Cheniere (LNG) Q2 2026 Earnings: EBITDA Guide +17%, Cash To Owners +5%

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026: revenue $5,732M, +24% y/y. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1,804M, +27%. Cheniere Distributable Cash Flow $1.17B on 184 cargoes. GAAP diluted EPS $14.65 - but the $3.11 bar is non-GAAP, and on that basis it was $3.02, a 2.9% MISS. Guidance RAISED again. Reported BMO Aug 6: +4.32%, then -3.62%. Cheniere raised full-year guidance a second time, and the Adjusted EBITDA guide now sits 17.4% ABOVE what the company actually earned in 2025. The Distributable Cash Flow reaching Cheniere is guided up 4.9%. Eight points of cash conversion gone - and the stock handed back its 4.3% pop the next day. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE QUARTER IS STRONG; THE CASH CONVERSION IS THE RISK) — base-case value ~$278.00 vs ~$256.14 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $278 vs the $256.14 close (+8.4%). Cash-flow-to-equity built on Distributable Cash Flow: 2026 guided DCF $5.55B less ~$1.75B of growth-capital drag; FCFE $4.05B in 2027 to $5.10B in 2030; 9.75% discount, 1.25% terminal = $277.66/share. Terminal value is 73% of it. Bull $313, bear $250. - THE PRINT: Q2 revenue $5,732M (+24%) against a $4,916M estimate. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1,804M (+27%). Cheniere Distributable Cash Flow $1.17B. 184 cargoes vs 154; 672 TBtu, +22%. Adjusted EBITDA per MMBtu $2.68 vs $2.57, +4.3%. - EPS BASIS PROVEN BOTH WAYS: GAAP diluted EPS was $14.65, but the $3.11 consensus bar is non-GAAP. Adjusted Net Income $632M / 209.5M diluted = $3.017, the $3.02 vendors published. Q1 2026: GAAP loss $3,502M / 210.5M = -$16.65, their Q1 figure. The basis switched between consecutive quarters. On the adjusted ruler: a 2.9% MISS. - THE ANGLE - THE CONVERSION GAP. FY2025 ACTUAL: Adjusted EBITDA $6.94B, Cheniere DCF $5.29B = 76.2% conversion. FY2026 GUIDE after two raises: $8.15B and $5.55B = 68.1%. EBITDA guidance is +17.4% on last year's actual; the cash reaching Cheniere, +4.9%. - WHY CONVERSION FELL. Deductions between Adjusted EBITDA and consolidated DCF: $0.66B in 2025, $1.55B guided for 2026. Interest goes -$0.76B to -$1.0B (+32%) as finished trains stop capitalising interest, and cash tax swings from a POSITIVE $0.37B to a cost - $0.76B of the $0.89B. The CQP minority takes $1.0-1.1B. - THE BASE THE RAISE CAME OFF. Initial FY2026 guidance (Feb 26) was $4.35-4.85B of DCF - 13.0% BELOW the $5.29B just delivered. Off that guide the raise reads +20.7%; off the 2025 actual, +4.9%. PER SHARE: DCF/share $24.01 to $26.68, +11.1%, while dollars grew 4.9% - 56% of it is the buyback. - WALL STREET: 1 strong buy / 24 buy / 2 hold / 0 sell, 27 analysts (FMP); target $291.67, median $289, high $310, low $279 - the lowest is above our $278. WHAT COULD MAKE US WRONG: the guide implies H2 EBITDA 3.0% BELOW H1 with two trains starting, where 2025's H2 ran +11%. What to watch: UP: revenue +24% to $5.73B, Adjusted EBITDA +27% to $1.80B, 184 cargoes vs 154, guidance raised twice, Train 6 complete and Train 7 imminent, 40+ mtpa in permitting priced at zero by us. DOWN: conversion 76.2% to 68.1%, interest and cash tax take $0.76B more, the minority takes $1.0-1.1B, 56% of per-share growth is the buyback. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.