China, tens of millions infected

China enters second wave Poor data, cases, infections, hospitalisations, deaths, genomes https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn Population 1,412,600,000 Will be infected in next 6 weeks Daily new infection rate over an 8 week period Per week = 176,575,000 Per day = 25,225,011 World meter https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ Actual deaths https://covid19.healthdata.org/china?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend Over the next 3 months Therefore about 100,000 deaths per month About 3,300 per day Population 1,412,600,000 Infection fatality rate = 0.000207 Main variants https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280588.shtml https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/new-stealth-omicron-variant-spreading-fast-in-china/ Omicron, BF.7, (BA.5.2.1.7) Sub-lineage of omicron variant BA.5 Italy https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/29/europe-debates-tougher-covid-restrictions-half-chinese-arrivals/ Flight into Milan’s Malpensa airport Mandatory Covid tests for flights from China December 26 First flight, 38% tested positive Second flight, 52% tested positive Positives to be used for genomic testing Spallanzani Institute, Italy, Infectious diseases hospital It would be better if the coordination of surveillance should take place at a European level Screening passengers from China Italy, US, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan UK not testing arrivals from China 26 direct flights due in January Half a million visitors per year Immune-evasive / more transmissible variant Lots of people infected today Some with immune compromise Ongoing contact with potential animal reservoirs Potential for reverse zoonosis Professor Aris Katzourakis, Evolution and Genomics, University of Oxford I am not going to predict a direction, but there will be a whole lot of opportunity for rapid change Xu Wenbo, China, Center for Disease Control and Prevention More than 130 omicron sublineages, detected in China over the last three months The fact that 1.4 billion people are suddenly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 obviously creates conditions prone to emerging variants Antoine Flahault, Institute of Global Health, University of Geneva Any variants, when more transmissible than the previous dominant ones, definitely represent threats, since they can cause new waves When is a covid death a covid death? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/21/china-covid-infection-surge-puts-end-of-global-emergency-in-doubt-who http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/202212/a9510969ad85461297016f6ad1c87770.shtml Prof Wang Guiqiang, National Health Commission Revised its guidelines, to scientifically and objectively reflect deaths caused by the coronavirus pandemic Only fatalities caused by pneumonia and respiratory failure Not deaths caused by cardiovascular, cerebrovascular diseases, blood clots, sepsis the main cause of death from infection with Omicron is the underlying diseases