that they like it without any question. So what do we what do we make right now? No, no so much around that there's been five champions in performances, right?
So there have been some decent performances What do we make it work? She'll see right now I don't have a clear sense of it. I mean, I didn't have a clear sense of it under tucal either So, you know, I think that you know, it's it's the talent Uh, what's really interesting to me about potter's term so far is how Incredibly open he is to trying this talent in different layouts and trying slightly different things with it all while and you know He's got he's got a bunch of non-traditional wingback rolls that he's worked guys into Um, I think that if I have something I worry about it is that all of this non-traditional stuff worked a lot better When he did have rees James who could just sort of like oh you want somebody who's going back? He's going back to be more a center back.
He's going back to be more a hacker. You want a center back? You want a center back? I will just go and do that that's that's a job.
I can do I understand that and then extend it immediately and Without him and both his sort of tactical flexibility and you know general football ability Stuff seems to have gotten bogged down the last week or so I don't really know but I think that is I think that we are still watching potter try to figure this team out Just as we were watching tucal try to figure this team out and exactly how high that level can get is not clear to me There is one sort of Tactical difference, which is that even when they don't play well now just to generate more shots So whatever potter is doing along the way is creating like a more Typical set of outcomes, which is like when like there are matches where you are the better team But you're kind of getting stuck trying to get by a defense and so you take shots that aren't great And that can be okay like lots of teams lots of good teams rely on doing that Um, but so you have this this matching at the renford where they take 14 shots but have like three quarters of an xg or whatever and that is that is a Fairly typical bad performance for make a team and it is also the kind of thing that just didn't happen in the under previous management Do it. Let's see. Don't do that. They would have six shots if they were not playing well But have you know point point five xg or whatever um, they were much more resistant to the idea of Well, we've gotten as close as we can.
Let's shoot And I think that that is I don't think that either way is more correct But I do think if you're a fan watching What Thomas people seems to be was visually very frustrating and what potters teams do It just feels like trying to score harder. It's not but it feels like it when you're watching it And I think that that's okay. Um, no, it has to improve right like you can't go through the world Only getting points have a five xg is right for even if you're taking 40 shots like you have to eventually be better than that But if this is the path to getting there that seems like it's all right Yeah, and so with tatnam We now have you know these 11 matches plus their sort of feel underwhelming But again not terrible champions like performances that give us this level that we can compare where they were last year and sort of You know look at that with united we have the obvious improvement for the first couple of matches And we're not sort of building out this sample where they are at a you know Somewhat above average average level and you know seeing how that builds Which also we're just looking because of the managerial shift and because the managerial shift has really come with a significant amount of talent shift Like the distribution of minutes has changed. It's just harder right now to nail down Chelsea I think we'll be coming back around to them in the next few weeks Whereas with tatnam and united I think we kind of know where we're at and what our questions are in terms of how much they can and we'll improve Yeah, I think that's right and uh along that note We will be back later this week talking about why we're kind of not into the continent that much Except you should still watch it.
You should still watch seria on pamap plus the games are fun We're just gonna tell you why there's not a ton to analyze Yeah, the games are fun because the teams are all kind of the same level of pretty good Thank you so much and I got to go back first