CLBT Stock Q2 2026: Cellebrite Earnings - $15M Of ARR, $1.1B Of Market Value

Cellebrite DI Ltd (CLBT) Q2 2026 — Cellebrite is a foreign private issuer and files 6-K, not 8-K. The results 6-K cleared EDGAR at 11:15am ET on Thursday August 13 - BEFORE the open, so August 13 itself was the reaction session: the shares opened USD10.32 against a USD15.25 prior close, traded as low as USD9.58 and closed USD10.80. That is minus 29.18 pct on 36,750,400 shares, 30.9x the 20-session average. By August 17 they were USD10.44. Cellebrite DI is the Israeli digital-forensics company whose software is used by more than 7,000 law-enforcement, defence and intelligence agencies. Q2 revenue was USD131.138M, up 15.8 pct, with annual recurring revenue of USD507.8M, up 21 pct, non-GAAP gross margin of 85.5 pct and USD545.7M of net cash against no borrowings. The shares fell 29.18 pct on the print. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE CRASH REMOVED AN OVER-VALUATION, IT DID NOT CREATE ONE) — base-case value ~$9.44 vs ~$10.44 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD9.44 against the USD10.44 close, minus 9.5 pct. Bear USD5.27 / base USD9.48 / bull USD13.53, weighted 25/50/25 on owner earnings of USD83.2M discounted over five years at 10 pct. - THE ANGLE: USD15M of ARR, USD1.1bn of market value. Cellebrite cut its full-year recurring-revenue target from a USD570M midpoint to USD555M. The equity lost USD1,125M the same session - about USD75 of market value per USD1 of ARR removed. - THE DECOMPOSITION: at the 5.81x forward ARR multiple the market paid on August 12, a USD15M cut is worth USD87M - 7.7 pct of the fall. The other USD1,038M, or 92.3 pct, is pure multiple compression: 5.81x down to 3.94x forward ARR. - THE EPS MISS DOES NOT EXIST: the Street bar is non-GAAP. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was USD0.11 against about USD0.07 modelled - a BEAT. Revenue of USD131.138M missed by 0.3 pct. Comparing GAAP USD0.0252 to that bar manufactures a fake miss. - WHAT ACTUALLY BROKE: ARR of USD507.8M missed Cellebrite's OWN May 14 guide of USD510-513M by 0.7 pct, and consensus of USD512.1M. Guided second-half net new ARR of USD47.2M is 23.7 pct below the USD61.9M added in the second half of 2025. - THE GAAP FALL IS NOT OPERATING: net income fell USD13.105M year on year - USD7.468M operating, USD2.136M lower interest income, USD3.501M tax. Last year's 6.3 pct effective tax rate was the anomaly against 43.0 pct now. - THE SOFT LINE IS CASH: quarterly free cash flow was USD14.521M against USD28.975M, a margin of 11.1 pct against 25.6 pct. The release leads with a trailing-twelve-month 28.0 pct instead. Backlog fell 8.7 pct since December to USD370.4M. What to watch: UP: third-quarter ARR printing at the top of the USD524-528M guide, which would weaken the deceleration case in a single quarter; or the equity-compensation run rate holding flat at USD61M while revenue compounds. DOWN: another sequential fall in remaining performance obligations after the 8.7 pct decline since December, or an ARR print starting with a four. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.